August 3, 2021

Japan's Newfound Boldness on Defending Taiwan

Heritage Senior Research Fellow Bruce Klingner writes that in recent months, Tokyo has issued increasingly bold statements of support for Taiwan against Chinese intimidation, even hinting at military support during potential hostilities. An expanded Japanese alliance role in protecting regional security is a welcome development. However, the extent to which Tokyo would join U.S. forces in protecting Taiwan remains uncertain, as does the ability of the habitually slow Japanese decision-making process to respond expeditiously during a crisis. U.S. policymakers should engage with Tokyo to remove political impediments to action and coordinate military contingency plans.

Japan’s increasing concern with China’s intimidation of its neighbors triggered a shift toward greater willingness to publicly align its national interests with the security of Taiwan. Last December, State Minister of Defense Yasuhide Nakayama defined Taiwan’s safety as a “red line” and urged President-elect Joe Biden to “be strong” in supporting Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

How far would Japan go to defend Taiwan? In 2015, Tokyo adopted a less restrictive legal interpretation of its right to exercise collective self-defense, enabling it to now support the U.S. military outside of Japan. However, if Japan were not directly attacked, the prime minister would still need to determine a situation threatening the nation’s survival had occurred prior to providing assistance. The recent Japanese statements appear to lay the political foundation for making such a determination if Taiwan were attacked.

Tokyo has reportedly been studying possible military responses to a conflict over Taiwan, including releasing a dispatch order to protect U.S. warships and military planes in such a conflict. Ideally, Japan would also provide logistical support and conduct transport and supply operations to U.S. forces. Since 2019, Japan and the United States have conducted strategic planning and combined exercises in the South and East China Seas in preparation for a possible conflict with China over Taiwan. One former U.S. official said the eventual goal was for the two allies to create an integrated war plan for Taiwan. For the first time, Japan mentioned the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait in its annual defense white paper. Tokyo emphasized that “the stability of the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for the security of Japan and the stability of the international community. (Japan must) pay close attention to the situation with a sense of crisis more than ever before.”

For now, Japan and the United States should continue ongoing bilateral discussions and operational planning. Washington should articulate its expectations of Japan’s roles, while Tokyo should take steps to preemptively expedite decision-making during various Taiwan crisis scenarios. Trilateral intelligence-sharing and contingency planning with Taiwan should be also be expanded. Given Beijing’s escalating intimidation of Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait will remain tempestuous and continue to provide Tokyo with tough decisions. It must fully anticipate the parameters of those decisions from now, and in partnership with the U.S., resolve them.

Can the ICAO Recover After Chinese Stewardship?

Heritage Senior Research Fellow Brett D. Schaefer and American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Danielle Pletka write that Colombia’s Juan Carlos Salazar will have his work cut out for him when he takes over as Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization, or ICAO, on August 1. His predecessor, Fang Liu of China, is leaving the place a shambles.

The Organization exists to bring the world’s governments together to negotiate and agree to practices, standards, and procedures that ensure aviation safety and security. More than 12,000 of these standards are now on the books. But during Liu’s six-year tenure, the Organization has become a poster child of failure, suffering internal management problems as well as breakdowns in performing its assigned role in global aviation. Under Liu, reform languished, and the Organization failed to promptly address growing threats to the safety and security of commercial aviation. Instead, she used her position to advance policies dictated by Beijing (including new air routes instituted in violation of ICAO procedures). She tolerated a hostile working environment for women and whistleblowers, and concealed security breaches that threatened the security of ICAO, its member states, and the aviation industry.

In one of her most serious derelictions of duty, Liu mishandled a 2016 Chinese state-sponsored cyberattack on the ICAO itself. She initially concealed the situation from member states. After outside actors discovered the breach, she oversaw an inquiry characterized by repeated cover-ups. The attack was likely aimed at obtaining access via malware to the governments and defense contractors that regularly use ICAO’s services. But in the absence of a serious investigation, the matter remains unsolved. No one, including likely ICAO internal facilitators, has been brought to justice. Nor were Liu’s leadership lapses restricted to politically sensitive questions. When consultants hired by the United Nations identified organizational problems that had fostered egregious sexual harassment at the organization, Liu slowed efforts by member states to address ICAO’s poisonous environment. Indeed, her failure to protect whistleblowers and address harassment led the United States to withhold funding in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, the former leader of the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China proved eager to please Beijing and focused almost obsessively on denying Taiwan access to ICAO. Despite Taipei’s status as a major air traffic hub, under Liu, ICAO repeatedly rejected Taiwanese efforts to attend meetings as an observer, and it adamantly refused to share information about aviation operations even as COVID-19 spread globally. Her antipathy to Taiwanese membership ranged broadly, from serious actions such as blocking critical communications with Taipei, to petty moves like forcing the ICAO communications team to block Twitter accounts that criticized the organization’s exclusion of Taiwan.

Clearly, Salazar will have his hands full when he takes office. After years in which sexual harassment has been rife, whistle-blowers have been punished, aviation safety has been sidelined and member government complaints have been ignored, ICAO is ready for an upgrade. It can’t happen soon enough.

Related: Click here to read the Heritage Foundation's 2021 China Transparency Report.