Propaganda of the Speedo ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
Read about the security challenge of preventing climate change.
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CRITICAL STATE
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If you read just one thing…
… read about the security challenge of preventing climate change.

The literature about the security consequences of climate change is already large and growing, but it often feels like it belongs to an earlier era, when “heat domes” and triple-digit temperatures above the Arctic Circle were things we thought might happen in the future. Now that those are current events and there is finally beginning to be a sense that something should probably be done to avert global climate disaster, scholars are engaging with another set of issues: the security consequences of decarbonization. A new article from researchers at the US Institute of Peace seeks to create a research agenda focusing on how fossil fuel buyers can withdraw from the fossil fuel market without causing mass instability among fossil fuel sellers. Since fossil fuel sales prop up a range of autocratic regimes, decarbonization plans will have to take into account the political effects of declining fossil fuel sales.

Diasporas and foreign policy

Diaspora communities in the US vary widely in the success they have influencing US foreign policy. Yet a fair amount of that variation comes down to whether they even try to get involved in the US policy discussion. A new article by political scientists Shubha Kamala Prasad and Filip Savatic investigates why some diasporas choose to make their voices heard on Capitol Hill while others prefer to avoid dealing with US foreign policy issues.

After gathering data on diaspora interest groups in the US, examining historical cases, and speaking to many people involved in Indian diaspora activism, Prasad and Savatic find two compelling explanations for what drives some diasporas to engage in the politics of US foreign policy. The first is the experience of democratic politics in their country of origin, which provides a basis for organizing to influence the US political system.

The second is conflict in a diaspora’s country of origin, which increases the salience of US foreign policy to members of the diaspora. The US is often uniquely relevant to foreign conflicts, either as a driver of the conflict or a potential peacemaker. Diaspora communities therefore often work to limit harms from US policy and increase awareness during conflicts.

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Women pay high price for activism

Human rights advocates tend to run risks in proportion to the direness of their situation. The more repressive the regime they are advocating under, the more dangerous their work becomes. Yet risks for advocates from marginalized groups are often outsized. In a new article, human rights advocate Genevieve Riccoboni highlights the threats women face in the field and how policymakers can address those threats.

In addition to murder and assault, Riccoboni writes that women human rights defenders are subject to a range of threats that men largely avoid. From sexual violence to sexist digital harrassment and smear campaigns, women face outsized reputation risks alongside physical threats.

Among her policy recommendations, Riccoboni urges the US to provide more direct support for women human rights defenders under threat, including ensuring their ability to seek refuge in the US if necessary.

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• • •
DEEP DIVE
Externalities of intervention: Part I

The core mission of peacekeeping operations is, helpfully, right there in the name. It turns out, however, that the introduction of a bunch of armed foreigners — even those with the best intentions — can have some unpredictable side-effects for the host country beyond simply preventing the resumption of conflict. This week and next in Deep Dive, we’ll look at new research on the other things that happen when peacekeeping forces arrive.

 

One group that is keenly aware of the externalities of peacekeeping, both positive and negative, is the world’s leading peacekeeping organization, the United Nations. As political scientists Zorzeta Bakaki and Tobias Böhmelt write in their new article in International Studies Quarterly, UN peacekeeping operations since the end of the Cold War have radically expanded their mandates to include a range of goals and concerns beyond simply limiting conflict resumption. The UN’s focus has expanded in that time from peacekeeping to peacebuilding, which seeks to address social drivers of conflict as well as the conflict itself. In practice, that means UN peacekeepers often conduct programming aimed at improving things like community economic development, social cohesion, and local infrastructure.

 

Another area of focus for UN peacekeepers — the one that Bakaki and Böhmelt focus on — is the environment. In the 21st century, many UN peacekeeping mandates have included so-called “green goals,” benchmarks meant to prevent the resumption of conflict by reducing resource competition and environmental degradation that are seen as root causes of conflict. For example, the UN mission in Liberia has as part of its mandate a stated goal of pursuing “effective implementation of the Forestry Reform Law,” up to and including sending blue helmets on “joint patrols with the Forestry Development Authority.” UN personnel in Mali, similarly, train Malian soldiers and civil servants on environmental management as part of their mandate.

