White House Withdraws Troops from Turkish-Syrian Border

On Monday, the White House announced that it would be withdrawing U.S. forces from the Turkish-Syrian border and allowing Turkey to erect a "safe zone" in Kurdish-held territory. Turkey took swift action today to take advantage of the U.S.'s absence, launching Operation Peace Spring, a military invasion of Kurdish held territory in Northern Syria. The U.S. decision to withdraw has drawn a slew of responses from Congress, U.S. allies, and the foreign policy community and Hudson experts are debating the decision from all sides. 

Mike Doran makes the case for Trump's foreign policy decision in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that the most consequential blunder the U.S. made in Syria was to align with the Kurds, a group that has a history of conflict with Turkey, writing:

"Most members of America’s foreign-policy establishment see Turkey as an ungrateful ally, perhaps even a Trojan horse inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s walls. On Capitol Hill and in many Washington think tanks, a call for concessions to Tehran will get a more sympathetic hearing than a call to compromise with Ankara, a treaty ally for 67 years. Turkey’s determination to secure its southern border against the YPG is a wanton impulse, in the prevailing view. But the YPG has substantial ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK, as then-Defense Secretary Ash Carter testified before Congress in April 2016. Classified by the State Department as a terrorist organization, the PKK has been waging armed struggle against Turkey since 1984 at a cost of tens of thousands of lives, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a respected source on armed conflict."

...

"The Obama administration’s decision in 2016 to arm and train YPG members and directly embed American special forces with them. Rather than work with Turkey, the U.S. chose to support the Syrian wing of the PKK, which the Turkish public holds responsible for decades of warfare and tens of thousands of deaths. The PKK represents a grave threat to the Turkish Republic, and Turks across the political spectrum loathe it. To dismiss Ankara’s objections to America’s arming of the YPG as mere anti-Kurdish bigotry is ignorant, akin to labeling the fight against al Qaeda as Islamophobia."

Doran reiterated these points in recent Twitter posts, which were retweeted by President Trump.

Blaise Misztal argues against the decision, asserting that it betrays the Syrian Kurds, who have been useful allies in the fight against ISIS, enables Turkey, and will be generally destabilizing for the region:

Hudson will host an event with Blaise and Mike on October 15 to address these challenges and what Trump's decision means for the Syrian Kurds and the region. 

The U.S.-Kurdish alliance has garnered bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. At a recent Hudson event, Interventionism vs. Isolationism, Senator Ted Cruz remarked on the critical role the Kurds have played in American foreign policy in the Middle East, saying:

As you know, I have been outspoken, calling for a free and independent Kurdistan. The Kurds have stood with America over and over and over again. The Peshmerga have proven to be very effective fighters on the ground, fighting the enemies of America, killing the enemies of America so that they’re not killing Americans. And I will say I think U.S. foreign policy has too frequently failed to stand with the Kurds, that their bravery, their loyalty has not been repaid by the same consistency of U.S. foreign policy.

Look. I understand that free and independent Kurdistan drives the Iraqis crazy. It drives the Turks crazy, doesn’t thrill the Iranians. Going back to the principle I laid out, our focus on foreign policy should be focused directly on protecting U.S. national security. The Kurds have bled and fought and died to stand with America. And I think it is right not because we’re in the business of promoting democratic utopias but because our objective should be keeping America safe and standing with those allies who fight with us against our enemies that we should support a free and independent Kurdistan. And I hope that we see that.

The full transcript and event video can be found here. 

In his most recent column for the Wall Street Journal Walter Russell Mead suggests that Trump's Jacksonian foreign policy shift in Syria is not the first time engaging in the Middle East has been met with skepticism from the Oval Office. 

And a recent report by Mike Doran and Peter Rough describes how the U.S. partnership with Syrian Kurds to combat ISIS has challenged U.S.-Turkish relations.

Hudson Highlights

New Episodes of the Realignment

Listen to the latest episode of The Realignment. In last week's episode, Rachel Bovard, a senior adviser to the Internet Accountability Project, argues that tech companies can be as much a threat to privacy and free speech as government, and this week Marshall and Saagar sit down with Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs, who explained the case for President Trump's foreign policy. 

Hudson Grand Opening

Hudson celebrated the expansion of its Washington, D.C. headquarters last week, where U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer delivered remarks praising the Institute’s growth and partnership. The celebration came after a six-month renovation process to extend Hudson’s reach and leadership in Washington and around the world. 

