Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
May 3, 2021
Top of the Agenda
North Korea: Biden Made a ‘Big Blunder’ by Calling Its Nuclear Program a Threat
A North Korean government official said U.S. President Joe Biden made a “big blunder” (Yonhap) by labeling North Korea’s nuclear program a threat in his address to Congress last week. The official warned that the United States will face a “worse and worse crisis beyond control.”

In his speech on Wednesday, Biden called the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs a “serious threat” to U.S. and global security and said Washington will respond with “diplomacy as well as stern deterrence.” The Biden administration recently concluded a review of U.S. policy toward North Korea. Biden is reportedly seeking a middle ground (WaPo) between President Donald Trump’s emphasis on personal diplomacy and President Barack Obama’s approach of conditioning engagement on North Korean concessions. North Korea’s statement yesterday was one of three (NYT) aimed at the United States and South Korea. Pyongyang also blasted Washington for criticizing its human rights record and Seoul for failing to stop anti–North Korea leaflets from being sent across the border.
Analysis
“The Biden administration should leave the door open for North Korea to take part in substantive working-level negotiations,” CFR’s Scott A. Snyder writes. “Simply maintaining a posture of openness to and readiness for a denuclearization dialogue contradicts propaganda efforts designed to lay the blame for North Korea’s failures on a perceived U.S. ‘hostile policy.’”

“Unlike the distant objective of total denuclearization, a limited arms control agreement [with North Korea] would force tough, near-term tradeoffs with other U.S. policy goals. But given the failure of existing approaches, arms control is at least worth a shot,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Eric Brewer and Sue Mi Terry write for Foreign Affairs

Victor D. Cha, Duyeon Kim, and Stephanie T. Kleine-Ahlbrandt discuss the future of U.S. policy on North Korea at this CFR virtual meeting.
Vote for CFR in the Webby Awards
CFR has been honored with a Webby nomination! Help us showcase our work by voting for our photo essay “How the World Has Learned to Grieve in a Pandemic” in the “Best Use of Photography” category. Voting ends on May 6.

Pacific Rim
New Zealand’s Ardern: Issues With China Are Getting ‘Harder to Reconcile’
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said differences between New Zealand and China are becoming “harder to reconcile” (Reuters). Her government faced some criticism after Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta expressed reluctance about expanding the role of the Five Eyes intelligence partnership to criticize China.

South and Central Asia
Modi’s Party Loses State Election in India
Despite intense campaigning in West Bengal, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to win power (BBC) in the state assembly after elections held amid a devastating surge of COVID-19 cases. Mamata Banerjee, a Modi critic and India’s only woman chief minister, will remain the state’s leader.

Afghanistan: A truck bomb killed at least twenty-seven people (NYT) on Friday, the eve of the U.S. troop withdrawal date agreed to under last year’s U.S.-Taliban deal. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. In a statement yesterday, President Biden said the United States will “disrupt” any terrorist threats (TOLOnews) emerging from Afghanistan.

Middle East and North Africa
U.S., Iran, UK Deny Report of Prisoner Swap
Iran’s foreign ministry said it cannot confirm (Al Jazeera) a state TV report of an imminent prisoner swap with the United States. Washington and London denied the report, which also said a British-Iranian citizen, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, would be released following a debt payment from the United Kingdom.

Palestinian territories: Three Israeli teenagers were wounded, one critically, in a suspected drive-by shooting (Haaretz) in the West Bank.
This Day in History: May 3, 1947
Japan’s new postwar constitution is promulgated, introducing transformative social and political reforms in the nation, such as popular sovereignty and civilian control of the military.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Chad’s Military Names New Government
Chad’s ruling military council named a new government (Reuters), which the opposition says is illegitimate. The military seized power following the death of President Idriss Deby Itno last month and pledged to hold elections within eighteen months. Thousands of people protested last week to support immediate civilian rule.

CFR’s Michelle Gavin explains the unfolding consequences of Deby’s death.

Somalia: Lawmakers in the lower house of Parliament voted unanimously to revive a September 2020 agreement that will allow for indirect elections (Al Jazeera), reversing an earlier vote to extend the term of President Mohamed Farmaajo. The agreement will allow clan elders to pick lawmakers who elect the new president.

Europe
G7 Foreign Ministers to Meet in UK
Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) begin a three-day meeting in the UK today, the G7’s first in-person meeting in two years. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the UK will propose an international mechanism to counter Russian disinformation (RFE/RL).

Brussels: European Union Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told the Financial Times he is increasingly hopeful that the EU and the United States can reach an agreement to end a dispute over subsidies provided to the aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing. In March, the two countries agreed to temporarily suspend tariffs imposed on each other to allow for talks.

Americas
El Salvador’s Ruling Party Purges Judges From Top Court
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and lawmakers from his ruling Nuevas Ideas party ousted the attorney general (FT) and five top Supreme Court judges in an attempt to consolidate power. The United States and business and rights groups condemned the move.

Mexico: The Biden administration announced that four families separated at the Mexican border under the Trump administration will be reunited (AP) this week. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said it is the start of a broader effort to reunite families.

This Backgrounder explains how the United States patrols its borders.

United States
Democrats Shut Out of Texas Special Election
A special election for a vacant congressional seat in Texas is down to a runoff between two Republicans (NYT), disappointing Democrats who had hoped to make it a competitive race. The seat was previously held by Representative Ron Wright, a Republican, who in February became the first member of Congress to die from COVID-19.
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