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U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet at the start of the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange on June 16, 2021 in Geneva, Switzerland. (Pool/Keystone via Getty Images)
Even before setting foot in Geneva for his summit with President Joe Biden earlier this week, President Vladimir Putin already had the upper hand. Biden's recent decision to waive U.S. sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which enables the free flow of natural gas from Russia to Germany, is an enormous gift to the Kremlin because it increases Europe's energy reliance on Russia—at the expense of our democratic partners in the Baltic states and Ukraine.
The consequences of this strategic error are grave. This week, Hudson Senior Fellows Rebeccah Heinrichs and Peter Rough were joined by Polish Institute of International Affairs' Senior Analyst Bartosz Bieliszczuk for an incisive look at the global implications of Nord Stream 2.
See key takeaways from their discussion below, and please join us next week for an interview with Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Taranjit Singh Sandhu and a discussion of Iran’s undeclared nuclear sites.
Key Takeaways
Featured quotes from the Hudson event, The Future of the Russian Nord Stream 2 Pipeline.
Empowering Russia, Undermining the EU
Peter Rough: At present, Russia cannot permanently cut gas flows through Ukraine and still sell its gas. In 2019, around three quarters of the Russian gas giant Gazprom's exports went to the European Union. So if Gazprom cut gas to the Ukraine, it would jeopardize its European market, on which it is highly dependent.
By building Nord Stream 2, which pipes gas from Russia across the Baltic Sea directly to Germany, thereby bypassing Eastern Europe, Ukraine becomes far less important as a geopolitical actor, to Brussels, to Paris, and to Berlin. This downgrades Ukraine, a frontier state behind the Iron Curtain back in the Cold War era, in a major way.
Nord Stream 2 is undermining a decade’s-long process within the European Union to establish a liberalized single energy policy [where] no single actor controls the production, transportation, and distribution of energy.
A Threat to the NATO Alliance
Rebeccah Heinrichs: While we’re trying to get NATO countries to contribute more to collective defense and security, [countries like Germany] are enriching the very country that poses the greatest threat to the alliance, which is Russia. Not only is it depriving Eastern Central European countries of this energy revenue, but it is enriching the Russians. Which they are then using in part to invest in the very weapons system that they’re using to threaten and coerce our NATO allies.
Russian Influence on the German Political Elite
Bartosz Bieliszczuk: What is more worrying, is the influence of Russia on a German political elite. [There is] the so-called “gas directive,” which is European legislation that imposes rules on the owners of natural gas infrastructure, [to ensure it is] operated in a transparent way. Back in 2015, Vice Chancellor of Germany Sigmar Gabriel visited the Kremlin and promised that the Nord Stream 2 will not be subject of this gas directive regulation. And for years, Germany did everything they could to block implementation of this gas directive.
After the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, German leaders started to ensure that Nord Stream 2 construction would not be affected. It’s not only about German politicians. Our former Austrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, after she completed her mission as a minister, was nominated to a post at the Rosneft oil company, which is run by Putin’s crony, Mr. Igor Sechin. This raises serious questions about the influence or leverage Russia has on the Western life, and how this "carrot" could be used in the future.
Quotes have been edited for length and clarity.
Go Deeper
Biden’s Personal Touch Doesn’t Amount to a Foreign Policy
President Trump's rhetoric toward Putin fueled the belief that the U.S. was giving Russia a free hand. But in comparison to Biden's diplomatic strategy, the Trump administration was tougher on Russia in many ways, writes Mike Watson in the Wall Street Journal. In matters of foreign policy, actions ultimately speak louder than words.
It's Time for Biden to Get Tough on Russia
From assassinations and cyberattacks to poisonings and crackdowns, Russia has rarely missed an opportunity to undermine the West, Tim Morrison and Peter Rough argue in National Review. If the White House wants a stable relationship with Russia, the Biden administration must reestablish its own credibility by standing up to Russia, and dispense with the quixotic dream of bilateral cooperation underwritten by U.S. concessions.
By waiving U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2, Biden has left NATO more divided and its vulnerable members weakened, writes Rebeccah Heinrichs in the Washington Examiner. If the administration is serious about strengthening alliances in Europe, it needs to lean on Germany to reverse course before it is trapped in the Kremlin's orbit.
