Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
May 12, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Death Toll Rises in Worst Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in Years
Dozens of people have been killed, including women and children, in the worst fighting (AP) between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in Gaza since 2014. 

At least forty-eight Palestinians and six Israelis have been killed (Haaretz) and dozens more injured as rocket attacks by Hamas, the group that controls Gaza, and Islamic Jihad are met with Israeli air strikes. The violence has been accompanied by widespread unrest (WaPo) within Israel as Palestinians protest the Gaza killings and other grievances, including police brutality and the pending evictions of Palestinian families in  East Jerusalem by Israeli settlers. The Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation condemned the Israeli air strikes (Al Jazeera). The Joe Biden administration urged de-escalation (WSJ), but said it supports Israel’s right to defend itself and denounced the Palestinian groups’ rocket attacks. The UN Security Council is planning to hold a second emergency meeting on the situation today, but it has not issued a statement due to U.S. concerns, according to reports.
Analysis
“Definitely what is happening is an indirect message to the Palestinian Authority and to [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas,” Al-Aqsa University’s Mkhaimar Abusada tells the New York Times. “If he is not willing to reorganize the Palestinian internal house, that’s another reason why Hamas is escalating.”

“The Israelis are seeking now to try to reestablish the deterrence that they had that lasted for about six years and prevented these rocket attacks for the most part from landing on Israeli cities,” CFR’s Martin S. Indyk tells CNBC. “They won’t be content to call this off until they’ve inflicted enough pain on Hamas to get them to stop their rocket fire.” 

CFR’s Steven A. Cook explains the turmoil in Jerusalem on The President’s Inbox podcast.
Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense
Some analysts are concerned that a conflict between China and Taiwan could draw in the United States. This newly updated Backgrounder examines cross-strait tensions.

Pacific Rim
International Red Cross Warns of COVID-19 Surge in Asia
Nearly six million new COVID-19 cases were reported in Asia in the past two weeks, more than in all other regions combined (AP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said. The group called for more global support to the region, including better access to vaccines.

Philippines: Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. said China has moved more ships (Bloomberg) into disputed waters in the South China Sea despite repeated objections from Manila.

South and Central Asia
India’s Modi Scraps Plans to Attend G7 Meeting
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he will not travel to the United Kingdom (TOI) for a meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) next month due to the ongoing surge of COVID-19 cases in India. The G7 had invited Modi to attend the summit as a guest, as India is not a member.

Afghanistan: Officials said the Taliban captured the strategically important Nerkh district (RFE/RL) near Kabul ahead of a cease-fire set to begin this week. Several highways run through Nerkh.

Middle East and North Africa
Iran’s Ahmadinejad Seeks to Run for President Again
Hard-line former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has filed to run for a third term (Radio Farda) in next month’s elections. He developed Iran’s nuclear program during his tenure in office from 2005 to 2013, leading to heightened tensions with Western countries, and his reelection in 2009 triggered mass protests. He was barred from running in 2017.
This Day in History: May 12, 1975
Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge regime seizes the U.S. merchant ship Mayaguez for allegedly violating its territorial waters. U.S. President Gerald Ford approves a military mission to rescue the crew.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Uganda’s Museveni Inaugurated a Sixth Time
Nearly a dozen African heads of state attended the sixth inauguration (Daily Monitor) of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. Opposition leaders have alleged that the elections in January were fraudulent. Museveni has been in power since 1986.

Kenya: The government suspended flights (Al Jazeera) from Somalia without stating a reason just days after the countries resumed diplomatic relations. The announcement came a day after Somalia said shipments of khat, a narcotic leaf, from Kenya would remain suspended.

Europe
UK Queen Lays Out Johnson’s Agenda
In an address opening Parliament, Queen Elizabeth II laid out British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s legislative agenda to “level up” the UK (FT). Johnson is pushing a series of measures aimed at boosting the economy, such as job training, and also seeks to reclaim the prime minister’s power to call elections. The speech was the queen’s first public appearance (NYT) since the death of her husband, Prince Philip.

Russia: President Vladimir Putin ordered tighter gun control (BBC) in the wake of a school shooting that left at least nine people dead.

Americas
Number of Unaccompanied Children at U.S. Southern Border Fell in April
The number of unaccompanied children attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border fell in April (AP) from a record high in March, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Authorities said they encountered 17,171 children traveling alone, down nearly 10 percent from March, though encounters with migrants overall increased by 3 percent.

This Backgrounder explains U.S. detentions of child migrants.

Colombia: President Ivan Duque announced disciplinary action (MercoPress) against sixty-five police officers accused of committing acts of brutality during a crackdown on nationwide protests. Dozens of people have been killed during the weekslong protests that started in April.

United States
Colonial Pipeline Disruption Leads to Gas Shortages
A cyberattack on a major U.S. oil pipeline has led to gas shortages (NPR) in the South and on the East Coast. Experts say normal pipe operations should resume by the end of the week.

CFR’s Robert K. Knake makes the case for tougher pipeline cybersecurity regulations.
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