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Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your weekly update on our research, blog posts, and memos.

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The New York City Board of Elections hasn’t had a ~ great ~ week ([link removed]) of determining who won the mayoral primary. But as they continue to model ranked choice voting, they could’ve saved a lot of time — and gotten quite similar results — by just using our polling and ranked-choice voting simulation.

Seriously. That’s how close our polling was to the actual results. ([link removed])

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As we show in our new NYC ranked-choice voting retrospective ([link removed]) , we nailed the results for both mayor and comptroller. In fact, our tech team released a memo ([link removed]) two days before election day on June 21 forecasting these results, writing: “Garcia and Wiley are neck-and-neck... if Garcia were to advance to the final round, she has a path to victory over Adams, while Adams would emerge victorious were Wiley to advance.”

This was only possible because of countless hours of tireless effort from our polling team — and solidified Data for Progress’ position as the most accurate pollster for Democratic primaries.

But we couldn’t do it without your support. Please support the tireless work of our polling team to nail the NYC results — and to continue providing timely and reliable polling for progressives — by donating to DFP now ([link removed]) !
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Here are some other highlights from DFP over the past week:

DFP in the White House, part… we’ve lost count

You might have caught the exciting news in Axios ([link removed]) yesterday: the White House is pushing to include a Clean Energy Standard in the reconciliation infrastructure bill! We here at Data for Progress have been ([link removed]) pushing ([link removed]) for a CES, and apparently the White House is listening: our polling was cited 3 times in the White House strategy memo ([link removed]) linked in the Axios piece. Huge thanks to the DFP climate team — and our key partners — whose important work promoting a CES has made its way to the White House.

(Since we seem to have Joe Biden’s ear, we’ll take this opportunity to make a plug for keeping his full-scale climate investments ([link removed]) intact in his infrastructure bills and establishing a truly comprehensive Civilian Climate Corps ([link removed]) along the lines of Senator Ed Markey and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s proposed version. Joe, call us anytime to walk through the plan!)

We launched a Child Tax Credit war room with Groundwork Collaborative!

The Child Tax Credit expansion that was passed this March was one of the most transformative economic investments in decades — helping millions of families make ends meet, significantly reducing child poverty, and helping women return to the workforce. But it’s set to expire by the end of the year.

We partnered with Groundwork Collaborative to launch Fighting Chance for Families ([link removed]) , a new campaign advocating to make the expanded CTC permanent. Check out our website ([link removed]) and follow us on Twitter at @ExpandCTC ([link removed]) .

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Representatives Pramila Jayapal and Marie Newman want the Senate to pass the Equality Act

This week, regular DFP blog contributors Rep. Jayapal and Rep. Newman joined forces in a piece arguing for the Senate to pass the Equality Act ([link removed]) . As Reps Jayapal and Newman note, states across the country are advancing hateful laws that would deny the rights of transgender people. Pride month may have ended, but Democrats’ moral imperative to stop this tide of hate by codifying the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans in federal law has not. Moreover, it’s what the voters want: our polling has found ([link removed]) that voters support the Equality Act by a +38-point-margin.

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Voters support passing the AJP & AFP through reconciliation

Our latest polling ([link removed]) with Invest in America on Biden’s Build Back Better infrastructure initiatives finds that bipartisan negotiations haven’t caused voters to lose their enthusiasm for the bold structural changes contained in the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan — in fact, they are strongly supportive of the clean energy, long-term care, and education investments contained in the American Jobs Plan, by +60-points, +53-points, and +41-points, respectively.

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In the same survey, we found that voters want to pass the AJP and AFP together via reconciliation by +31-points — news the White House seems glad to hear.

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From Data for Progress
Blog: DFP Ranked-choice Simulations: Mayoral Race Too Close To Call ([link removed])
Blog: Voters Support Passing Investments In Infrastructure Through Reconciliation ([link removed])
Blog: Rep. Jayapal and Rep. Newman: Pass The Equality Act Now ([link removed])
Blog: DFP NYC Ranked-Choice Voting Retrospective ([link removed])
Blog: Despite Months of GOP Attacks, the For The People Act Remains Incredibly Popular ([link removed])

DFP In The News
The New York Times:What to Expect as Early Ranked-Choice Results Are Released in New York ([link removed])
The Hill:Progressive groups launch effort to cement expanded child tax credit ([link removed])
McClatchy:Liberal groups set up ‘war room’ to push Democrats to extend child tax credit ([link removed])
Axios:Exclusive: White House signals "clean" standard push in budget reconciliation ([link removed])
Vox:The cost of bipartisanship ([link removed])
The Hill:Progressive poll: Majority supports passing Biden agenda through reconciliation ([link removed])
Huffpost: Tax Cut Or Benefit: Democrats Are Giving Parents Money, But Don’t Know What To Call It ([link removed])
Business Insider: 4,000 Americans were sent home from prison during COVID. They repaired their lives, but now could be forced back to prison because of a ridiculous technicality. ([link removed])

On Social
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Donate
Give us money ([link removed]) . No, seriously, give us money ([link removed]) .

Meme of the Week
Thanks to DFP’s (newly hired!) Press Secretary Ahmad Ali (@RealAhmadAli ([link removed]) ) for this gem.
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(P.S. not getting the joke? Check out this gem of a tweet ([link removed]) from DFP's founder Sean.)
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