Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your weekly update on our research, blog posts, and memos.

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The New York City Board of Elections hasn’t had a ~ great ~ week of determining who won the mayoral primary. But as they continue to model ranked choice voting, they could’ve saved a lot of time — and gotten quite similar results — by just using our polling and ranked-choice voting simulation.

Seriously. That’s how close our polling was to the actual results.



As we show in our new NYC ranked-choice voting retrospective, we nailed the results for both mayor and comptroller. In fact, our tech team released a memo two days before election day on June 21 forecasting these results, writing: “Garcia and Wiley are neck-and-neck... if Garcia were to advance to the final round, she has a path to victory over Adams, while Adams would emerge victorious were Wiley to advance.”

This was only possible because of countless hours of tireless effort from our polling team — and solidified Data for Progress’ position as the most accurate pollster for Democratic primaries. 

But we couldn’t do it without your support. Please support the tireless work of our polling team to nail the NYC results — and to continue providing timely and reliable polling for progressives — by donating to DFP now!

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Here are some other highlights from DFP over the past week:

DFP in the White House, part… we’ve lost count


You might have caught the exciting news in Axios yesterday: the White House is pushing to include a Clean Energy Standard in the reconciliation infrastructure bill! We here at Data for Progress have been pushing for a CES, and apparently the White House is listening: our polling was cited 3 times in the White House strategy memo linked in the Axios piece. Huge thanks to the DFP climate team — and our key partners — whose important work promoting a CES has made its way to the White House.

(Since we seem to have Joe Biden’s ear, we’ll take this opportunity to make a plug for keeping his full-scale climate investments intact in his infrastructure bills and establishing a truly comprehensive Civilian Climate Corps along the lines of Senator Ed Markey and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s proposed version. Joe, call us anytime to walk through the plan!)


We launched a Child Tax Credit war room with Groundwork Collaborative!

The Child Tax Credit expansion that was passed this March was one of the most transformative economic investments in decades — helping millions of families make ends meet, significantly reducing child poverty, and helping women return to the workforce. But it’s set to expire by the end of the year.

We partnered with Groundwork Collaborative to launch Fighting Chance for Families, a new campaign advocating to make the expanded CTC permanent. Check out our website and follow us on Twitter at @ExpandCTC




Representatives Pramila Jayapal and Marie Newman want the Senate to pass the Equality Act


This week, regular DFP blog contributors Rep. Jayapal and Rep. Newman joined forces in a piece arguing for the Senate to pass the Equality Act. As Reps Jayapal and Newman note, states across the country are advancing hateful laws that would deny the rights of transgender people. Pride month may have ended, but Democrats’ moral imperative to stop this tide of hate by codifying the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans in federal law has not. Moreover, it’s what the voters want: our polling has found that voters support the Equality Act by a +38-point-margin.




Voters support passing the AJP & AFP through reconciliation


Our latest polling with Invest in America on Biden’s Build Back Better infrastructure initiatives finds that bipartisan negotiations haven’t caused voters to lose their enthusiasm for the bold structural changes contained in the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan — in fact, they are strongly supportive of the clean energy, long-term care, and education investments contained in the American Jobs Plan, by +60-points, +53-points, and +41-points, respectively. 



In the same survey, we found that voters want to pass the AJP and AFP together via reconciliation by +31-points — news the White House seems glad to hear.




From Data for Progress
Blog: DFP Ranked-choice Simulations: Mayoral Race Too Close To Call
Blog: Voters Support Passing Investments In Infrastructure Through Reconciliation
Blog: Rep. Jayapal and Rep. Newman: Pass The Equality Act Now
Blog: DFP NYC Ranked-Choice Voting Retrospective
Blog: Despite Months of GOP Attacks, the For The People Act Remains Incredibly Popular


DFP In The News 
The New York Times: What to Expect as Early Ranked-Choice Results Are Released in New York
The Hill: Progressive groups launch effort to cement expanded child tax credit
McClatchy: Liberal groups set up ‘war room’ to push Democrats to extend child tax credit
Axios: Exclusive: White House signals "clean" standard push in budget reconciliation
Vox: The cost of bipartisanship
The Hill: Progressive poll: Majority supports passing Biden agenda through reconciliation
Huffpost: Tax Cut Or Benefit: Democrats Are Giving Parents Money, But Don’t Know What To Call It
Business Insider: 4,000 Americans were sent home from prison during COVID. They repaired their lives, but now could be forced back to prison because of a ridiculous technicality.



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Meme of the Week
Thanks to DFP’s (newly hired!) Press Secretary Ahmad Ali (@RealAhmadAli) for this gem.

(P.S. not getting the joke? Check out this great tweet from DFP's founder Sean.)
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