The two Census surveys that measure the foreign-born population have recently diverged in unexpected ways.
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** Conflicting Picture of Immigrant Numbers and Trends From Two Census Bureau Surveys ([link removed])
Is there a 'Trump effect'?
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Washington, D.C. (October 16, 2019) – A recent news story in the New York Times announced that growth in the immigrant population "Slows to a Trickle." But it's not clear that any slowdown in immigration has actually taken place. First, growth in the immigrant population does not measure new arrivals; immigrants come and go, so the net change in the total is not the same as the annual number of new arrivals.
More important, the two Census Bureau surveys that measure the foreign-born have recently diverged in unexpected ways. The Times story only reported results from the American Community Survey (ACS), showing a growth of 200,000 immigrants. But the other data source, the Current Population Survey (CPS), shows an increase of 1.6 million in the immigrant population between 2017 and 2018.
Not only does the CPS show more rapid growth in recent years, it also now shows a larger number of immigrants (legal and illegal) in the country. This is the case even though the CPS does not include people in group quarters, while the ACS does include them.
It is possible that President Trump's rhetoric and policies have contributed to this development, but if so, why would they affect the surveys differently? Clearly, more analysis is needed to better understand why the two surveys have diverged.
"Given that the two surveys no longer agree," said Steven Camarota the Center's Director of Research, "reporters and commentators should be cautious when discussing immigration levels and trends until a clearer picture emerges."
The complete analysis is available at [link removed]
Key findings:
* Since 2006, when the ACS began capturing the entire population, the survey has consistently shown a larger immigrant population (legal and illegal) than the CPS. This is mainly due to the fact that the ACS includes all those in "group quarters", such as nursing homes, prisons, and dorms.
* However, in 2018 the CPS showed about 700,000 more immigrants in March 2018 than the 2018 ACS (the newest ACS) showed for July 2018, a statistically significant difference. The March 2019 CPS (the newest CPS) shows 45.8 million — 1.1 million larger than the 2018 ACS.
* In terms of growth, the ACS shows a 4.8 million increase from 2010 to 2018 in the immigrant population, while the CPS shows a 6.9 million increase over the same period. The just-released 2019 CPS shows an increase of 7.3 million since 2010.
* Looking at more recent years shows the largest divergence in growth rates between the CPS and the ACS. From 2015 to 2019, growth in the immigrant population averaged one million in the CPS, while in the ACS it averaged 600,000 from 2015 to 2018.
* One of the biggest differences between the two surveys is the size and change in the Mexican immigrant population (legal and illegal). The total Mexican immigrant population in the 2019 CPS is 12.1 million, the largest number ever reported in Census data for immigrants from any one country. But the 2018 ACS, in contrast, shows only 11.2 million immigrants from Mexico — nearly 800,000 fewer than the 2018 CPS and about 900,000 fewer than the new 2019 CPS.
* The two surveys show a very different pattern of growth in the Mexican immigrant population. From 2016 to the 2018, the CPS shows an increase of more than 200,000 in the Mexican population, while the ACS shows roughly a 400,000 decline. The new 2019 data from the CPS shows an additional 100,000 increase in the Mexican population over 2018.
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