It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your Inbox.
CHEAT SHEET: THE FUZZY MATH ON INFRASTRUCTURE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
If politicians’ talk of deadlines is to be believed (a topic worth its own essay), we are entering the critical month for hammering out the direction on infrastructure spending.
There are a number of competing groups, with competing plans. Several are not directly comparable because they use different approaches to the topic.
In the spirit of clear skies and happier brains, we thought we’d put together this early summer cheat sheet on what is on the table here -- and who is proposing what.
The opening bids
President Biden: A historically large, sweeping vision
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Most recent proposal: $1.7 trillion
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Initial proposal: $2.3 trillion for infrastructure, as part of his “American Jobs Plan.”
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What it includes: more broadband and climate structures, like electric vehicle stations.
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What does that number mean? This reflects total spending, including spending already planned as part of the baseline. (A key budget term!)
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Timeframe: Spending would roll out over eight years.
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How is it paid for? A few ways, including with an increase on corporate taxes.
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This is one of two plans. A good note to help keep things clear. Biden has also proposed the “American Families Plan,” which Democrats sometimes refer to as a “Part 2” on infrastructure. This plan includes significant money for child care and other work- and family-related needs. Democrats could combine the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan into one bill. They have not firmly decided on this path, though current momentum seems to lean against combining both into one megabill.
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and Senate GOP Negotiators: A larger-than-usual, but more narrow infrastructure plan
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Most recent proposal: $928 billion (Total spending, including baseline.)
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Initial proposal: $568 billion
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What it includes: traditional infrastructure like roads and bridges as well as broadband.
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Time frame: eight years -- a period that is three years longer than their initial proposal.
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Paid for: mostly with unused funds from COVID relief bills.
Let’s go apples-to-apples -- what’s the new spending?
Now that we’ve shown you those topline figures, we are going to ask you to remove them from your thoughts for a few minutes. Those numbers do not tell you the critical figure - how much new spending each group would like to add. That is because they include baseline spending, which is already planned.
If you look just at new spending proposed, you see a much larger gap in where the latest proposals stand:
Who is involved and what they want
To close the $1.4 trillion gap between their plans, the Biden White House and congressional Republicans have to square their own objectives but must also work with other key groups, each playing a potential role here.
Here is a look at who is involved as we enter a busy month.
President Joe Biden and the White House. Biden wants two things that conflict: 1. A sweeping plan that redefines infrastructure to include changes in child care and the electric grid and 2. A plan that can get significant bipartisan support.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats. Pelosi and the majority of House Democrats are not worried about bipartisanship. They are driven to pass something that will have broad effects, including on racial equity and climate. They are concerned about seizing this moment, before another election could change their razor-thin margins in Congress. (And they know the first year of any presidency is the most impactful legislatively.)
Senate Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats. Schumer has backed the idea of a broad plan, but he has a numbers problem in his own caucus. Currently not all 50 Democrats in the Senate agree on the “go-big” idea in general, nor on what should go in it specifically. That prominently includes Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., who is trying to craft a bipartisan deal (See below.) Schumer also must contend with progressive senators in his caucus, like Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who have no faith in talks with Republicans and are ready for Democrats to go it alone, and go big, right now.
Senate Republicans. As above, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V., is the lead negotiator for Senate Republicans, trying ardently to shape the final deal into something with minimal red ink in it. Some in her conference see her efforts as naive, others believe she’s made some headway. Capito’s power rests with the idea that most legislation in the Senate needs the support of at least 10 Republicans, in order to break a filibuster. Without it, Schumer would have to take the less-desired path of passing infrastructure through the arcane “budget reconciliation” process.
The Manchin/Collins Group. There remains one additional group, a loose collection of senators from both parties, including Manchin and Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, trying to craft a framework for infrastructure that could get through the Senate. This collection of senators (not yet dubbed with any group name) has been meeting, but likely will not step forward with more specifics unless the talks between other groups break down.
What happens next?
