Web Version [link removed] | Update Preferences [link removed] [link removed] Unemployment Data Update: March 2020 through March 27, 2021 Unemployment Insurance Claims

During the week of March 27, a rise in initial claims under the regular program outweighed drops in PUA claims by the self-employed.

In California, initial claims processed in the regular program were up 10.0% compared to the prior week, while PUA claims were down by 19.9%. In the national totals, regular claims rose 9.7%, while PUA claims were down by 1.7% due to large increases in Ohio. Combined, total claims processed were up 4.7% in California and 6.6% in the US numbers.

The most current results show a small uptick in the previous downward trends in both California and the other states.

County Tier Status & the Unemployed

In the most recent results for February, California had the third-highest unemployment rate in the country, behind only Hawaii which is even more dependent on tourism-related employment, and New York which adopted lock-down strategies comparable to California’s.

These numbers only cover the officially unemployed and not workers who have left the labor force during the pandemic period including workers who have given up on trying to find a job, workers who are fearful of contracting the disease if they get a job, and parents who have had to quit their jobs to take care of their children while the California public schools have remained closed.

The most recent tier allocations for the week of March 30 from the Department of Public Health [[link removed]] show continuing improvement in the ability of many counties to begin reopening jobs and begin reducing unemployment. Only 2.7% of the unemployed from January are in counties under the strongest state restrictions, and 42.7% still remain in the second most restrictive Tier 2. All counties remain under some level of restrictions which present barriers to the state’s economic recovery.

The state’s response to date also has focused on moving the counties to lower tiers as vaccinations take hold along with payments to mitigate the effects of the state’s strategies, in the form of higher benefits to unemployed workers and loans and grants to employers. No substantive actions have yet been taken to accelerate recovery and counter the looming threats of long-term unemployment—especially among the low-income workers hit hardest by the state’s strategies—to wages, incomes, and worsening income inequality.

The chart above is based on the 1.7 million workers officially classified as unemployed in January and not those who are no longer counted as being in the labor force.

Vaccine Tracker

In the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control [[link removed]], California remained just above the US average in the share of vaccine doses being administered but still ranked behind 28 other states, the federal entities, and 2 territories. Total vaccine supplies were up 3.3 million for the week (12.1% of the national gain), while the number of shots administered were up 2.5 million (12.1% of the national total). As of midday April 1, a total of 24.3 million shots have been administered in the state covering 12.4 million people, or 31.3% of the population.

Backlog

EDD has again changed how it is reporting its backlog numbers, making it difficult to compare progress since September. The data initially reported in the weekly dashboard accounts also appear to have been revised with updated numbers, although the shifts are just as likely coming from differences in the definition of “week of.”

The revised chart below draws on both sets of results. Data for the week of February 6 and earlier are from the total of backlog claims reported in the prior EDD accounting as of the stated date. Data beginning the week of February 13 is from the new report template. Based on the prior reporting, claims awaiting claimant action are associated with the initial claims. Backlog as before is based on those awaiting action for 21 days or longer.

Overall, the backlogs in the week of March 20 were a little changed. Backlog due to EDD actions was down 4.8% to 152,044. Total backlog was down only 0.2% to 1,057,016.

Long Term Unemployment

As an indicator of the growing problems associated with long-term unemployment, payments for the extended benefits programs (PEUC and Fed Ed) exceeded those for the regular benefits (regular and PUA) for the first time during the week of March 20, accounting for just over half of total payments that week at 50.3%.

UI Fund

In the most recent data from EDD [[link removed]], California paid out a total of $132.2 billion in benefits under all the UI programs over the year beginning through the week of March 7, 2020, and continuing through the week of March 20, 2021. The reporting will face fewer delays than previously anticipated, as EDD recently announced [[link removed]] workers with exhausted PUA claims now will be able to begin certification under the recent federal extension two weeks earlier than announced previously.

The most current estimate [[link removed]] is that up to $31 billion of unemployment benefits was paid out to fraudulent claims, consisting of $11 billion in known fraud and up to $20 billion in suspected fraud.

The most recent data from the US Department of Labor [[link removed]] indicates California’s outstanding loans from the Federal Unemployment Account were $21.5 billion, or 40% of the total amount owed by 19 states and 1 territory.

visit the center for jobs » [[link removed]] The California Center for Jobs and the Economy provides an objective and definitive source of information pertaining to job creation and economic trends in California. [[link removed]] Contact 1301 I Street Sacramento, CA 95814 916.553.4093 If you no longer wish to receive these emails, select here to unsubscribe. [link removed]