Dear MoveOn member,
A new analysis finds that the GOP can win control of the House next year by gerrymandering districts in just four states where the GOP controls redistricting—a process that begins later this month when the Census Bureau releases its nationwide data.1
States can put new district maps in place by as soon as September, and those maps will govern elections for the next decade, cementing GOP control of Congress for years to come.2
Texas Republican Representative Ronny Jackson was forthright in saying, "We have redistricting coming up, and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country. That alone should get us the majority back."3
Republicans could pick up from six to 13 House seats in just four states—Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.4
The GOP needs to gain only five seats to win control of the House.
To be clear: This means that the GOP could lose the popular vote for Congress by millions and STILL flip control of the House, and it will be very difficult for Democrats to win those seats back for a decade because they are so gerrymandered. Kevin McCarthy—the man who went to Mar-a-Lago just days after the January 6 insurrection to pledge loyalty to Donald Trump—would become speaker of the House.5
But there’s still hope: The Senate can pass a ban on partisan gerrymandering—which even Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia supports—before the new maps take effect for the next decade, but Democrats have only a matter of weeks left to act.6 And they'll have to end or create an exemption to the filibuster to pass the ban with all Democratic votes.
This is an all-hands-on-deck moment. We need to turn up the heat—and then keep it up—in West Virginia and Arizona by blanketing the states with digital ads and adding even more grassroots actions to pressure Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to end the filibuster and stop Republicans from using voter suppression and gerrymandering to take control of Congress.
Will you chip in $5 a month to help do whatever it takes to stop the GOP from gerrymandering their way into power for the next decade?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
As states update district lines following the 2020 census—a process that happens every 10 years—Republicans will be able to draw 187 congressional districts, compared to just 75 for Democrats.7 The rest will be drawn by independent commissions or divided state governments.
That's an enormous advantage, and Republicans are poised to abuse their power with extreme partisan gerrymandering that concentrates Democratic voters—particularly voters of color—into as few districts as possible in the urban centers.
For instance, Republicans in Texas could create 25 solidly Republican districts compared to 13 Democratic districts, though Biden only narrowly lost the state, "making it unlikely that Democrats could win them any time soon," according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report.8
By rigging the maps, Republicans will cement their control in Congress for the next decade.
Banning partisan gerrymandering is the most important thing Democrats can do to prevent Republicans from retaking control of Congress. But time is running out for Senate Democrats to act.
Will you chip in $5 a month to help us launch powerful digital ads and grassroots actions to pressure moderate Senate Democrats to act and then keep the heat on for as long as it takes, so we can stop Republicans from gerrymandering their way to control of Congress?
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
To be frank, the situation is dire, John. An outrageous 65% of House Republicans refused to certify the presidential election results. A GOP-controlled House could reject the results of the 2024 presidential election if a Democrat wins, spelling the end of American democracy.
The future is in our hands.
Thanks for all you do.
–Emma, Corinne, Amanda, Dan, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States," Mother Jones, July 29, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/154996?t=6&akid=303475%2E40999114%2EziY6Q3
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. "GOP House leader McCarthy meets with Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss 2022 strategy," ABC 7, January 29, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/154997?t=8&akid=303475%2E40999114%2EziY6Q3
6. "Joe Manchin's sweeping new voting rights proposal, explained," Vox, June 17, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/154998?t=10&akid=303475%2E40999114%2EziY6Q3
7. "GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States," Mother Jones, July 29, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/154996?t=12&akid=303475%2E40999114%2EziY6Q3
8. Ibid.
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