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AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most

PERSPECTIVE

America has not lost its demographic advantage

Saturday, May 29, 2021  

The 2020 census brought sobering news: The United States population is now growing at its slowest tempo since the Great Depression. But while this signals trouble ahead for America's pay-as-you-go entitlements, Nicholas Eberstadt argues there is no immediate reason to worry about America's international standing; both our allies and our competitors are aging far faster than we are, meaning America's long-running demographic advantage is set to endure.

 

Russia, meanwhile, has seen nearly 14 million more deaths than births since the fall of the Soviet Union, leaving its long-term decline in little doubt. But this can leave its short-term actions tough to anticipate. As Elisabeth Braw writes this week, Vladimir Putin believes it's in his interest to behave unpredictably, which makes determining his role in the hijacking over Belarus difficult to parse. She recommends viewing last week's events in historical perspective, recalling that during the Cold War, leaders of Soviet satellite states were generally thought to be cooperating closely with the Kremlin. In reality, however, the relationship was often highly dysfunctional. Today's dynamic between Putin and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko may be similar.

 

At home, John Bailey advises keeping more recent history in mind as the school year draws to a close. New COVID-19 cases have fallen to their lowest levels since October, and vaccines have been made available to all US adults. And yet about half of school districts refuse to fully reopen. As Bailey reports, this ignores all scientific perspective; a new study finds in-person instruction presents the same risk of fatality as driving alone in a car for 16 miles — a level of risk many teachers took while driving to school-reopening protests. Far greater are the risks for students, as keeping schools closed puts their academics, mental health, and well-being at stake.

 

Finally, as lawmakers continue to debate an infrastructure package, Kyle Pomerleau explains why targeted fees, not blanket tax increases, should fund the new spending. "User charges," or the fees individuals and businesses pay related to the government benefits they receive, are a fairer and more efficient way to distribute the cost of infrastructure. Unlike a corporate tax hike, Pomerleau writes, user charges ensure those who benefit less pay less and allow market incentives to constrain negative externalities such as pollution and traffic congestion.

RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT
Reviving technology assessment: Learning from the founding and early history of Congress' Office of Technology Assessment

Congress' Office of Technology Assessment — created in 1972 and shuttered in 1995 — was designed to provide Congress sufficient expertise to address the challenges and opportunities science and technology pose. In a new report, M. Anthony Mills argues that reviving this office would help Congress fulfill its constitutional role, enabling it to legislate more effectively and better hold executive agencies accountable.

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