 

Bakaki and Böhmelt argue that these interventions work. UN peacekeeper environmental programming — in combination with overall UN engagement with host countries on environmental issues and work by peacekeepers to limit their own environmental impacts — can actually improve national environmental measures in host countries.

 

The authors focus their study on the effects of peacekeeping on water quality in African host countries between 1995 and 2012, the period of greatest expansion in UN peacekeeping mandates. Limiting their focus to water emphasizes the work of peacekeeping operations, which often focus their environmental programming on water and sanitation issues. It also allows the researchers to draw on existing statistics about country-level variation in the health effects of water quality, measured in “age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years lost per 100,000 persons due to unsafe water sources and sanitation” — DALY rate, for short.

 

Bakaki and Böhmelt find that the arrival of UN peacekeepers in a country makes a significant positive impact on that country’s DALY rate. What’s more, that impact expands along with those peacekeeping missions. For each 10% increase in the number of peacekeepers deployed, the researchers’ model expects one life-year per 100,000 people to be saved. That may represent marginal gains (in both senses of the term), but given the limited abilities of peacekeeping missions, the existence of any statistically significant positive outcome at the country level is notable. Peacekeeping missions, it seems, can make a measurable difference in policy outcomes when invited into host countries during those periods when host country politics are most unsettled.

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• • •
SHOW US THE RECEIPTS

Rebecca Collard reported on how Lebanon’s financial crisis is threatening the viability of the country’s core institutions. Lebanese soldiers have begun publicly complaining that, due to massive inflation, their salaries are now no longer sufficient for them to purchase basic necessities. The army is already feeding its soldiers a vegetarian diet to avoid paying skyrocketing meat prices, and last month it asked donor countries for in-kind donations of basic supplies to keep the institution functioning. If the military were to disintegrate, Lebanon risks a return to the situation of the 1980s, in which the only functioning security forces in the country were sectarian militias.

 

Evan Cooper eulogized former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who died last week. Cooper highlighted the ways that Rumsfeld’s disastrous, blood-stained government tenure was enabled by Rumsfeld’s prowess in bureaucratic infighting and his capacity to avoid critical reflection on his decisions. In the run-up to the Iraq War — for which he was a primary architect and booster — Rumsfeld famously promised that the fighting would last for, at most, five months. Nearly two decades and hundreds of thousands of resulting deaths later, his former White House colleague Andrew Card praised Rumsfeld for being “restrained” in his advocacy for the war. As Cooper pointed out, Rumsfeld is getting off easy, even in death.

 

Durrie Bouscaren covered protests in Istanbul against the Turkish government’s withdrawal from a treaty aimed at preventing violence against women. The treaty — known, now somewhat ironically, as the Istanbul Convention — obligates signatories to prosecute a wide array of gender-based crimes in their national justice systems. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan unilaterally ended the country’s commitment to the treaty, saying that it was being used to “normalize homosexuality.” A range of feminist and LGBTQ groups have been involved in protesting the decision, but LGBTQ protesters have been disproportionately targeted by police.

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• • •
WELL PLAYED

Special for the Fourth of July, here’s how national memory works in the US in one image.

 

Security messaging via Speedo.

 

It’s hard to communicate just how completely off the deep end a large proportion of the US media went after 9/11, but this is a good microcosm of the problem.

 

Rumsfeld’s death has made people question the strange longevity of his major competitor for the title of “Worst US Security Official Since World War II,” Henry Kissinger. Now, though, you can put your curiosity to good use!

 

Automated systems need a stable, “normal” baseline to measure against to tell if something is out of place. Good thing there’s nothing threatening any of those baselines!

 

What even is a “stove-lid lifter”? At least 79 people found out!

 

Swords turned to… well, something that can make swords or ploughshares.

 

In the annals of police looking like morons while posing with seized contraband, it’s hard to top Greece’s leading recoverers of stolen art.

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Critical State is written by Sam Ratner and is a collaboration between The World and Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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