Indivisibles -- welcome to our (delayed) May newsletter. This one’s a bit
different. We want to go deep into strategy with you and share as much
behind-the-scenes info as we have on the fight to get the For the People
Act passed through the senate. There are so many twists and turns in this
legislative fight that it can be hard to tell -- are we winning or losing?
What the hell is really happening here? We won’t sugarcoat things, and we
also don’t want to paint a picture of doom. We just want to give you the
unvarnished state of things, so you can decide how best to contribute to
this effort. Questions? Feel free to reach out to us directly on Twitter:
[ [link removed] ]@ezralevin and [ [link removed] ]@leahgreenb.

Where we’ve been

We started the year strong -- with the House passage of the For the People
Act. This flew under the radar at the time, but it was actually a really
big deal! It’s extremely common for representatives to vote for bills in a
divided government, knowing they’ll never become law, and then get cold
feet once there’s a unified trifecta (see: Republicans’ decade-long effort
to repeal the Affordable Care Act). We were worried earlier this year that
the bill might get watered down or blocked entirely, but that didn’t
happen -- in fact the For the People Act got strengthened a bit this year.
That’s a real success.

More good news: the bill was given the label “S.1” in the Senate -- the
number traditionally reserved for the majority party’s top priority bill.
And that bill has 49 cosponsors -- all but one member of the Democratic
caucus are affirmatively in support, and the lone holdout (Manchin) has
not vetoed the bill, but merely raised a few concerns. This is enormous.
Traditionally, big complicated bills that face unified GOP opposition do
not get similarly unified Democratic support like this so early on in the
process. This too is a real win.

Finally, the Senate held a full committee hearing back in March on the For
the People Act, and they held a “[ [link removed] ]markup” on the bill just this week. A
markup is where senators get a first stab at amending the bill in
committee before sending it to the floor for a full senate vote  -- and
every Democrat on the committee voted in favor of sending it to the floor.
This too is a real win. 

This feels good, right? Things are proceeding as planned? OK, so here’s
where we start running into issues. 

The real enemy is time

Forget the discouraging things you’ve heard about Joe Manchin, Kyrsten
Sinema, or even Mitch McConnell. The real enemy of the For the People Act
is time. We’re running out of time for basic policy and political
reasons. 

On the policy front, it turns out that it takes a fair amount of time to
actually implement a piece of legislation after it’s been passed. That’s
all the more true for the For the People Act, which is designed in part to
undo the damage caused by the avalanche of GOP voter suppression bills at
the state level. When we talk to election administration experts, they
advise us that many provisions of the democracy reform bill, such as the
anti-gerrymandering independent redistricting commissions, will take
significant time to implement ahead of the next midterm elections. These
experts tell us things start getting dicey if we fail to pass the bill by
the end of this summer. In other words, if you want to actually prevent
the GOP from gerrymandering and voter-suppressing themselves into a
majority next year, you can’t delay the For the People Act much beyond the
summer.

Compounding the issue is the political time crunch. The House of
Representatives goes on the longest recess of the year at the end of July.
They won’t be fully back until September 20th. When they get back, they’ll
have additional urgent matters on their plate: the end of the budget year,
possibly a fight over the debt ceiling, and infrastructure and care
economy reconciliation packages we’ve heard so much about. All of these
things will take demand to be prioritized, and will likely eat up what few
legislative days there are left in the year. It’s hard to see space for
democracy reform this year after the August recess.

Take all that together and you've got a pretty clear picture: either we
pass the For the People Act before August recess, or we don’t get another
shot this Congress. In other words, we’ve got about two months to pass
democracy-saving legislation before it’s too late.

How the legislative fight will play out

Ok, so we’re racing against the clock. And in this race, we’ve got various
opponents that could slow us down.

When the For the People Act goes to the floor, Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell will rally his Republican colleagues to filibuster it. He may
succeed in killing it outright, or he may simply succeed in delaying it to
death -- but make no mistake, stopping the For the People Act is widely
reported to be McConnell’s top priority this congress. Last week we
learned that a hundred conservative leaders meet every single week to
coordinate the opposition ([ [link removed] ]here). Just this week, every single GOP
senator voted against the bill in committee. 

