THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
This is only the fourth time in U.S. history that the Senate has been precisely split between parties. (The first was 1881, when Vice President Chester Arthur repeatedly served as tiebreaker.)
Notably, it has never stayed tied for more than two years at a time. Which brings us to 2022 and the fight by each party to push the current 50-50 Senate in their respective directions.
The basic numbers:
Nerd note: this is “Class III,” the third of the three “classes” or groups of Senate seats. A different class is up for election every two years.
These are open because of the retirements of Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Pat Toomey, R-Pa. These retirements -- each in a potential swing state -- are one reason that many Senate watchers give the edge in the Senate contest to Democrats.
Who’s vulnerable? Let’s use the breakdown from our friends at the Cook Political Report.
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Competitive races: 9. These are races considered “toss-up” or “lean”-ing one way or the other. These nine contests likely will decide control of the U.S. Senate.
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Current toss-up races: 3. All are Republican. Those are the open seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania as well as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s seat in Wisconsin.
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Seats “leaning”: 2 Republican and 4 Democrats.
Let’s talk about the toss-ups first.
North Carolina. This is a big money race, both in the primary and the general. Former congressman Mark Walker and former governor Pat McCrory are in the packed GOP field but current Rep. Ted Budd has snagged the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Democrats have some stars in their orbit as well: former State Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley is in and former Rep. Heath Schuler is considering it, though time to decide may be running out.
Pennsylvania. The state that voted Obama then Trump then Biden is a must-watch in nearly every modern election. And next year it is also the greatest pick-up hope of Democrats. As you’d expect, both parties have crowded fields. But keep an eye on the Republican race especially, with former Trump officials and current Fox News commentators in the ring. Democrats are hoping for a well-known candidate on their end and a far-right candidate for Republicans. For both parties, this could be a replay of some 2020 dynamics.
Wisconsin. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has yet to announce if he will run for reelection. Should Johnson decide he wants to keep his job, the Cook Political Report says it’s a toss-up for voters. The conservative firebrand and former chairman of the Homeland Security Committee has won points with Trump by making a name for himself in the Senate as one of his key supporters. But Johnson also has one of the lowest approval ratings of any Republican incumbent,and has raised ire by repeatedly downplaying the events of Jan. 6. Democrats have a spectrum of candidates, from a radiologist who has never run for office to the state’s current treasurer and a professional basketball executive.
Which Democrats are the most vulnerable?
Arizona. Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly just won his seat last year in a special election. The party’s hope to defend it lies with Kelly’s steady, no-news-here approach and the growth in new voters in his state. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey may enter the race, though he and Trump have been at odds. The question is who, if anyone, could tap into continued Republican anger over the state results in 2020 and not ostracize too many swing independents.
Georgia. The Senate’s most junior member, Democrat Raphael Warnock, faces an intense contest. Republicans have interest from multiple U.S. congressmen and state officials, but headlines surround NFL great and Trump supporter Herschel Walker, who seemed to indicate he’s joining the race.
New Hampshire.There is one question above all others for Sen. Maggie Hassan and Democrats: Will the state’s current governor run against her? Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has said he is open to the idea but is taking his time deciding.
Nevada. Catherine Cortez-Masto is a freshman Democratic senator running in a state where the margins are still thin; President Joe Biden won last year by just 30,000 votes. But the Republican field so far is small.
Which other Republicans are the most vulnerable?
Florida. Ten years ago, Marco Rubio was a Tea Party darling. Six years ago, he was a White House contender openly in conflict with Trump. Now he is brandishing Trump’s endorsement. But he faces a high-profile Democrat showdown with Rep. Val Demings, a former police chief who is running on progressive messages on race and gender.
Ohio. The Buckeye State is among the few purple-ish states which decidedly increased support for Trump from 2016 to 2020. This is one reason the Republican contest is heavy with candidates in the race to replace retiring Rob Portman. A former state treasurer, a current congressman and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance are all in the mix. For Democrats, Rep. Tim Ryan is out in front so far, eyeing a potential opening if the GOP picks a candidate too far to the right for the state.
