Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
April 28, 2021
Top of the Agenda
U.S. Orders Embassy Staff to Leave Afghanistan
The U.S. embassy in Afghanistan ordered nonessential staff to leave (WSJ) the country amid concerns about increased violence next week. The Taliban has threatened to launch more attacks if the United States misses the May 1 troop withdrawal deadline set under last year’s U.S.-Taliban agreement. President Joe Biden extended the withdrawal date to September 11.

U.S. defense officials told CNN that a special force is being assembled to protect departing troops. At a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, lawmakers expressed concern about backsliding in Afghanistan following the U.S. pullout. U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad told senators (TOLOnews) that any future aid to Afghanistan will be conditioned on the Taliban’s behavior, including its treatment of women and girls.
Analysis
“The most immediate threat posed by the U.S. withdrawal will not be to the United States—it will be to the people of Afghanistan, especially its women, most of whom have no desire to be ruled by the Taliban,” CFR’s Max Boot writes.

“The painful truth is that the United States is leaving behind a war that is now much further from a negotiated settlement than it was even one year ago. That changed reality—along with heightened competition with China, climate change, a pandemic, and other pressing matters at home—makes Biden’s decision to withdraw all American troops all the more compelling,” writes former Special Assistant for Strategy to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Carter Malkasian in Foreign Affairs.

This timeline tracks the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
Transition 2021
President Biden is set to address Congress tonight as his administration approaches the one-hundred-day mark. CFR covers his transition to the presidency.

Pacific Rim
Japan Approves Massive Asia-Pacific Trade Deal
Japan’s legislature approved (Jiji/Kyodo) the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade deal that includes the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), along with Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. It is Japan’s first trade deal with China and South Korea.

CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick explains the implications of the RCEP.

Australia/India/Japan: The three countries formally launched the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (Mint) to counter China’s dominance of regional supply chains. Beijing criticized the effort (SCMP) and warned that it could disrupt the global economic recovery.

South and Central Asia
Pakistan Reports Record Deaths From COVID-19
Pakistan reported more than 200 deaths (Dawn) from COVID-19 yesterday, surpassing its previous record daily death toll of 157. The country’s health system is fragile, and ventilators and oxygen are in short supply. The government said it is considering tighter lockdown measures.

Middle East and North Africa
Palestinian Elections Likely to Be Delayed
Palestinian authorities appear likely to postpone elections (Reuters) scheduled for May and July, the first elections in fifteen years, due to a dispute over voting in Israel-occupied East Jerusalem and a rift within Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party. Israel has not said whether it will allow voting in Jerusalem.

Iran: The Pentagon said that the U.S. Navy fired warning shots (Politico) toward Iranian military vessels in the northern Persian Gulf on Monday, the first such incident in nearly four years.
This Day in History: April 28, 1965
U.S. troops invade the Dominican Republic, the first U.S. military intervention in Latin America since 1933, to prevent a communist takeover of the country.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Somalia’s Farmaajo Agrees to Give Up Power
Somali President Mohamed Farmaajo announced that he will not extend his term (Al Jazeera) and called for immediate elections. Farmaajo’s term ended in February, but the lower house of Parliament voted to extend it, triggering a political crisis.

CFR’s Michelle Gavin explains the crisis in Somalia.

Nigeria: During a virtual meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, President Muhammadu Buhari urged the United States to consider relocating U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) (Daily Trust) from Germany to Africa to better support regional security. President Donald Trump had called for AFRICOM to move its headquarters (Hill) from Germany last year as part of a planned drawdown in the country.

Europe
European Parliament Approves Post-Brexit Trade Deal
The European Parliament overwhelmingly voted (BBC) to approve a post-Brexit trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom that was already provisionally in force. The European Commission pledged (Politico) to give the Parliament an important role in monitoring future relations, mollifying lawmakers who had been largely shut out of the talks late last year. 

Greece: Ioannis Lagos, a Greek neo-Nazi European Parliament member, was arrested in Brussels (Politico) after the Parliament voted to waive his immunity. Last year, a Greek court found Lagos and other leaders of the far-right Golden Dawn party guilty of running a criminal organization.

Americas
Brazil’s Senate Launches Probe of Bolsonaro
The Brazilian Senate opened an inquiry (AP) into President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Bolsonaro’s critics say his botched response is why Brazil has the world’s second-highest death toll from the disease after the United States. The probe could hurt Bolsonaro in a face-off against former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who the Supreme Court recently cleared to run in next year’s presidential election.

Mexico: The country will begin domestically producing (Reuters) Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine in an effort to speed up its inoculation campaign.

United States
Biden to Deliver First Address to Congress
President Biden will deliver his first formal address (NYT) to Congress tonight, during which he is expected to push his massive infrastructure plan as well as a new $1.8 trillion proposal (WaPo) to expand education and social safety net programs. Biden is also expected to call for immigration and police reform during the speech, which will have a small, socially distanced audience.
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