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Daily News Brief
October 15, 2019
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Top of the Agenda
U.S. Sanctions Turkey Over Syria Incursion
U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order authorizing sanctions (State Dept.) on Turkey over its military operation against Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. The order calls for an immediate cease-fire and, in a statement (Twitter), Trump said that Washington will hike tariffs on Turkish steel to 50 percent and freeze ongoing trade negotiations.
 
Top Turkish officials, including several ministers, were targeted (NYT) under the new sanctions. Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien will soon lead a U.S. delegation to Turkey in an effort to end the Turkish offensive. Amid the withdrawal of U.S. forces in northern Syria, Russia announced that its forces have begun patrolling (WaPo) between the Turkish and Syrian militaries there.
Analysis
“1) it is absolutely the case that the sanctions announced—thus far—will do very little to change Erdogan’s calculations; and, 2) it is also the case that if fully implemented the sanctions outlined in the EO can actually decimate Turkey’s econ,” tweets the Brookings Institution’s Richard Nephew.
 
“Foreign observers have been alarmed by Erdogan’s insistence on pursuing an operation that has upended Syria’s conflict and set off a new wave of civilian suffering. But Turkey’s government has been eyeing its domestic audience, too, and betting it could weather the international outrage,” Kareem Fahim writes for the Washington Post.
 
This CFR InfoGuide looks at the Kurds’ century-old quest for independence.
Preventive Priorities Survey
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action conducts an annual survey to assist policymakers with planning for ongoing and potential conflicts and sources of instability. What threats could emerge or escalate in 2020?

 

Americas
Ambush Kills Fourteen Police in Mexico
The attack in the western state of Michoacan, long plagued by drug trafficking and violence, was one of the deadliest (El Universal) against security forces since President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office in December.
 
Venezuela: President Nicolas Maduro raised the minimum wage (Bloomberg) by 275 percent, the third hike this year amid hyperinflation, and decreed that workers will receive new food bonuses.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the rise and fall of the Venezuelan petrostate.

 

Pacific Rim
South Korean Minister Resigns
Justice Minister Cho Kuk, a close ally of President Moon Jae-in, has resigned (NYT) after weeks of street protests over allegations of corruption by his family. Cho was appointed to the post in August.
 
China: The country signed several cooperation agreements (Straits Times) with Singapore at a bilateral meeting this week, including on trade and a youth intern exchange program.

 

South and Central Asia
Afghan Migration to Europe Rises
The number of Afghan migrants to the European Union this year has surpassed (Reuters) that of Syrian migrants, according to EU data. Many Afghans relocated from Iran amid worsening economic conditions due to reimposed U.S. sanctions.
 
Pakistan: Prime Minister Imran Khan ordered price controls (Dawn) on basic food items and called chief ministers of the country’s provinces to meet on Friday to discuss inflation.

 

Middle East and North Africa
Putin Makes First Saudi Trip Since 2007
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Saudi King Salman (Al Jazeera) in Riyadh, where the two leaders signed oil agreements and discussed regional security.

 

Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambicans Vote in General Election
President Filipe Nyusi of the FRELIMO party, which has ruled the country (AFP) since its 1975 independence, led in polling ahead of the vote. RENAMO, a rebel group turned opposition party, was predicted to gain control of three to five of Mozambique’s ten provinces.
 
Guinea: At least five people were killed in protests in two cities opposing a proposed change to the constitution (Al Jazeera) that would allow President Alpha Conde to seek a third term, according to a human rights group and an official.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at “constitutional coups” across Africa.

 

Europe
Renewables Overtake Fossil Fuels in UK
A new report by the UK-based monitor Carbon Brief found that, in the third quarter of 2019, renewable energy sources generated more electricity in the United Kingdom than fossil fuels for the first time.
 
Russia: Police across twelve cities conducted overnight raids (Moscow Times) on the homes of supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, according to the monitoring site OVD-Info. Police said they took several people in for questioning.

 

United States
White House Aide Testifies in Impeachment Inquiry
Former White House advisor on Russia and Europe Fiona Hill reportedly told lawmakers (NYT) that former National Security Advisor John Bolton was so alarmed by efforts by President Trump’s personal lawyer to pressure Ukraine to investigate Democrats that he directed Hill to alert White House lawyers. George Kent, the deputy assistant secretary of state for the region, is set to testify today.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Maksym Eristavi writes that Washington today looks like Kyiv in the past.
 
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