Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
April 7, 2021
Top of the Agenda
IMF Projects Swifter Recovery From Pandemic’s Economic Fallout
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast (WSJ) for global economic growth in 2021 to 6 percent, up from a projection of 5.5 percent in January, which would be the global economy’s fastest expansion in at least four decades. 

COVID-19 vaccination efforts and government stimulus will drive the economic growth (AP), the IMF said. The U.S. economy, recently buoyed by a $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package, is expected to expand by 6.4 percent this year as it joins other wealthy economies in leading the global recovery. However, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath warned of “divergences” in how quickly countries recover from the pandemic and said that, without “additional efforts” (CNBC), the long-standing trend of decreasing global poverty could reverse.
Analysis
“Advanced economies, especially the US, have acted forcefully to reignite their economies and support vulnerable businesses and households...Most developing countries, however, are struggling to obtain the funds to maintain existing support programs, let alone absorb the additional costs imposed by the pandemic,” CFR’s A. Michael Spence writes with Columbia University’s Joseph E. Stiglitz and the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Jayati Ghosh.
 
“If policymakers and corporate leaders do not make women’s economic participation central to their post-pandemic recovery planning, even the modest economic gains that women have made in recent decades will be lost—and the world’s economic prospects will significantly weaken as a result,” CFR’s Jamille Bigio and Rachel Vogelstein write with McKinsey & Company’s Kweilin Ellingrud, Mekala Krishnan, and Anu Madgavkar for Foreign Affairs.

Pacific Rim
Taiwan to Hold Simulations of Attack by China
Taiwan’s defense ministry said the country will hold eight days of computer simulations (Reuters) depicting an attack by China at the end of this month. The exercises will be the first stage of Taiwan’s largest annual war games. China has recently increased military pressure on Taiwan.
 
China: A court announced that two Uyghurs who were previously government officials in the Xinjiang region were sentenced to death (CNA), with two-year reprieves, for conducting “separatist activities.” The United States has accused China of committing genocide of the Uyghurs and others in Xinjiang.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at China’s repression of Uyghurs.

South and Central Asia
India’s Daily Coronavirus Cases Surge to Record High
India’s health ministry reported (NPR) nearly 116,000 new COVID-19 cases today, a record. The head of the Serum Institute of India, which is the world’s biggest vaccine producer, said yesterday that its production of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine is “very stressed.”
 
Pakistan: Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today in Islamabad and said afterward that their countries have “convergent positions” (Reuters) on peace in Afghanistan, among other issues. Lavrov, who is the first Russian foreign minister to visit in nine years, will also meet with Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said.

Middle East and North Africa
U.S., Iran Inch Toward Return to Nuclear Deal
Signatories of the 2015 nuclear agreement met in Vienna yesterday and agreed to form two working groups (NYT). One will focus on returning Iran to compliance with the deal, which it has increasingly violated, and the other will explore how the United States, which left the deal in 2018, can return to the agreement by lifting sanctions on Iran. U.S. and Iranian officials called the talks “constructive” (Al Jazeera).
 
Iran: An explosion damaged a ship reportedly linked to the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the Red Sea. The country’s foreign ministry confirmed the explosion (RFE/RL) but said that the vessel was a civilian ship. An unnamed U.S. official told the New York Times that Israel attacked the ship in retaliation for Iranian strikes on Israeli vessels.
This Day in History: April 7, 1957
U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower asserts that the fall of French Indochina to communist forces will trigger other countries in Asia to fall to communism. The “domino theory” would shape U.S. foreign policy for several decades.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Latest Talks on Nile Dam Fail
Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan ended their latest negotiations (National) over Ethiopia’s disputed dam on the Blue Nile river without reaching a deal. Egypt and Sudan, which support more international mediation of the talks, blamed Ethiopia. In a statement, the Ethiopian government rebuked their actions (Addis Standard) and said it cannot make an agreement that violates its “legitimate rights” to the river.
 
Nigeria: President Muhammadu Buhari approved the replacement (VOA) of Inspector General of Police Muhammed Adamu days after nearly two thousand inmates escaped when alleged separatists attacked a prison in the town of Owerri. No official reason was given for Adamu’s dismissal.

Europe
Ukraine Seeks NATO Membership to Ward Off Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for his country to be placed on a pathway (Guardian) to membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during a conversation with the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg. Zelensky said NATO is the only way to end the conflict with Russia in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
 
This CFR Backgrounder explains the Donbas conflict.
 
United Kingdom: The government officially launched (WSJ) a new regulatory body, the Digital Markets Unit, to ensure that technology companies such as Facebook and Google do not stifle competition. However, the unit cannot impose fines until Parliament approves legislation detailing its power.

Americas
Brazil Sets New Daily Record for COVID-19 Deaths
Brazil recorded more than four thousand daily COVID-19 deaths for the first time as its health-care system threatens to collapse (LAHT). The government resumed a slimmed-down version of a monthly subsidy program it implemented last year to help Brazil’s poorest people amid the pandemic’s economic fallout.
 
Mexico: President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he will receive a COVID-19 vaccine (Al Jazeera) to “set an example,” reversing his position on the matter for the second time. Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard announced that he will soon visit (Reuters) China, India, Russia, and the United States to secure Mexico’s vaccine supplies.

United States
Biden Administration Dismisses Vaccine Passport
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the Joe Biden administration would not create (Hill) a so-called COVID-19 vaccine passport system, dismissing the possibility of a federal vaccinations database or a requirement for a “single vaccination credential.”
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