Indivisibles,

If you had the misfortune of being online this weekend, you might have
seen Senator Manchin’s op-ed explaining his opposition to the For the
People Act ([ [link removed] ]here). The piece is riddled with historical falsehoods and
bizarre, antiquated political analysis. We won’t spend a lot of time on
that (Rep. Mondaire Jones has a good thread on it [ [link removed] ]here if you’re
interested). But worth noting upfront: despite the intransigence of Senate
Republicans, the For the People Act has [ [link removed] ]overwhelming bipartisan support
in West Virginia and across the country, including overwhelming majorities
amongst Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. I’m here to give you my
best take on what this means, what comes next, and what is to be done.

Here’s the short version: This democracy fight is coming to a head now,
which means things are getting ugly. Manchin doesn’t want to move forward
without GOP support, but he also doesn’t want to be squeezed, so he wrote
his op-ed trying to head off a showdown where he comes off as the bad guy.
Don’t get me wrong, his opposition in this moment is bad, but it’s not
game over. We need to stop treating him with kid gloves, but most of all,
we need top-level leadership from President Biden  and Majority Leader
Schumer, and we need grassroots-level leadership from all of you ([ [link removed] ]click
here to find out what you can do). One way or another, the showdown is
coming soon.

First, why did Manchin write this op-ed now?

To understand Manchin’s actions, you have to view them in the context of
recent events. We’re in the pre-negotiation phase of the democracy reform
fight. What you’re seeing is posturing ahead of the showdown. 

Just last week, Majority Leader Schumer announced plans to start forcing
the GOP to actually filibuster bills. Their first filibuster was of the
bipartisan Jan 6th commission. Schumer plans to bring up the Paycheck
Fairness Act this week, and the For the People Act the week of June 21st. 

The point of scheduling these votes is not because anybody believes they’d
actually pass on the first try. Of course, they won’t pass -- McConnell
will filibuster them. Instead, the point of scheduling these votes is to
force McConnell to filibuster -- to demonstrate to Manchin and any other
hold-out Senate Democrats that the other side will simply sink everything.
Prove that Senate Republicans are just obstructionists, the logic goes,
and then that will help unify the Senate Democrats to act.

But Manchin would prefer not to force that question. As misguided as it
is, Manchin believes that to protect voting rights, we should have to get
the consent of the party that is attacking voting rights. He wrote this
op-ed to try and take the wind out of the sails of those setting up that
showdown. If folks throw in the towel on the For the People Act, Manchin
can go back to talking to Republican senators about roads and bridges.

So what comes next? 

All attention has been on Manchin, and to a lesser extent, Senator Sinema,
but the real main character in this play is Schumer. As Majority Leader,
he controls the Senate calendar. He can’t make the pieces move, but it’s
his job to set up the play. Manchin just threw a wrench in the gears, and
so now he has to adapt. 

The risk this week: The big risk we’re facing this week is that Manchin’s
announcement derails Schumer’s plan to bring popular bills for a vote.
That would look like Schumer canceling the planned vote, pointing to
Sinema’s opposition to filibuster reform and Manchin’s op-ed, and saying,
“Look, we tried, but we just don’t have the votes.” Another plausible
version of this would be Schumer announcing that he is still fully
committed to the For the People Act, but he is delaying the vote to some
future unspecified date. Delay is death for this legislation.

This will be a crucial test of Schumer’s leadership: will he allow his
plan to be derailed, or will he hold firm? Remember, Schumer has sworn up
and down that “Failure is not an option” because he wants everybody to
know how much he cares about this. Now’s the time to see if he backs up
these words with action. 

What victory will look like: If Schumer sticks to his guns, the first vote
on the For the People Act will come the week of June 21st. As expected,
McConnell will filibuster it. But then the fight goes on. Possibly Schumer
forces McConnell to keep filibustering on the Senate floor for days or
longer. When the Senate returns from the 4th of July recess, he brings up
the bill again and forces McConnell to filibuster it again. He grinds
senate business down to a halt, refusing action on anything until there is
a vote on the For the People Act. All the while, during the days and weeks
of the fight, senators offer amendments, the President uses the full power
of his bully pulpit to focus national attention on the issue, and masses
of grassroots advocates show up in communities across the country to
demand Congress act to save the democracy.

