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** China and Russia: The Guns of April ([link removed])
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by Gordon G. Chang • April 20, 2021 at 5:00 am
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* Russian troops are massing on the Ukraine border, Chinese vessels are swarming Whitsun Reef of the Philippines in the South China Sea, and China's air force is flying almost daily through Taiwan's air-defense identification zone. Chinese troops for almost a year have been dug in deep in Indian-controlled Ladakh in the Himalayas. Two large aggressors are threatening to break apart neighbors and absorb them.
* American attempts to de-escalate flashpoints are seen in Russian and Chinese circles as failures of resolve.
* The Global Times, an unofficial Communist Party tabloid used by Beijing to signal new policies, on April 12 posted a video of Hu Xijin, its editor-in-chief, warning that Beijing would overfly Taiwan—in other words, fly into Taiwan's sovereign airspace—to "declare sovereignty."
* Chinese leaders speak provocatively because, among other reasons, they do not believe the United States or others will come to Taiwan's rescue.... In effect, China's leaders are saying they do not believe President Joe Biden would defend Taiwan.
* In a propaganda blast on April 8, China's regime said Taiwan "won't stand a chance" if it decides to invade the island. This Chinese self-perception of overwhelming strength is extraordinarily dangerous....
* [W]e have already passed the point where just declarations and warnings will suffice. The Biden administration has yet to impose costs on China for aggressive actions jeopardizing America's security and that of allies like Japan. Chinese leaders, while hearing the mild warnings from the Biden administration, must be asking one question: "Or what?"
* Vladimir Putin in 2019 said that Russia reserved the right to protect ethnic Russians outside Russia. This month, Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of Russia's presidential administration, said his country might intervene to "defend" its citizens. If it did, he suggested, Ukraine would not survive because it would not be "a shot in the leg, but in the face."
* The American response has not been adequate. Russians perceive Biden as feeble. "In Putin's game of brinkmanship, Biden blinked first," said journalist Konstantin Eggert to the BBC, referring to the American president proposing a meeting to his Russian counterpart. Biden's "nerves," he said, "had failed him."
* That assessment may be correct. In the face of threats directed at Washington by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the U.S. Navy did not, as many had expected, send two destroyers through the Bosporus into the international waters of the Black Sea. Politico reported that "two U.S. officials familiar with the plans" said the cancellation was due to American concerns about inflaming the Russia-Ukraine situation....
* the ultimate decision to stay away made it look as if the U.S. had backed down.
* The Dragon and the Bear appear to be coordinating moves, as they have for some time. At the very least, each is acting with an eye to what the other is doing. Once one of these aggressors makes a move, the other large state, taking advantage of the situation, will almost certainly follow. Biden also has to be concerned about Moscow or Beijing acting through proxies Iran and North Korea.
* All the elements for history's next great conflict are now in place.

Russia in recent weeks has reportedly massed an estimated 85,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. The concentration of Russian forces there is the highest since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers in a trench on the front-line facing Russia-backed separatists in the Lugansk region on April 8, 2021. (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Russian troops are massing on the Ukraine border, Chinese vessels are swarming Whitsun Reef of the Philippines in the South China Sea, and China's air force is flying almost daily through Taiwan's air-defense identification zone. Chinese troops for almost a year have been dug in deep in Indian-controlled Ladakh in the Himalayas. Two large aggressors are threatening to break apart neighbors and absorb them.

The Biden administration has issued warnings to both Moscow and Beijing, but neither looks impressed. American attempts to de-escalate flashpoints are seen in Russian and Chinese circles as failures of resolve.

At least at this moment, those adversaries are right to scoff at the new U.S. leader.

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