Received this from a friend? SUBSCRIBE [[link removed]] CRITICAL STATE Your weekly foreign policy fix. If you read just one thing …

… read about growing violence in al-Hol.

Conditions are worsening at Syria’s al-Hol refugee camp. According to documents obtained [[link removed]] by the Danish Broadcasting Corporation, violence is on the rise in the camp, which is home to some 60,000 refugees displaced by violence in Syria and Iraq. As many as 40 people had been killed in the camp in 2021 as of March 23 — in March, the killings have come at a rate of almost one per day. By comparison, in the whole of 2019, there were nine homicides in the camp. According to humanitarian workers, the rise in violence began in the second half of 2020, and has curtailed their ability to operate in the camp. The violence has gotten so bad that the Syrian Democratic Forces recently launched an operation in al-Hol to confiscate weapons, which has resulted in over 30 arrests. The drivers of the violence are unclear, but the sudden spike in killings reflects the extent to which refugee camps, far from being safe havens, can become sites of violent political contestation unto themselves.

Industrial safety threats

Last week marked the 110th anniversary of the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire, a landmark industrial disaster that galvanized a wave of organizing for worker safety protections in the US. Yet today, many workers are still endangered by their employers. A hair-raising investigation [[link removed]] by the Tampa Bay Times highlights conditions in a Tampa lead smelter where levels of lead dust in the air vastly exceed legal limits.

The story includes video from the smelter of lead dust billowing through work spaces, covering workers in dangerous particles. The workers wear respirators, but even still, 80% of workers studied had enough lead in their blood to cause health problems. At least 16 children have suffered from lead exposure that likely stems from dust accidentally brought home by a parent who works in the plant.

Gopher, the company that operates the smelter, regularly told employees who had elevated lead levels in their blood streams that they were cleared to work. The company’s strategy for lowering lead exposure was to tie employee bonuses to levels of lead found in employee blood tests. In an effort to avoid losing out on bonuses, employees often donated blood before being tested, hoping that it would reduce their lead levels.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] Facial recognition sneaking up from behind

The FBI’s outsourcing of its search for Jan. 6 Capitol Hill insurrectionists is having a concerning second-order effect: mainstreaming the use of facial recognition technology in US criminal investigations. The FBI has internal rules that govern the instances in which investigators are allowed to use facial recognition databases, but those rules do not apply to the public-at-large. When Huffington Post reporters spoke [[link removed]] to amateur sleuths helping the FBI with the Jan. 6 investigation, they found that the amateurs are only too happy to rely on facial recognition to generate the tips they send to law enforcement.

The problems with laundering facial recognition use through private tipsters are (at least) twofold. First, the civil liberties problems that arise from relying on private databases of people’s faces to accuse people of crimes don’t go away when private enthusiasts are the ones querying the databases.

Second, the technology being mainstreamed by the Jan. 6 investigation is notoriously inaccurate when evaluating people of color. That bias is likely to further entrench policing inequalities as facial recognition becomes a more widespread tool in law enforcement.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] DEEP DIVE Gender matters in the military: Part I

January marked five years since the US military opened up combat arms billets to women. That shift changed the way women are treated within the military and the way the US government thinks about gender and security. In the next two deep dives, we’ll look at new research on how US attitudes about gender and conflict have evolved since the end of sex segregation of military occupational specialties (MOS).

In an article [[link removed]] in the latest issue of the Journal of Peace Research, political scientists Dara Kay Cohen, Connor Huff, and Robert Schub (who sets a Critical State record by having his research appear in consecutive issues) examined the state of public opinion on women in combat in the years since 2016. They set out to test statements made about the effect that women dying in combat might have on public support for US wars during the debate around opening up combat arms MOS to women. Opponents of ending sex segregation argued that women dying in war would be a drain on the public’s will to fight, which would lead to lower US resolve in wars if women were allowed on the front lines. Some supporters of women’s equality in the military, however, argued that the opposite would happen: Women in combat would be venerated as heroes and drive support for gender equality in other aspects of US life. Neither side had a great deal of evidence to back up their claims, so Cohen et al. set out to see whether, after the policy was implemented, either of the predictions came true.

To test the theories, Cohen et al. ran a major national survey in 2018, and then a number of smaller follow-up survey experiments to better understand the results. The initial survey offered respondents a hypothetical situation where a soldier named Todd or Mary — the name was switched for each respondent — was killed in a US special forces mission in Africa. Respondents were then asked whether they thought US involvement in the mission was a mistake, and a series of questions about their support for different forms of gender equality. In the follow-up survey, respondents were given more information about the hypothetical conflict and mission, and the number of reported casualties increased.

The results don’t look good for people who claimed that women dying in combat reduces support for war among the US public. Cohen et al. found that respondents basically didn’t care about the gender of the deceased soldiers. On a 7-point scale of support, shifting the soldier’s name from Todd to Mary reduced support for the mission by an average of 0.03 — statistically, no reduction at all. What’s more, no one cared. By breaking down the results by respondent age or gender, the numbers change very little.

For people who claimed that women in combat arms roles would bring about a shift in public attitudes about gender equality, the results are more complicated. Cohen et al. found that women dying in combat did increase public support for the idea of women military leaders — but only among women. Similarly, the initial survey showed an increase in support for private gender equality — measured in terms of support for equitable distribution of household chores between women and men — among women respondents when presented with women dying in combat. Yet, in follow-up surveys, the effect disappeared and women respondents’ responses looked much the same as men’s responses.

The arrival of women in US combat arms roles has, Cohen et al. show, been met with a resounding “sure.” Representation among those who die for their country matters in certain contexts to those being represented, but there is little evidence to suggest that the gender of combat casualties changes the way most Americans think about war and peace. In an era when constant US military deployments seem to drag on independently of public support for them, the prospect that women’s involvement on the front lines of those deployments could move public opinion one way or the other appears remote.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] SHOW US THE RECEIPTS

Shirin Jaafari profiled [[link removed]] Afghan rapper Ali ATH as the prospect of the Taliban’s return to power threatens his future as an artist. Ali ATH is a Kabul-based emcee who makes a living as a musician in Afghanistan’s burgeoning rap scene. Increased violence in recent months has kept him mostly confined to his neighborhood, but he hopes ongoing peace talks will result in a political settlement that will allow him to keep making music in Kabul. Members of his family have fled Afghanistan for Iran, but he says he intends to stay and work on expanding the infrastructure for rap in Afghanistan.

Robert McKee Irwin clarified [[link removed]] the content of major immigration measures Congress is considering. A bill proposed by the Biden administration first addresses deportation by offering some undocumented immigrants who have been in the US for a long time or who arrived as children a path to citizenship and giving the government more latitude to halt or delay deportations. As Irwin pointed out, the US is currently the harshest country in the world toward undocumented immigrants, routinely breaking up families through mass deportations without the “regularization” programs common in Europe. The bill then attempts to reduce the number of Central Americans seeking asylum in the US by offering aid to Guatemala, El Salvaldor, and Honduras, in hopes of addressing the issues causing people to flee those countries. Irwin argued that, while such aid may be a long term solution, it does little for the many migrants whose asylum claims have not yet been processed by US courts.

Durrie Bouscaren reported [[link removed]] on a protest in Turkey by five Uyghur women who have been separated from their children by the Chinese government’s policy of repression against Uyghurs. The women are calling on the Turkish government to pressure China to reunite them with their kids. To draw attention to their cause, the women pledged to walk from Istanbul to Ankara. Two weeks into their journey, Turkish police picked them up and drove them the rest of the way to the capital, but they are still awaiting a meeting with the Turkish government. Turkey is home to a large Uyghur diaspora, and many Uyghurs in the country have not been able to reach their family members in China since the Chinese government began its crackdown on Uyghurs in 2017.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] WELL PLAYED

The container ship Ever Given may be unstuck by the time you read this, but we’ll never forget the week of internet magic it gave us while run aground in the Suez Canal. In a time of mass disease and digital threats, the Ever Given was a refreshingly analog problem that was so obvious, it could literally [[link removed]] be seen from space: ship big. Ship big, and canal … not big enough. Here’s a collection of the best Ever Given content ever received.

A think tank [[link removed]] that finally got its moment in the sun. Some [[link removed]] suggestions [[link removed]] about how to move [[link removed]] the boat. Trenchant analysis [[link removed]] of the geopolitics of getting a boat stuck in the world’s most important waterway. Trenchant analysis [[link removed]] of how the boat got stuck in the first place. Adaptations of other [[link removed]] memes to suit the moment. The Ever Given creating its own meme [[link removed]].

Vice: the world’s leading source for news on big military machines shooting [[link removed]] the wrong way [[link removed]].

The current TikTok discourse, but about Mickey Mouse cartoons [[link removed]].

Love to demonstrate respect for legislative institutions by testifying before Congress with the visage of the most famous conspirator to blow up a parliament looming [[link removed]] in the Zoom shot.

The setting [[link removed]] for the new hit HGTV series, Esco-Bargain Hunters.

TFW you excel [[link removed]] at strategic communication.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] Follow The World: DONATE TO THE WORLD [[link removed]] Follow Inkstick: DONATE TO INKSTICK [[link removed]]

Critical State is written by Sam Ratner and is a collaboration between The World and Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Preferences [link removed] | Web Version [link removed] Unsubscribe [link removed]