The Senate battle overall
The math here favors Democrats. They simply have fewer vulnerable Senators at the moment and more solid challengers to Republicans. But midterm elections can swing quickly and widely, and Democrats do not have room for error. A shift in public sentiment could easily make their challenging-but-doable quest to keep the Senate more steeply uphill.
FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Saher Khan, @sahermkhan
Politics Producer
After Record Voter Turnout, Youth Activists Turn Energy To 2021 Redistricting – July 13. Young voters of color and first-time voters in Georgia are focusing more attention on redistricting and what it will mean for them over the next 10 years. Why it matters: Georgia’s changing demographics, including growing communities of color and a 35 percent jump in 18-to-24-year-old registered voters, played a big role in flipping the state Blue in the last U.S. Senate race. But redrawing district lines can shift power dynamics and cause confusion, creating new challenges for local activists and political parties alike. -- NPR
Biden Is Reviving An Effort To Change How The Census Asks About Race And Ethnicity – July 19. The Biden administration is reviewing ideas aimed at improving the Census count of Latino and Arab communities. Why it matters: The effort to review these racial categories has been underway since 2016 could help paint a better picture of the growth and decline of communities that the government has not been able to count accurately because of limitations in how it asks about racial or ethnic identity (Arab American activists, for instance, have long pushed to be recognized in a category other than “white”). Experts estimate it would take until the 2030 census to see the changes take effect. -- WBEZ
A Postal Worker Begged for Stronger COVID-19 Protections. She Ended Up Spending Six Weeks in the Hospital. -- July 16. Hundreds of U.S. Postal Service employees in St. Paul Minnesota contracted COVID-19, putting a spotlight on two major federal agency’s failures in enforcing guidelines and protections that could have kept workers safe. Why it matters: Worker protections were heavily discussed and promoted by labor groups as well as OSHA during the pandemic, and Congress debated major relief packages that involved the question of workers’ versus employers’ rights. But as this investigation reveals, employers like the Postal Service’s lax handling of safety guidelines and OSHA’s poor management of complaints led to serious illness and death for frontline workers. -- ProPublica
Odd Couple Unites in Action Against Big Tech -- July 16. The conservative attorney general of Texas and a liberal scholar from California have joined forces in a lawsuit that targets Google as violating antitrust laws. Why it matters: Reining in tech giants and reinforcing antitrust laws are areas of common ground for many Republicans and Democrats, as well as Americans who have been concerned about the growing power of big tech in areas of censorship or the handling of misinformation and extremism. -- The Wall Street Journal
Does This City’s Progress On Removing Lead Water Lines Show The Potential For U.S.-wide Replacement? -- July 15. Newark was struggling with a lead pipe crisis that was three times the EPA’s action level, but an aggressive citywide effort to replace the pipes and educate the community about water filter systems has made the city a model for successful lead pipe replacement. Why it matters: Replacing all lead pipes across the country -- a goal of the Biden administration -- could decrease lead exposure in hundreds of thousands of schools and child care facilities as well as improving health across communities of color. The challenge is how to fund it; the amount for water infrastructure has been cut down in the bipartisan infrastructure bill that’s currently being negotiated in Congress. -- Ensia.com
Left: Geroge W. Bush's dog Spot. Right: Tess's dog Bently, celebrating his 10th birthday today.
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Tess Conciatori, @tkconch
Politics associate producer
Today, my wonderful dog, Bentley, turns 10 years old! Bentley is a brown and white English Springer Spaniel, a breed that presidential families have welcomed to the White House twice in recent years. Almost every president going back to George Washington has had a furry companion, but historians point to President Warren G. Harding’s airedale terrier as the first White House dog to enter the national spotlight.
Our question: Can you name the “First Dog” under President Harding?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: Why did President Reagan need to transfer power for a day in 1985?
The answer: President Reagan was undergoing surgery to remove a cancerous polyp in his large intestine, which required him to be under anesthesia.
“Acting President” George H.W. Bush did not take advantage of any of the powers of the presidency during the eight hours he was formally granted the authority (of course, he would have four years of his own in the next term). The precautionary move by President Reagan, administration officials admitted, was in part motivated by politics -- he had been criticized for not invoking the 25th amendment after he was shot in an attempted assasination in 1981.
Congratulations to our winners: Susan Kupsky and Barry Weinstein!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
