Jack,

I hope you’ve enjoyed your weekend. I’m excited to share with you our Midterm Election Landscape memo. In it, we take a look at the 2022 electoral landscape, and outline major headwinds and concerning trends; Democrats’ strengths and opportunities to expand the map; and our own strategy here at Off the Sidelines. 

I know 2022 feels like a long way out, particularly after the amount of time, resources and energy we all spent flipping the Senate, holding our House majority, and taking back the White House. But it is absolutely critical that Democrats organize and engage now if we’re going to protect and build on our progress.

Thank you for all you do,
Stefanie

Stefanie Conahan
Executive Director, Off the Sidelines PAC

MEMORANDUM | 2022 MIDTERM ELECTION LANDSCAPE 

MAJOR HEADWINDS AND CONCERNING TRENDS

• In modern history, the party that controls the White House loses an average of 30 congressional seats in midterm elections. Consider, for example, 2018, when Democrats re-took the House, or the “Tea Party revolution” of 2010, two years into President Obama’s first term.

• Every ten years, after the census, states redraw their congressional districts. This go-around, we’re keeping a close eye on states like Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, which the Brennan Center for Justice considers at “high-risk” for partisan gerrymandering. Some experts are concerned that Republicans could flip the number of House seats needed to retake the chamber in 2022 by abusing the redistricting process alone.

• This year, state legislators have introduced hundreds of discriminatory voter suppression bills in over 40 states. These laws disproportionately disenfranchise Black and brown voters, feed into a false narrative of “voter fraud” in the 2020 election, and attempt to tip the scales in favor of Republicans in future elections. The extent to which Republicans succeed in passing these laws will have serious implications for Democrats in the midterms.

DEMOCRATIC STRENGTHS AND OPPORTUNITIES

• The 2022 Senate map is favorable to Democrats. Democrats have the opportunity to play offense in states President Biden won—like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—and purple states with a history of electing Democrats to the Senate—like North Carolina and Ohio. 

• Midterm elections are a referendum on how voters feel about the sitting president. That’s a good thing for Democrats—President Biden enjoys a positive approval rating, and his signature legislation to-date, the American Rescue Plan, is hugely popular with voters of all party affiliation. The same can be said for the American Jobs Plan, his infrastructure proposal.

OFF THE SIDELINES’ 2022 STRATEGY

• Here at Off the Sidelines, our first priority is to support incumbent members of congress whose seats are essential to holding our House and Senate majorities.

• In the Senate, we’re supporting the four women Senators up for re-election—Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, Tammy Duckworth, Maggie Hassan, and Patty Murray—along with Kirsten’s colleagues in battleground states whose races may determine Senate control—including Sens. Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly.

• With national Republicans bullish on their odds of retaking the House, we’re laser-focused on supporting House members in swing districts across the country, and closer to home in New York state—including Reps. Lauren Underwood, Lucy McBath, and Katie Porter.