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Following an unprecedented heat wave across the Western United States, wildfire fuel conditions have worsened and wind gusts and incredibly dry humidity have led to a critical fire threat. The resulting high fire danger came to fruition over the past weekend as multiple wildfires broke out in states across the West. Yesterday, 7 million people were under red flag warnings across the region.
Fires from this weekend are burning in California, Colorado, Oregon, and Arizona. In Arizona, the city of Flagstaff is threatened by wildfire, and the national forest surrounding it has announced a full closure set to begin later this week. The closure would be the first since 2006. At the same time, the Telegraph Fire has become the sixth-largest fire in Arizona’s history.
The outlook moving forward doesn't look much better. Climate change continues to exacerbate fire season risk factors, such as drought, heat waves, and even lightning strikes. Heat waves are now three times more likely compared to 100 years ago, and more than 83 percent of the West is in a drought. This is concerning as vegetation moisture content is closely tied to a fire's spread rate: in other words, when fuels are critically dry, as they are now, fires can get much bigger much faster. With fire season already increased by 75 days across the Sierras, it's only expected to keep growing longer and more intense. As the gap closes, experts say there isn't so much a defined wildfire season in the West anymore, but instead it lasts year round.
Even with an awareness of climate change impacts and the knowledge that the stage is set for a bad season, making predictions is tough and relies on assessing both risk factors and wild cards such as weather and people's behaviors. One forecast is that up to 9.5 million acres could burn this year, 140% of the 10-year average (which is still not as much as last year, when more than 10 million acres were scorched). The potential for “significant fire activity” is “above normal” for pretty much all of the West at some point this year.
Although the outlook for this season is scary, there is some hope in the form of technology innovation that could drive smarter firefighting. A group of experts recently discussed solutions such as accessible fire technology, data sharing and coordination, private-public partnerships, and local infrastructure improvements. Even if technology can lend a hand, it's also time for everyone in the West to be careful as we all hold our breath to see what the rest of the summer may bring.
*It's always wildfire season now.
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Tracy Stone-Manning is the right leader at the right time for the BLM. She is passionate about public lands and has the experience to bring people together to find durable solutions. Without a Senate confirmed director for four years, the BLM needs a leader who will listen, collaborate, and lead the agency in fulfilling its multiple-use mandate and the day-to-day operations of managing our public lands. She has demonstrated ability to work constructively with all public land stakeholders.”
