Are some Republicans deserting Trump? As an optimist, you could cite the NRCC internal poll that GOP leaders refused to share with House Republican Caucus members, because it showed wide support for Biden and his program among Republicans, especially in swing states and districts.

Or, as a pessimist, you could give a close read to the latest Democracy Corps poll, which shows that Republican voter support for Trump and the Big Lie of the Stolen Election is only hardening in battleground districts.

And what about the much-hyped letter by more than 100 Republican center-right notables threatening a third party if GOP leaders don’t return to sanity? A third party could indeed peel away some votes in key districts and even Senate races, assuming the party was launched and fielded candidates.

On the other hand, by the time the letter was actually released, it was a non-story. Not a single current Republican elected official signed it. And the threat to launch a third party was very muted ("We believe in pushing for the Republican Party to rededicate itself to founding ideals—or else hasten the creation of an alternative"). Once again, the revolt of the Republican moderates was starting to look like the latest rendition of Charlie Brown and the football.

Then there is the question of voting rights legislation and Joe Manchin’s latest caper. Manchin has proposed legislation that actually goes further than H.R. 4, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Manchin’s bill would remedy the high court’s striking down of regional preclearance under the Voting Rights Act by authorizing the Justice Department to require preclearance of voting changes nationwide.

The estimable Ian Millhiser gave this shift a very hopeful reading. If the Biden administration adopted a version of the Manchin bill, maybe Manchin would make a one-time exception to his refusal to waive the filibuster.

The cynic in me thinks maybe Manchin is trying to look good by making the Senate an offer it can’t accept. (Universal nationwide Justice Department supervision and preclearance? Seriously?)

I can also work up some optimism that some of the cruder Republican state vote-rigging ploys will be too much for even the Roberts Court, when lawsuits reach the justices. But the only thing that makes me truly optimistic is the prospect of a massive progressive mobilization for 2022.

It is going to be a year of whiplash. American politics is bipolar in more ways than one.