April 30, 2021

This month’s newsletter features an update to a report estimating Iran’s
ability to make a dash to produce fuel for a small nuclear arsenal and a
table describing Iran’s potentially nuclear-capable missiles, which also
pose a growing conventional threat to military bases and civilian
infrastructure in the Middle East and beyond. The table highlights the
payload, range, precision, and operational status of key missiles.

The newsletter also features profiles of entities linked to Iran’s past and
potentially ongoing nuclear weapons research, and news about Iran’s
reaction to an explosion and blackout at its Natanz uranium enrichment
plant. Other items include documents from the Iran Watch library on
negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and
international responses to Iran’s recent decision to enrich uranium up to
60% purity.

[1]View the newsletter in your browser and [2]subscribe to receive it in
your inbox.

PUBLICATIONS

[3]

Report Update | [4]Iran’s Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Despite an expansion in its declared uranium enrichment capacity, Iran
still cannot make a sudden dash to produce the fuel for a small nuclear
arsenal of five implosion-type warheads – the goal Iran set for itself when
it began to work on nuclear weapons decades ago. Instead, the main nuclear
weapon risk continues to come from secret sites, which Iran has used for
illicit work in the past. That risk will increase as Iran develops more
powerful centrifuges, allowing sites to be smaller and easier to hide.
Perfecting such centrifuges is a vital step in the long nuclear game Iran
has been playing for decades.

This update relies on data from the latest public report by the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It does not reflect any damage
done to centrifuges following an attack at the Natanz enrichment plant on
April 11.

[5]READ THE UPDATED REPORT

[6]

Background Report | [7]Table of Iran's Missile Arsenal

Iran’s missile arsenal is the largest in the Middle East. Despite concerns
voiced by the international community, Tehran has persisted in developing a
wide array of ballistic and cruise missiles that are either inherently or
potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, as well as space launch
vehicles that use many of the same technologies as intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Over the past decade, Iran has also improved
the precision, accuracy, and survivability of its missiles, making them an
increasingly potent conventional threat to military bases and civilian
infrastructure in the Middle East and beyond.

[8]VIEW THE TABLE

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

The United States has sanctioned multiple Iranian entities involved in
research related to nuclear weapons development, including a defense
research institute led until November 2020 by the late Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, a U.N.-sanctioned nuclear scientist.

[9]Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND)

A research institute “primarily responsible for research in the field of
nuclear weapons development,” according to the U.S. Department of State;
sanctioned by the United States in 2014; associated with “possible military
dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

[10]LEARN MORE

[11]Kimiya Pakhsh Shargh

An SPND subsidiary sanctioned by the United States in 2019; procures
materials from foreign suppliers, including radioisotopes; reportedly
produces research, laboratory, and medical equipment.

[12]LEARN MORE

[13]Paradise Medical Pioneers Company

An SPND front company sanctioned by the United States in 2019; personnel
have included Fakhrizadeh and other senior SPND officials; involved in
research and production of composites, steels, polymers, and other
materials for the SPND and other customers.

[14]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[15]

[16]Blackout Hits Iran Nuclear Site in What Appears to Be Israeli Sabotage
| The New York Times

April 11: Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility suffered a power outage that Ali
Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI),
described as “nuclear terrorism” on April 11. Unnamed Israeli and U.S.
intelligence officials said that an Israeli-orchestrated explosion had
destroyed an internal power system feeding electricity to underground
centrifuges at Natanz. The officials said that Iran could need at least
nine months to return Natanz’s enriched uranium production to previous
levels. Behrouz Kamalvandi, an AEOI spokesman, reported that the entire
complex had lost power but claimed that there were no casualties or damage.
Israel neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the action.

[17]Iran Starts Enriching Uranium to 60%, Its Highest Level Ever |
Associated Press

April 16: Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament,
announced on April 16 that Iran had begun enriching uranium gas to 60
percent purity. Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of
Iran (AEOI), specified that Iranian centrifuges were producing nine grams
of uranium enriched to 60 percent per hour but that this amount would
decrease to five grams per hour in the near future. Earlier in the week,
inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited the
Natanz nuclear facility and said that Iran’s planned 60-percent enrichment
would take place at the aboveground portion of the site. Iranian officials
and state media cast the move to 60-percent enrichment as a response to the
previous week’s sabotage at Natanz, which damaged centrifuges there. Before
then, Iran had been enriching uranium to 20 percent. The Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 international agreement
placing limits on Iran’s nuclear program, prohibits Iran from enriching
uranium to more than 3.67 percent. The European Union, France, Germany, and
the United Kingdom expressed concern at the Iranian decision.

[18]Iran Adds Machines at Enrichment Plant Struck by Blast—IAEA | Reuters

April 21: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on April
21 that Iran had installed six cascades of “up to” 1,044 IR-2m centrifuges
and two cascades of “up to” 348 IR-4 centrifuges at the underground portion
of the Natanz nuclear site. The IAEA did not specify how many of the newly
installed centrifuges Iran was using to enrich uranium. Iran also informed
the IAEA that it plans to install four additional cascades of IR-4
centrifuges in the underground facility, where an explosion and power
outage earlier in the month damaged an unknown number of centrifuges. The
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 international
agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program, limits the country to the use
of less efficient IR-1 centrifuges at the underground portion of Natanz.

FROM THE LIBRARY

For much of April, the remaining parties to the JCPOA held a series of
meetings to facilitate a return to compliance with the accord by Iran and
the United States.
* [19]At a virtual meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission, Iran calls the
lifting of U.S. sanctions “the first step” to the revival of nuclear accord
– April 2
* [20]During meetings in Vienna, two “expert groups” work to develop a
plan for the U.S. to remove sanctions and for Iran to bring its nuclear
program within JCPOA limits – April 9
* [21]The Joint Commission forms a third “expert group” to determine how
Iran and the U.S. should sequence their respective measures to rejoin the
JCPOA – April 20
* [22]The U.S. heralds the “progress” of negotiations but describes the
talks as “not near the conclusion” – April 21

Even as the Biden administration seeks to rejoin the JCPOA, the United
States and its allies continue to scrutinize Iran’s nuclear program and
other activities.
* [23]The U.S. Intelligence Community concludes “that Iran is not
currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities” –
April 9
* [24]The E.U. imposes sanctions on Iranian officials accused of abusing
human rights – April 12
* [25]The Group of Seven raises concerns about Iran’s nuclear, missile,
and space programs – April 19
* [26]The U.S. Treasury Department fines an Oklahoma company for
violating sanctions on Iran – April 19
* [27]The U.S. Justice Department penalizes a Germany-based company for
violating sanctions on Iran – April 29

In mid-April, a damaging blackout struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility,
the second case of suspected Israeli sabotage at the site in less than one
year. In the aftermath of the incident, Iran began enriching small
quantities of uranium to 60 percent purity.
* [28]The AEOI claims to have “solved” the power outage at Natanz – April
12
* [29]Iran’s envoy to the IAEA blames Israel for the blackout – April 12
* [30]The U.S. joins [31]France, Germany, and the U.K. in condemning
Iran’s plans to enrich uranium to 60 percent in response to the incident at
Natanz – April 14
* [32]The AEOI begins enriching uranium to 60 percent at Natanz – April
16

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2021 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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