Afghanistan’s government could collapse as soon as six months after U.S. forces finish withdrawing from the country, according to a new assessment by the U.S. intelligence community, unnamed officials told the Wall Street Journal. As the Taliban gains territory, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrived in Washington ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden (TOLOnews) tomorrow. 
 
U.S. intelligence experts previously estimated that the Afghan government could survive for as long as two years after the withdrawal, but last week shortened that timeline to between six and twelve months. Intra-Afghan peace talks that were promised in a February 2020 agreement between Washington and the Taliban have stalled, and the militant group now claims control (AFP) of at least 80 of Afghanistan’s 421 districts. Ghani and Biden are expected to discuss what U.S. support for Afghanistan will look like (DefenseOne) after the troop withdrawal is complete. Biden is also under pressure to announce a plan for the evacuation of Afghans who worked as translators for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces during the war. 

China filed a lawsuit (AFP) at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Australian antidumping measures on Chinese-built goods such as train wheels and wind turbines. The move comes a week after Australia challenged Chinese tariffs on wine imports. China-Australia tensions have risen in recent months over Australia’s calls for deeper investigations into COVID-19’s origin, among other issues.
  
China: Washington is seeking high-level engagement with Beijing officials, the Financial Times reports, including a potential meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, visit to China by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, and call between the countries’ presidents.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is holding the first talks (Hindustan Times) with political leaders from India-administered Jammu and Kashmir since the central government revoked the region’s special status in 2019. 

Nizar Banat, an outspoken critic of the Palestinian Authority (PA), died when Palestinian security forces arrested him at his home in the West Bank. His cousin told the Associated Press they beat Nizar with an iron bar during the arrest. UN and European Union representatives called for a full investigation of Banat’s death.
 
Syria: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the Security Council to extend permission (VOA) to deliver cross-border aid from Turkey into northwestern Syria, an area outside government control where some 3.4 million people live, for another year. Russia and China questioned the need for the operation, arguing that aid should be delivered into the area from regime-controlled Damascus.

A government air strike hit a busy market in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, killing dozens of people, medics and witnesses told the New York Times. The incident appears to be one of the deadliest single episodes of the eight-month conflict between the federal government and Tigrayan forces.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin writes the conflict in Tigray demands a committed diplomatic response.
 
Ivory Coast: A court sentenced former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro in absentia (Al Jazeera) to life in prison on charges of planning a coup in 2019. Soro has been exiled in Europe for around two years.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have suggested that the EU hold a summit with Moscow (FT) for the first time since 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea. The leaders aim to open communication channels with Russia so the EU can have a unified policy toward Moscow.
 
Russia: Temperatures in Moscow broke a 1901 record for June (ABC), reaching 94.6°F. Air temperature in Saskylakh, in the Arctic Circle, registered at almost 90°F, the hottest since 1936.

Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles resigned (Folha de Sao Paulo) amid a probe of his alleged involvement in an illegal logging scheme. He was widely criticized by environmentalists (WSJ) for overseeing a rise in deforestation.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Brian Winter looks at Brazil’s dubious pledges of climate stewardship.
 
Cuba: The United States opposed a resolution (NYT) at the UN Security Council that condemned the U.S. embargo on Cuba, signaling Biden’s reluctance to quickly undo his predecessor’s tough stance toward the country.

As part of an effort to counter an uptick in violent crimes (NPR), the White House announced new funding for local law enforcement agencies, harsher penalties for gun dealers who break federal laws, and plans to invest in community violence prevention programs.