But it’s not just McConnell and the GOP that could slow us down. While
almost every Democrat senator has vocally supported reforming the
filibuster to pass the For the People Act, senators Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)
and Joe Manchin (WV) have not. It’s easy for cynicism and defeatism to set
in when thinking about this. Don’t fall into that trap. Successful bills
regularly face public opposition from key senators during the legislative
process. But senators change their positions all the time, in response to
pressure or in exchange for concessions -- it’s a huge mistake to take
their position today as the final word. Is their current public position
good? No. But it’s not game over.

At the end of the day, it will be up to Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer to rally the troops. Majority Leader Schumer certainly says the
right things -- “failure is not an option.” He gives impassioned speeches
and tweets forceful tweets in support of the For the People Act. Earlier
this week, the Senate Democrats held a closed-door meeting to discuss the
future of the For the People Act. We heard from multiple sources that
Schumer made clear his intent to get the For the People Act done by
August, come hell or high water. It was reported ([ [link removed] ]here) that Sinema
asked him what the strategy was, and Schumer responded that the plan was
for Senate Democrats to stick together.

That is indeed the only plan that has any chance of success. The For the
People Act will be filibustered. And that’s the moment the Senate
Democratic caucus will face a choice: do we let the Republican minority,
representing 41 million fewer Americans, veto our agenda and tank our best
chance at protecting our democracy? That’s the moment they’ll all get
together and talk to each other, and -- hopefully -- take a deep breath,
look each other in the eyes, and agree to move this thing forward however
they need to.

If we are successful, this will all come to a head in July. And it’s going
to take a LOT of pressure from the outside, because plenty of Democrats
still think that this is optional, nice-to-have, not something that their
constituents will judge their success on. They need to face the reality --
we can make these reforms, or we can watch our democracy collapse around
us. 

Where does that leave us?

Let’s review:

* We know almost every Democrat supports the For the People Act. 
* We know the holdouts aren’t lost causes. 
* We know that, for policy and political reasons, August recess is the
deadline.
* We know Schumer has at least said he plans to get this done by August.
* We know that McConnell and his allies will do everything possible to
kill the bill.
* We know that if we fail, the GOP will likely rig the 2022 elections
and beyond to win back power.

OK, so what can I do?

We’re working with Indivisibles in West Virginia and Arizona, and they
know they’ve got a job to do. But what about everyone else? 

Well, let’s go back to that point about the Democratic caucus. Because the
reality is, each of these folks don’t make their decisions in a vacuum.
They talk to each other. Literally; they have lunch together every
Thursday to talk strategy. When legislation passes, it’s because
passionate advocates in the Senate helped organize and pull their
colleagues along. When it fails, it’s because a decent chunk of the
caucus, even folks who would totally have voted “yes” if the bill came to
the floor, didn’t actually prioritize getting it done. 

If we’re going to pass this bill, we need every Senator who’s currently
supporting it to feel in their bones that this bill MUST. PASS. The way
they’re going to feel that is if you make them feel that.

At Indivisible -- as activists spread across the country in every state
right now -- it’s our job to make it impossible for senators to ignore us
in this moment. We did not spend four years resisting Trump to elect a
Democratic trifecta that would cave to forces that allowed Trump to rise.
It is their responsibility to pass this bill. It is our responsibility to
make them do it.

So that is what we will do. We were heartened by the last survey question
we sent out asking what Indivisibles are doing to help save our democracy.
From postcard parties to light brigade actions to congressional office
call-chains to candidate recruitment to anti-misinformation projects. This
is inspiring important work -- this is indeed what democracy looks like.
We hope as we look toward this summer deadline for the For the People Act,
the Indivisible movement will not just continue this work, but will come
together with one loud, nationwide, unignorable voice to demand a real
democracy -- of, by, and for the people. 

In solidarity,
Ezra & Leah
Co-Founders, Indivisible

PS: For this newsletter, we’re focusing on the For the People Act because
it is mostly likely to pass first, but anybody following us knows we’re
working hard on D.C. statehood and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act too.

PPS: Can’t resist sharing with the Indivisible family a new picture of
Zeke. 7 months old, crawling everywhere, and the proud owner of one single
sharp tooth. Many thanks for all the love and support from Indivisibles
for this little guy. He is our sunshine.

[6]A photo of a man laying on his back holding a smiling baby up in the
air.

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