Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
May 7, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Fourth Round of Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Begins in Vienna
The fourth, and possibly final, round of talks over a potential U.S. return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal kicked off today (RFE/RL) in Vienna.

Ahead of the talks, a senior U.S. official said both countries could return to compliance (NYT) with the deal within weeks, though significant gaps remain. The Joe Biden administration has signaled that Tehran should not expect (AP) any major new concessions from Washington. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed heavy economic sanctions on Iran, which responded by increasing its uranium enrichment. An agreement would see the United States lift sanctions in exchange for Iran returning to its prior commitments. Adding pressure to the talks is the looming expiration (Guardian) on May 21 of a separate agreement between Iran and UN nuclear inspectors.
Analysis
“The [Biden] administration will, I believe, agree to lift the most important financial and petroleum sanctions to get back to the [nuclear deal], thereby eliminating its own best leverage to get a further agreement. The remaining sanctions leverage will not be enough,” CFR’s Elliott Abrams writes.

“Many U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, are wary of the United States returning to an agreement that they believe provides Iran with economic benefits without sufficiently obstructing its path to a nuclear weapon. Thus, the regional tensions and the pattern of attacks and reprisals are likely to persist no matter the prospects of the agreement,” CFR’s Ray Takeyh writes.

This Backgrounder explains the Iran nuclear deal.

Pacific Rim
U.S., China to Debate at UN Security Council Meeting
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi are expected to offer competing views (Bloomberg) on how to strengthen the international system at a virtual meeting of the UN Security Council today. U.S. State Department officials said Blinken will emphasize a commitment to a rules-based order that Washington believes Beijing threatens.

Wang discusses China’s foreign policy at this CFR virtual meeting.

Japan: Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga extended a state of emergency (Japan Times) in several prefectures, including Tokyo, until the end of the month. He also placed two additional prefectures under a state of emergency as Japan’s COVID-19 cases continue to climb.

South and Central Asia
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Visits Saudi Arabia
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan departed for a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia (Dawn) at the invitation of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Khan and Saudi leaders are expected to discuss issues including trade, energy, and job opportunities for the more than two million Pakistanis living in Saudi Arabia. Bilateral relations have been strained in recent years, partly due to disagreements on the conflict in Yemen.

Tajikistan: Nineteen people were killed and eighty-seven others were injured in border clashes with Kyrgyzstan (RFE/RL) last week, Tajik authorities said in their first official statement on the skirmishes, the heaviest fighting between the countries in years.

Middle East and North Africa
Egypt, Turkey Hold First Talks in Eight Years
Egyptian and Turkish officials had “frank and in-depth” discussions (Al Jazeera) during their countries’ first official talks in eight years, a joint statement said. They discussed the situations in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, among other issues. Relations have been tense since the 2013 ouster of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This Day in History: May 7, 2000
Succeeding Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin is sworn in as president of Russia following his March 26 election victory.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Malawi Orders Thousands of Refugees Back to Crowded Camp
Malawi’s government ordered thousands of refugees, many of whom had long been integrated into society, to return to an overcrowded camp (AFP), citing security concerns. The UN refugee agency said the move was legal but urged the government to reconsider. Many refugees have vowed to resist the order.

Somalia: President Mohamed Farmaajo said the country is restoring diplomatic relations with Kenya (NYT) six months after breaking off ties. Somalia had accused Kenya of “blatant interference” in its internal affairs, including alleged election interference.

Europe
Blinken: U.S. Considering Additional Military Aid for Ukraine
Secretary Blinken said the United States is considering a request by the Ukrainian government for military assistance (RFE/RL), including air defense systems and anti-sniper technology, due to a Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border. The United States has given Ukraine about $5 billion in aid since Russian annexed Crimea in 2014.

Germany: The government said it opposed a U.S.-backed proposal at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to waive intellectual property (IP) protections (BBC) for COVID-19 vaccines, contending that IP protections promote innovation and that patents are not a major impediment to global vaccination efforts. The European Union’s support is necessary for the proposal to be adopted at the WTO.

Americas
Twenty-Five Killed During Police Raid in Rio
At least twenty-five people, including a police officer, were killed during a shoot-out (NYT) between police and suspected drug traffickers in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro. It was one of the deadliest incidents in the city’s history. Rights groups and city residents accused the police of abuses, including allegedly executing people who had surrendered.

This Backgrounder looks at policing around the world.

Uruguay: The Chinese ambassador to Uruguay said China is open to a trade deal (MercoPress) with Uruguay or the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), a trade bloc that includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

United States
Florida Imposes New Voting Restrictions, Texas to Follow Suit
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed legislation (WaPo) that restricts voting by mail and the use of ballot drop boxes as he and other Republican leaders continue to promote former President Trump’s false narrative that the 2020 election was marred by fraud. Meanwhile, Texas is moving ahead with its own bill (NYT) that would empower partisan poll watchers and prohibit officials from mailing absentee ballot applications, among other provisions. 
Friday Editor’s Pick
The New Yorker looks at how innovations in bioelectricity could someday help humans regenerate lost limbs.
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