If we win democracy-saving reforms this year, that’s what victory will
look like.

What needs to happen

If we’re going to achieve that victory in the coming weeks, three things
need to happen:

 1. Isolate Manchin. If Manchin’s got 10 GOP votes for democracy, great --
show us. If he doesn’t, he needs to stop enabling McConnell.
Indivisible’s position is this: Democracy is on the line, and he needs
to put up or shut up. 

Historically, a senator who’s stroking his chin and making lofty
pronouncements about bipartisanship can expect a warm response from
much of Washington and his constituents. It’s really important that
that not be Manchin’s experience with this op-ed. Manchin is doing
what southern segregationist senators did for decades: using the
filibuster to block voting rights legislation. Simple as that. No
media figure, no Democratic politician, and certainly no grassroots
advocate should give him any reinforcement. If you’re from West
Virginia, you should be calling Manchin (duh!), but if you’re from
anywhere else in the country, you should be demanding your senators
speak out right now to reiterate that the path forward depends on For
the People, not hazy ideas about compromising with a party of
insurrectionists.

We can be honest that Manchin doesn’t care that much about pressure
from his left -- but there’s a big difference between getting pushed
by the lefties and feeling the full weight of the entire party,
congressional leadership, and the President pushing for a resolution
here. And that brings us to...

 2. Leadership from the top. Manchin is not the king of the universe --
he’s a single senator working within a complex political system. And
in that system, hard legislation never gets done unless key political
leaders prioritize it. Since Manchin’s op-ed, we’ve seen no statement
at all from President Biden or Majority Leader Schumer. Radio silence
is not what you want to hear from your leaders at moments of national
crisis. We need Schumer to publicly, loudly, forcefully recommit to
getting democracy reform done before August recess. And we need
President Biden using his full moral authority and bully pulpit power
to drive the national conversation and urgency around the threats to
our democracy.
 3. Leadership from the grassroots. This is Indivisible's whole theory of
change: elected officials don’t do what their constituents want unless
those constituents make them do it. This is why we showed up to save
the Affordable Care Act. It’s why we demanded our Democratic House
impeach Trump. And it’s why we have to show up creatively, forcefully,
and in big numbers to encourage this Democratic trifecta to finally
act. This is precisely why we are launching the Deadline for Democracy
nationwide actions this Friday. We’ll have more details then -- but
suffice it to say this is the largest cross-movement coalition we’ve
been part of since the fight to save Obamacare. [ [link removed] ]You can sign up and
start recruiting folks here to get details when it launches.

So, where does that leave us?

Let’s review:

* We are headed for a series of GOP-led filibusters this month
* Manchin’s terrible op-ed was intended to take the wind out of our
sails
* The only realistic pathway to victory on democracy reform is a
drawn-out legislative fight
* Victory depends on the full commitment of Biden and Schumer, and
historic grassroots engagement

If this were easy, it would have been done already. If this were
pre-ordained, we wouldn’t have to make it happen. If this were a lost
cause, I wouldn’t be writing you this email. It’s not easy, it’s not
pre-ordained, it’s not lost. That’s what makes what we do right now so
important. 

We’re living through historic times, so I’ll turn to some history to close
us out. In 1964, it took overcoming a 54-day filibuster to pass the Civil
Rights Act in the Senate. The next year it took more than a month after
the Voting Rights Act started full senate debate to get past the threat of
a filibuster. The Jim Crow filibuster, then as now, did not go down
without a long, drawn-out fight.

The For the People Act has not even been scheduled for a full senate vote
yet. There's been no debate. There's been no filibuster. This is all
pre-negotiation posturing -- Manchin's effort to defuse the situation so
he can continue playacting the role of a statesman. But Manchin doesn't
get to decide what happens next -- we do. [ [link removed] ]Click here to pledge to take
action.

The real fight has not yet begun, but it's coming, and we're bringing it.

In solidarity, 

Ezra Levin

Co-Founder and Co-Executive Director, Indivisible

[ [link removed] ]Contribute >>

[ [link removed] ][IMG]

[ [link removed] ][IMG]

[ [link removed] ][IMG]



You can unsubscribe from this mailing list at any time:
[link removed]