Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
April 15, 2021
Top of the Agenda
U.S. Retaliates Against Russia Over Hacking, Election Interference
The Joe Biden administration announced a series of measures punishing Russia (White House), including financial sanctions and the expulsion of diplomats, in response to a range of alleged malign activities by Moscow. These include the so-called SolarWinds hack (NYT), interference in U.S. elections, and a CIA assessment that Russia paid bounties to kill American troops in Afghanistan.

The new sanctions (WSJ) prohibit U.S. banks from buying new Russian government bonds. The United States also sanctioned thirty-two individuals and entities over alleged attempts to influence the 2020 election, and it is expelling ten Russian diplomats. The Biden administration formally accused Russia’s foreign intelligence service of carrying out the SolarWinds hack—widely considered to be one of the world’s largest cyber intrusions—which targeted U.S. government and corporate computer networks. The penalties come amid a continued Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border that has also increased tensions with the United States.
Analysis
“This action signals that the Biden administration is not going to hold back,” the Atlantic Council’s Edward Fishman tells the Washington Post. “They’re taking significant actions against the Russian economy and putting global markets on notice that Russian sanctions will increase if Russia’s aggressive behavior continues.”

“The challenge for the [Biden] administration will be to devise a response to the SolarWinds hack that is in some way proportional but that does not replicate Moscow’s bad behavior. Such a response will have to telegraph to the Russians which aspects of its hacking campaign were acceptable and which the United States is declaring out of bounds,” CFR’s Robert Knake writes in Foreign Affairs.

CFR’s Knake explains why the SolarWinds hack is a wake-up call.

Pacific Rim
China to Hold Live-Fire Military Drills as Unofficial U.S. Delegation Visits Taiwan
The Chinese military will begin six days of live-fire exercises (SCMP) in waters southwest of Taiwan as an unofficial delegation of former U.S. officials is set to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

Japan: The secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Toshihiro Nikai, said that canceling the Tokyo Olympic Games is still an option (Japan Times), breaking with other top officials and casting further doubt on the status of the games, which were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This CFR Backgrounder explains the economics of hosting the Olympics.

South and Central Asia
India, Pakistan Reportedly Held Secret Talks on Kashmir
Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials held secret talks in Dubai in January in an effort to de-escalate tensions over the disputed region of Kashmir, sources told Reuters. The United Arab Emirates’ ambassador to the United States said yesterday that the UAE is helping to mediate (Al Jazeera) between India and Pakistan.

This CFR In Brief lays out what to know about Kashmir.

Afghanistan: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries agreed to begin withdrawing troops (NYT) from Afghanistan on May 1 and complete the drawdown within a few months. The move coincided with President Biden’s announcement of a complete U.S. withdrawal by September 11. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit (AP) to Afghanistan today to build support for the withdrawal.

Middle East and North Africa
U.S. to Move Forward With Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia, UAE
The Biden administration plans to allow arms sales to the UAE (NYT) that were included in an agreement between the UAE and Israel brokered by the Donald Trump administration. Separately, the administration will allow sales to Saudi Arabia of some types of weapons, but it is still seeking to suspend the sale of air-to-ground weapons.

Egypt/Turkey: A Turkish delegation will visit Egypt next month in an effort to mend ties (AFP), Turkey’s foreign minister announced. Relations were frozen in 2013 following the overthrow of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.
This Day in History: April 15, 1994
The World Trade Organization is created by the signing of the Marrakesh Agreement by 123 countries. The organization is created to set and enforce the rules of international trade.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Amnesty International Accuses Eritrea of Killing Civilians in Ethiopia
Eritrean soldiers killed three people and wounded nearly twenty others in an “unprovoked attack” (Al Jazeera) in Ethiopia’s Tigray region on Monday, rights group Amnesty International said. Eritrean forces have been accused of committing atrocities in Tigray, where they are aiding the Ethiopian government in operations against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

CFR’s Michelle Gavin explains the conflict in Tigray.

Kenya: In response to a demand from the Kenyan government, the UN refugee agency submitted plans to shutter two refugee camps (Guardian) that collectively shelter more than four hundred thousand people from more than fifteen countries.

Europe
Denmark Stops Using Oxford-AstraZeneca Vaccine
Denmark became the first European country to completely stop administering (BBC) the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine due to a possible link to blood clots in extremely rare cases. The move is expected to delay the country’s vaccination efforts by several weeks.

Americas
Haiti’s Prime Minister Resigns Amid Crime Wave
Haitian Prime Minister Joseph Jouthe resigned (Miami Herald) amid a surge in crime that has triggered a political crisis. President Jovenel Moise has come under increased domestic and international pressure to address the wave of violent crimes, including killings and kidnappings.

This CFR photo essay looks at Haiti’s current political crisis.

Guatemala/Mexico: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said that she plans to visit Mexico and Guatemala (Reuters) soon in an effort to slow migration to the United States. Biden has tapped Harris to serve as the administration’s point person on the issue.

United States
U.S. on Track to Have Huge Vaccine Surplus
The United States could have hundreds of millions of extra COVID-19 vaccine doses (WaPo) as soon as July, according to a report by Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Center. The Biden administration is facing calls for the United States to play a more active role in ensuring an adequate global supply of vaccines. In an open letter yesterday, more than one hundred former world leaders and Nobel laureates called on Biden to waive U.S. intellectual property rules (Al Jazeera) to boost vaccine supplies. 
Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street - New York, NY 10065
Council on Foreign Relations

.

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp