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**MAY 17, 2021**

Kuttner on TAP

Optimistic or Pessimistic for 2022?

****

Are some Republicans deserting Trump? As an optimist, you could cite the
NRCC internal poll

that GOP leaders refused to share with House Republican Caucus members,
because it showed wide support for Biden and his program among
Republicans, especially in swing states and districts.

Or, as a pessimist, you could give a close read to the latest Democracy
Corps poll
,
which shows that Republican voter support for Trump and the Big Lie of
the Stolen Election is only hardening in battleground districts.

And what about the much-hyped letter
by more than 100 Republican
center-right notables threatening a third party if GOP leaders don't
return to sanity? A third party could indeed peel away some votes in key
districts and even Senate races, assuming the party was launched and
fielded candidates.

On the other hand, by the time the letter was actually released, it was
a non-story. Not a single current Republican elected official signed it.
And the threat to launch a third party was very muted ("We believe in
pushing for the Republican Party to rededicate itself to founding
ideals-or else hasten the creation of an alternative"). Once again,
the revolt of the Republican moderates was starting to look like the
latest rendition of Charlie Brown and the football.

Then there is the question of voting rights legislation and Joe
Manchin's latest caper. Manchin has proposed legislation that actually
goes further than H.R. 4, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Manchin's
bill would remedy the high court's striking down of regional
preclearance under the Voting Rights Act by authorizing the Justice
Department to require preclearance of voting changes nationwide.

The estimable Ian Millhiser gave this shift a very hopeful reading
.
If the Biden administration adopted a version of the Manchin bill, maybe
Manchin would make a one-time exception to his refusal to waive the
filibuster.

The cynic in me thinks maybe Manchin is trying to look good by making
the Senate an offer it can't accept. (Universal nationwide Justice
Department supervision and preclearance? Seriously?)

I can also work up some optimism that some of the cruder Republican
state vote-rigging ploys will be too much for even the Roberts Court,
when lawsuits reach the justices. But the only thing that makes me truly
optimistic is the prospect of a massive progressive mobilization for
2022.

It is going to be a year of whiplash. American politics is bipolar in
more ways than one.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

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The Confrontations Are Coming

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The Biden administration's public investment agenda has reached a
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Silicon Valley Firm Powers Predatory Prison Video Calls

Twilio has earned a progressive reputation for its explicit anti-racism
and good corporate citizenship. But it sells video calling services to a
prison telecom vendor that faces scrutiny for predatory pricing. BY
HAYDEN BETTS

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