Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
June 18, 2021
There will be no Daily Brief on Monday, June 21, in observance of Juneteenth.
Top of the Agenda
Controversial Judiciary Chief Is Apparent Front-Runner in Iranian Election
Iran holds a presidential election today (Al Jazeera) in which Ebrahim Raisi, who heads the country’s judiciary and is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is widely viewed as the front-runner.
 
Raisi is under U.S. sanctions (CNN) for overseeing the deaths of political prisoners in 1988 and suppressing the 2009 Green Movement protests. Turnout in the election is expected to be low amid an economic crisis, the pandemic, and calls to boycott the vote. Iran’s Guardian Council, which vets presidential candidates, barred hundreds of people from competing. Many observers say the council has engineered the election in Raisi’s favor. Those rejected included Ali Larijani (FT), a conservative who long served as speaker of parliament and who helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal. Washington and Tehran are currently seeking to revive the deal after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018.
Analysis
“A more likely explanation for why Khamenei and the Guardian Council put their fingers on the scale so decisively to assist Raisi is that they have reason to believe he would not oppose major structural changes that would put the system on a more stable footing while ensuring the survival of Khamenei’s family and his vision for the revolution,” the International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez writes in Foreign Affairs.
 
“Just as the Shah’s creation of a one-party-state in 1975 is seen in retrospect as the high-point of his authoritarianism and a grave mistake, so too will this election come to haunt the Islamic Republic,” tweets Roham Alvandi of the London School of Economics and Political Science.
 
This In Brief looks at what to know about Iran’s presidential election.
What to Know About the Arab Citizens of Israel
Israel’s Arab citizens represent one-fifth of the population and could be poised to gain a larger voice in the country’s domestic affairs.

Pacific Rim

Kim: North Korea Should Prepare for Dialogue, Confrontation With U.S.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, said the country should be ready for both dialogue and confrontation (Yonhap) with the United States, which observers said could signal a willingness for talks. The comments were Kim’s first toward the United States since President Joe Biden took office.
 
CFR’s Scott A. Snyder looks at Biden’s approach toward North Korea.
 
Japan: Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced that the state of emergency prompted by the pandemic will end on Sunday (Japan Times) in all areas except Okinawa Prefecture.

South and Central Asia
Afghanistan’s COVID-19 Surge Strains Health Facilities, Hits U.S. Embassy
COVID-19 infection rates in Afghanistan have risen by 2,400 percent (CNN) in the past month, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The surge has overwhelmed the country’s health facilities. At the U.S. embassy, more than one hundred people have been infected, and one staffer has died. 
 
Bhutan/Nepal: Monsoon rains and flooding killed at least a dozen people (AFP) and displaced hundreds more in the two countries, officials said.

Middle East and North Africa
Israel Strikes Gaza Again After Militants Launch More Incendiary Balloons
Israeli air strikes targeted sites in Gaza (NYT) for the second time since Wednesday after Palestinian militants sent incendiary balloons into Israel for the third consecutive day. No casualties were immediately reported. The moves by both sides have strained a fragile cease-fire agreement that Israel and Hamas, the militant group that governs Gaza, reached after an eleven-day conflict last month.
This Day in History: June 18, 1954
In an operation code-named PBSuccess, the United States incites a coup d’état in Guatemala, removing democratically elected President Jacobo Arbenz. The coup reverses a decade of representative democracy and land reform and sets the stage for the country’s thirty-six-year civil war.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Zambia’s Founding President Dies
Kenneth Kaunda, who led Zambia for twenty-seven years after the country gained independence from Britain in 1964, died at age ninety-seven (News24). Leaders across Africa expressed their condolences and praised Kaunda’s contributions to the continent’s liberation movements.
 
Africa: The World Health Organization said Africa urgently needs more COVID-19 vaccines because cases across the continent rose by over 20 percent in the week ending June 13 and the Delta variant of the virus is present in fourteen countries.
 
In Foreign Affairs, Rajiv J. Shah argues that to end the pandemic, rich countries should pay to vaccinate poor ones.

Europe
Turkey to Secure Afghanistan’s Kabul Airport
During a meeting in Brussels on Monday, President Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed that Turkey will receive U.S. support in securing the Kabul airport (WSJ) amid the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, a top U.S. advisor said. But the leaders did not resolve tensions over Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400 air defense system.
 
Sweden: The majority of legislators in the country agreed to back a no-confidence vote (FT) on Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, underscoring divisions in the country as it struggles to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Americas
Nicaragua Denies Entry to New York Times Journalist
Nicaragua denied entry (NYT) to a New York Times journalist amid a string of detentions of opposition and civil society leaders and investigations of the media. Earlier this week, the Organization of American States passed a resolution condemning the detentions.
 
Venezuela: Donors including more than thirty countries and two development banks pledged over $1.5 billion in aid (Reuters) for Venezuelan migrants, their host countries, and vulnerable Venezuelans who have not migrated.
 
This Backgrounder looks at the rise and fall of Venezuela.

United States
Supreme Court Dismisses Challenge to Affordable Care Act
The nation’s top court rejected a challenge (WSJ) to the Affordable Care Act, voting 7-2 that the Republican-led states that brought the case lacked the legal standing to do so.
Friday Editor’s Pick
Bloomberg Businessweek looks at what happened when a small surf town in El Salvador started to run on bitcoin.
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