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Having channels of communication open with all the players concerned, the EU would be well placed to promote regional de-escalation, starting with mutual non-subversion pledges. Ultimately, even Trump, faced with a fight for his own political survival, might find it expedient to come around the European position rather than expect the EU to bow to his now irremediably failed “maximum pressure” campaign.
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A secure future for Syrian Kurds requires an internationally supported resolution of the Syrian civil war. Those wishing to criticize Trump over Syria ought to focus not on the troop withdrawal but instead on failing to participate fully in the relevant multilateral diplomacy rather than leaving that function to Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
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Trump seems intent on leaving some U.S. forces in eastern Syria for the time being, for reasons that remain even less clear than they were before. Without the SDF, not only does the rationale for leaving those troops in place largely disappear, but logistically it’s difficult to imagine how they can possibly remain in place. Maybe Trump’s persistence is also about to pay off.
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It has become abundantly clear that Arab-Iranian enmity will not solve the Middle East’s other major source of tension, namely the Palestine problem. It can only result in another devastating war. By contrast, if successful, a process of reconciliation in the Persian Gulf could help defuse tensions in the Levant as well.
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The only certain way to end the Yemen conflict is to forge a political solution. That can be achieved far more readily if the U.S. withdraws its indispensable support for the war and directs Riyadh to settle its grievances at the diplomatic table. The UAE seems to have already caught a glimpse of this inescapable reality, if its recent actions are any guide.
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The demonstrators will pay a terrible price if Beijing launches a crackdown and they resist—a scenario that’s quite likely. Those in the United States who have been cheering them on from the sidelines and calling on Washington to play hardball with Beijing will get on with their comfortable lives, perhaps after congratulating themselves for having spoken out in defense of hallowed principles.
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The last week of September saw street protests in Cairo and other cities, involving scores and in some cases hundreds of people chanting for the ouster of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Not long ago one would have characterized such brazen street protests as unprecedented. But there was a precedent: the previous Friday, September 20, many hundreds took to the streets in Suez, Mahalla, Alexandria, and even in Cairo’s iconic Tahrir Square.
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For the second year in a row, Mike Pompeo chose an unusual venue in which to present new escalations in the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran during the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York--the United Against Nuclear Iran’s annual conference, where Pompeo announced the administration was expanding its pressure campaign, targeting Chinese entities believed to be transporting Iranian oil.
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Trump’s presidency has presented an opportunity to reassess the set of assumptions that have underpinned the Beltway establishment view, especially DC’s proclivity for militarism. Trump has unintentionally provided an opportunity to reframe the terms of a foreign policy debate that is no longer fit to meet the challenges of our age.
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The second Israeli national election of 2019 has led to a lot of confusion. Contrary to what many believe, the decision by Israeli President Reuven Rivlin to give incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the first try at forming a governing majority coalition is not at all the same thing as Netanyahu having successfully held on to the job.
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Iran’s fake opposition in exile has tried to silence its critics, while it claims that it supports human rights and democracy for the Iranian people. By blocking those who oppose war and economic sanctions against Iran, Facebook has in effect allied itself with the fake opposition, supporting their advocacy of economic sanctions, war, and “maximum pressure” on the Iranian people inside Iran.
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A security collaboration between Riyadh and Tehran is necessary for the long-term security of the Gulf. If President Trump is interested in establishing some sort of rapprochement with Iran and in avoiding another war in the greater Middle East, then this is his path toward a “Deal of the Century.”
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