Commentary

U.S.-China Tensions

Patrick Cronin discusses the trade war, the PRC 70th anniversary celebration, and China unveiling their new weapons systems on the Defense & Aerospace Report podcast.

Michael Pillsbury discusses the likelihood that there will be a US-Chinese trade deal before the 2020 election in an interview with Stuart Varney on Fox Business.

And in an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News, Pillsbury discusses the Hong Kong protests and China’s new weapons systems debut.

“I think what we saw in that parade, what we see in the use of deadly force against the young demonstrator is a country that is now almost surpassing out own.”

...

“The Chinese Foreign Military Spokesman was almost in a panic. The idea that the president Trump might restrict the use of Chinese stock companies for investment and private equity.”

John Walters discusses the effects of U.S.-China trade tensions on fentanyl inflows from China in the Washington Times:

“There is a simple measurement to know if [the trade war] is effective: Deaths will decline,” said John Walters, former director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, now at the Hudson Institute. “Until deaths decline, economic enforcement is not doing it.”

Strengthening U.S.-India Alliance

Michael Doran and Aparna Pande discuss Modi’s recent trip to the U.S. in Straits Times:

The "Howdy Modi" rally was a remarkable event, said Dr Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

He tweeted: "Modi 'welcomed' Trump to a rally in Houston. The foreigner hosting the 'nationalist' president on his soil, addressing the crowd as leader of all Indians worldwide. It was globalised and nationalist simultaneously."

…

Mr Modi has made Indian-origin people who have settled abroad a key part of his foreign policy interactions; seeking their support within their country of residence as well as asking them to help India's economic growth through investment, tourism and trade, Dr Aparna Pande, research fellow and director of the India Initiative at the Hudson Institute, wrote in the Indian journal The Print.

But "while personal chemistry is great, for the long-term strength of the relationship, the two countries need to boost economic and strategic ties", Dr Pande told The Straits Times. "For that, India needs to boost economic growth and its military capability."

And in an Op-Ed for the Print, Pande considers India's efforts to redefine its global image, especially in the U.S.

UN General Assembly

John Lee discusses China’s human rights violations ahead of the UNGA in the South China Morning Post:

John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said differences between China and the US over human rights would deepen their rivalry.

“Although the US and other countries are not able to directly affect developments in Xinjiang, the highlighting of the harsh treatment of Uygurs by the US will strengthen the resolve of countries to counter Beijing’s attempts to redefine ‘human rights’ as those rights held by a state or government rather than those residing in the individual,” Lee said. “This will intensify that debate in the UN and other forums whenever the definition of human rights is raised."

Walter Russell Mead discusses the impact of shifts in the geopolitical landscape on policy discussions at UNGA in an interview with NHK.

Peter Rough comments on the U.S.'s attempt to build a coalition against Iran ahead of UNGA in Der Spiegel:

For now, the U.S. government is desperately trying to form an alliance against Iran. The crown prince in Riyadh would, of course, be onboard; the Israelis probably would be too, maybe even a few European countries. "The attack on the refinery offers Foreign Minister Pompeo the chance to join forces with the Europeans," says Peter Rough of the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. This week, the international community has convened in New York for the UN General Assembly, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in attendance along with French President Emmanuel Macron. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is expected to address the assembly on Wednesday.

U.S.-North Korea Negotiations

Patrick Cronin discusses U.S.-North Korea negotiations in the Washington Times:

Mr. Trump’s domestic political difficulties and the looming 2020 presidential race may have factored in the decision to resume talks, said Patrick Cronin the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute in Washington. Mr. Kim “has got to be thinking that Trump is moving toward a moment of peak need in terms of needing a win on foreign policy,” Mr. Cronin said. “Kim may be wanting to cash in on that.”

“But we’ll see,” Mr. Cronin said in an interview Tuesday. “I think there’s a possibility Kim will be willing to accept less from the U.S. than he asked for in Hanoi, but that’s not saying much. So we’re going to have to see if these upcoming talks yield anything.”

And Cronin discusses John Bolton’s latest comments on Kim Jong Un and the state of the nuclear negotiations in an interview with Brian Todd on CNN.

Upcoming Events

In Case You Missed It

New Scholarship