Using past negotiations as a guide, expect more intense back-and-forth news bulletins in the next two weeks followed by a more do-or-die moment of negotiations, possibly in the final weeks of June.
At that point, Republicans will have to decide whether to raise their offer significantly or to walk away from talks. And Biden, similarly, will have to decide whether to approve a more narrow infrastructure bill that some Republicans can support. If he does, Biden and Democrats will likely also consider a separate bill with their larger priorities in it -- a bill they would then have to pass without Republican votes.
FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz
Politics production assistant
DMV Roadblocks Could Disenfranchise Voters, Report Finds May 26. Limited access to DMV locations is a barrier for Wisconsin voters who need picture IDs to comply with the state’s requirements, according to a new report from the national voting rights group All Voting is Local. Limited hours and few locations shut out people who can’t take time off of work or access transportation, the group finds. Why it matters: Lawmakers in close to a dozen states have proposed stricter voter ID laws since the 2020 election, including those requiring photo IDs, making accessibility of motor vehicles offices a crucial element in the debate over voting access. -- Stateline
Arizona audit: More workers added, but who's footing the bill is still unclear May 27. Despite non-partisan experts saying a state audit of the 2020 election was baseless and lacking transparency, GOP leaders in the Arizona State Senate agreed to pay $150,000 to fund it. Experts say that amount is still nowhere near the actual cost of an audit this size. Why it matters: Months after the election was called, supporters of former President Donald Trump have launched multiple fundraising efforts to pay for this audit, further clouding the process and raising even more questions about the total cost of this operation, who is paying for it, and what the outcome will be. -- Arizona Republic
A year without combat deaths: This Memorial Day, military fatalities overseas were the fewest since 9/11 May 31. Since the start of 2021, three service members have lost their lives overseas; however, none were caused by hostile forces, and most were attributed to vehicle accidents. Why it matters: The notable decline in deaths of active duty service members is likely to continue, after President Joe Biden ordered U.S. troops to withdraw from Afghanistan this year. But at the same time, veterans organizations say the country will continue to see an increase in military and veteran deaths at home due to suicide and illnesses resulting from exposures to toxins. -- Army Times
Why Covid rules on liquor, pot and telemedicine might last past the pandemic May 31. Many states are relaxing covid rules, but as state legislative bodies prepare to wind down before the summer, lobbyists are scrambling to make some pandemic-era policies that loosened restrictions on take-out-liquor, medical cannabis and telehealth permanent. Why it matters: While many agree that new policies provide a lifeline for companies and more access for consumers, some worry that legislators are rushing to act without considering long-term consequences. -- Politico
Houston seethes over being frozen out of federal flood funds May 31. Despite Houston being one of the hardest hit areas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the Texas General Land Office has allotted the city none of the $1 billion in federal funding that was directed to help pay for flood mitigation projects. Why it matters: The office has blamed the Biden administration’s “red tape" for not being able to award Houston funding, though critics say the issue of funding between the red state and blue city has long been politicized, and the criteria for receiving money was established under the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the lack of funding could set the city and surrounding county behind in improvements needed to prevent future flooding. -- The Associated Press
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Tess Conciatori , @tkconch
Politics producer
On this rainy day in 1975, President Gerald Ford tripped while disembarking Air Force One in Austria. The parody of Ford’s stumble on Saturday Night Live forever earned him a reputation as a klutz, despite Ford’s accomplished college football career.
Our question: Where did President Ford play college football?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: On whose campaign did Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar first cut her teeth?
The answer: Former Vice President Walter Mondale
In 1980, Yale University student Klobuchar spent a summer in Washington D.C. interning for President Jimmy Carter’s vice president Walter Mondale during their final year in office. Years later, the two Minnesotans reconnected while practicing at the same law firm. In 2006, Mondale encouraged Klobuchar to run for Senate and endorsed her candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
Congratulations to our winners: Bob Schmid and Brad Robideau
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
