Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
July 2, 2021
Editor’s note: There will be no Daily Brief on Monday, July 5, in observance of Independence Day.
Top of the Agenda
130 Countries Back Global Tax Overhaul
In a breakthrough deal, 130 countries agreed to back (Politico) a 15 percent minimum corporate tax rate and force the world’s largest companies to pay taxes in countries where their goods and services are sold, even in countries where the companies lack a physical presence. 

The preliminary agreement, spearheaded by Washington and negotiated at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), was accepted by large economies (NYT) that were previously wary of such a deal, including China, India, and Russia. Barbados, Ireland, and seven other low-tax jurisdictions objected to the agreement, arguing it would undermine their sovereignty. Exemptions to the deal are still being negotiated, and currently stand to benefit (FT) the shipping industry and tangible assets such as machinery. The deal is expected to be finalized in October, after which the U.S. Congress and other national legislatures will need to approve it.
Analysis
“[The deal] requires an unprecedented degree of cooperation and coordination among countries, not just in the design of rules but in their application, permanently,” Ernst & Young’s Barbara Angus tells the Washington Post

“[President Joe Biden’s] promise of a ‘foreign policy for the middle class’ is meant to show that global engagement can pay for working families, and his push for a global minimum tax would, administration officials argue, help democracies invest more in their citizens,” Johns Hopkins University’s Hal Brands writes for Foreign Affairs.

This Virtual Meeting discusses the elements and consequences of a global minimum tax rate.

Pacific Rim
U.S. Researchers: Chinese Ballistic Missile Silos Under Construction
Researchers from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey said satellites appeared to show the construction (WaPo) of 119 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos in China’s northwestern Gansu Province. China’s foreign ministry and its embassy in Washington did not respond to a Washington Post request for comment about the apparent silos.
 
Japan: Tokyo will hold a municipal assembly election (Kyodo) on Sunday that could serve as a preview to a parliamentary election later this year. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party is leading in polls (Bloomberg).
 
For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR’s Sheila A. Smith looks at how Suga was faring before the start of Japan’s difficult summer.

South and Central Asia
Bagram Airfield Passed From U.S. to Afghan Control
The last U.S. troops departed (TOLOnews) from Bagram Airfield, the largest base used by American forces in Afghanistan over the past twenty years. The base is now under the control of the Afghan military. 

CFR’s Max Boot looks at the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: Chinese-speaking hackers from a group called IndigoZebra recently tried to breach (VOA) the Afghan National Security Council’s computer networks, according to cybersecurity firm Check Point Research. Little is known about IndigoZebra, which Check Point said previously targeted political entities in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a Voice of America request for comment about the report.

Middle East and North Africa
Israel Strikes Hamas Site in Response to Incendiary Balloons
Israeli aircraft bombed a Hamas weapons-manufacturing site (Reuters) in response to incendiary balloons launched from Gaza, Israel’s military said. No casualties were immediately reported. Egypt and the United Nations have increased their efforts to mediate between Israel and Hamas.
 
Iran: The country’s supreme leader has promoted hard-line Islamic cleric (Al-Monitor) Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei to serve as head of its judiciary after the departure of President-Elect Ebrahim Raisi, who is set to take office in August.
This Day in History: July 2, 2000
Vicente Fox of the National Action Party is elected president of Mexico, ending seventy-one years of one-party rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Bridge Enabling Aid to Tigray Destroyed
A bridge serving as a vital food supply route to Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region has been destroyed (AP), aid groups said. The cause of the destruction was not immediately clear, but it hampers aid to a region facing famine conditions.
 
South Africa: The top court ruled (News24) that President Cyril Ramaphosa did not willfully mislead Parliament about a donation to his 2017 campaign, and that he did not personally benefit from the donation.

Europe
Turkey Withdraws From Treaty on Violence Against Women
Thousands of people yesterday protested Turkey’s withdrawal (DW) from the Istanbul Convention, a treaty to prevent violence against women. Earlier this week, a Turkish court rejected a request (Hurriyet Daily News) to halt the withdrawal.

Americas
Washington Publishes List of Corrupt Actors in Central America
The U.S. State Department published a list (WaPo) of current and former officials in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras who it suspects of corruption and pulled the U.S. visas of those named. The list includes former Honduran President Porfirio Lobo Sosa and his wife.
 
CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil writes that the fight against corruption in Central America needs to get ugly.
 
Brazil: Tens of thousands of people are expected to protest against President Jair Bolsonaro (Guardian) this weekend after a series of scandals related to corruption in COVID-19 vaccine contracts. A group of left- and right-wing opponents filed a new impeachment petition (MercoPress) against Bolsonaro on Wednesday.

United States
Supreme Court Upholds Restrictions on Voting in Arizona
The Supreme Court ruled that two provisions of an Arizona law that restricts how ballots can be cast in elections do not violate (CNN) the 1965 Voting Rights Act. President Biden said he is “deeply disappointed” in the ruling and has called new restrictions on voting in several U.S. states an “assault on democracy.”
Friday Editor’s Pick
This New York Times investigation uses rioters’ videos and police radio communications to recreate the January 6 Capitol insurrection.
Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street - New York, NY 10065
Shop the CFR store
Council on Foreign Relations

.

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp