Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
July 9, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Biden Defends Afghanistan Withdrawal, Moves Deadline Forward
In President Joe Biden’s first formal statements on the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan since announcing the drawdown in April, the president defended the decision (CNN) as long overdue and said American resources were better focused elsewhere. He also said the withdrawal will be completed by August 31, up from a previous deadline of September 11. It is still unclear what kind of U.S. support could remain for Afghan forces after that date. 

Biden suggested that the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan fulfilled its antiterrorism function (NYT) years ago. Evacuations are underway for Afghans who assisted the mission, he said. Amid the U.S. withdrawal, Taliban forces have escalated their offensives against the Afghan military, including by taking over (TOLONews) a key border crossing with Iran this week. Yesterday, a Taliban delegation met with representatives of the Russian government (AP) to affirm that the group’s advances would not threaten Russia or its Central Asian allies.
Analysis
The painful truth is that the United States is leaving behind a war that is now much further from a negotiated settlement than it was even one year ago. That changed reality—along with heightened competition with China, climate change, a pandemic, and other pressing matters at home—makes Biden’s decision to withdraw all American troops all the more compelling,” Carter Malkasian writes for Foreign Affairs.

“America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan should be cause for rejoicing. But conditions in the country today, and the historical record of past U.S. withdrawals from similar conflicts, suggest that it will only create more problems,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write for War on the Rocks.

This Foreign Affairs survey asks experts whether the U.S. is right to withdraw all military forces from Afghanistan.

Pacific Rim
Beijing Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements to Support Economy
China’s central bank lowered the proportion of funds (SCMP) that banks are required to hold in reserve, a surprise move (CNBC) that acknowledges the difficulties the Chinese economy still faces in emerging from its pandemic-induced slump.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Daniel H. Rosen discusses China’s economic reckoning.
 
Japan: All Olympic events in and around Tokyo will be held without spectators (Kyodo) due to rising COVID-19 case levels, organizers said.

South and Central Asia
Additional Ruling-Family Member Enters Sri Lanka’s Cabinet
Basil Rajapaksa, the brother of Sri Lanka’s president and its prime minister, was sworn in (Hindu) as the country’s finance minister, becoming the fifth member of the Rajapaksa family to gain a cabinet position. The move comes amid economic hardship; Sri Lanka’s economy contracted more in 2020 (AFP) than in any year since its 1948 independence from Britain.

Middle East and North Africa
Israel, Jordan Move to Mend Ties
Israeli officials revealed that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited Jordanian King Abdullah in secret (Axios) last week in the king’s first meeting with an Israeli premier in over five years. The newly inaugurated Bennett aimed to reset ties between the two countries, which agreed to boost (Al Jazeera) Israel’s water sales to Jordan and Jordan’s exports to the occupied West Bank.
 
Syria: The UN Security Council is set to vote today on two resolutions on extending permission for humanitarian aid (Reuters) to enter Syria via its border with Turkey. Western nations back a twelve-month extension, while Russia proposes a six-month one.
This Day in History: July 9, 2002
The African Union (AU) is founded as the successor to the Organization of African Unity. The AU aims to enable cooperation and integration of its fifty-five member states and fuel Africa’s economic advancement.

Sub-Saharan Africa
WHO: Worst of COVID-19 Is Yet to Come for Africa
World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti said that although the last week of June saw the continent’s highest number of COVID-19 infections on record, the worst is yet to come (BBC). New infections are doubling every eighteen days, and less than 2 percent of Africans are fully vaccinated.
 
Sahel: French President Emmanuel Macron holds virtual talks (AFP) today with the presidents of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Mauritania, as well as in-person meetings with the president of Niger, about French support for antiterrorism efforts in the Sahel. Macron announced last month that France would scale back its forces in the region.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s John Campbell looks at the implications of a French drawdown.

Europe
German Carmakers Fined $1 Billion for Collusion on Emissions Systems
The European Commission fined BMW and Volkswagen (WSJ) a total of $1 billion for colluding to slow emissions reductions in diesel-powered cars. Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz vehicles, was also part of the group under investigation, but it avoided fines due to its role as whistle-blower.
 
UK: Brussels and London clashed over how much money the United Kingdom owes (FT) the European Union as part of post-Brexit settlements. The EU said that some $56 billion is owed, while the UK treasury’s estimate is $48–$54 billion.  
 
In Foreign Affairs, Jeremy Shapiro and Nick Witney discuss how London will need to adjust its expectations post-Brexit.        

Americas
Uruguay to Seek Trade Deals Outside Mercosur
Uruguay informed its partner countries in the Southern Common Market, also known as Mercosur, that it will seek bilateral trade deals (MercoPress) outside the bloc that could include extending preferential tariffs without seeking Mercosur’s consensus.
 
Venezuela: EU representatives arrived in Venezuela (Bloomberg) to study the possibility of sending an official election-observation mission to the country during gubernatorial and mayoral elections in November. Such a mission has long been sought by Venezuela’s opposition.

United States
Health Experts Warn U.S. Is Nearing ‘Vaccination Ceiling’
The COVID-19 vaccination rate in the United States is slowing among adults (Axios), of whom around 48 percent are fully vaccinated, but vaccination levels vary widely in different states and communities across the country. Health officials warn that the slowing vaccine rate will only speed the spread of the coronavirus’s Delta variant (USA Today), which accounts for more than half of new infections in the country.
Friday Editor’s Pick
The Washington Post examines how missiles, guns, and drones that think for themselves have ushered in the age of autonomous warfare.
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