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March 29, 2021

The Things Out of Biden's Control

You try to set up an agenda and a boat gets stuck in the Suez Canal.

 

The boat is free but the impact continues. (Suez Canal Authority via AP)

The Chief

**We have President Biden today because**, despite all of Donald
Trump's attempts to command attention, something completely out of
control called the coronavirus spread throughout the world. It was the
signature example of how presidents do not have full control of the
forces that define their presidencies. Trump certainly could have
responded to COVID-19 in a way that would have improved his political
standing-according to Dr. Birx hundreds of thousands of deaths

were preventable-but that's purely reactive. Trump didn't invent
the virus in the lab to have something he could conquer.

It's completely unknown right now what will be that defining moment of
the Biden presidency, though obviously COVID and the vaccine rollout has
a good chance. (We've had 10.2 million vaccinations

in the last three days.) The smallest things can trigger major changes
and force presidents into reaction mode. It's a big part of the job.

I'm not talking about something like the child migrant surge
,
which is actually driven by Biden policy; keeping Title 42 (the public
health order that allows immediate deportations due to COVID) in place
but exempting children was always going to create this result. Other
events had no policy trigger, but they will consume a lot of time at the
White House. Here's an early look:

**Read all of our First 100 reports here**

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****

**This boat in the Suez Canal**: So last night, the Ever Given cargo
ship, as big as the Empire State Building on its side, wrested free

from the shore in Egypt. There was one last hiccup
, like
Hans Gruber in Die Hard not quite being dead, as the ship swung back
toward the banks amid high winds. But they managed to steady it, and the
Ever Given is now re-floated, to the dismay of meme makers everywhere
.
Turns out global warming saved us; higher tides

enabled the re-floating.

That is not the end of this crisis, however. There's a backlog of
hundreds of ships with billions of dollars in goods. And global supply
chains were already under strain

before the boat wedged itself in. Semiconductors are in short supply
amid a mismatch between expectations of consumer demand and reality.
Many auto plants have shut down production as a result (good time for a
fire

at an automotive chip factory). High demand has led to ships routinely
sitting offshore

at U.S. ports. And the cold weather in Texas and the South last month
added to the toll, leading to a plastic shortage
.
There's also a container shortage
,
as the pandemic has played havoc with supply chains. This is a partial
list.

Because many ships stuck in the Suez queue decided to take a two-week
trip around the Cape of Good Hope, the after effects of the stuck boat
will endure. We also live in a just-in-time logistics world where even
minor disruptions

can ripple out. Shortages can lead to inflation

and dampened economic activity. They can lead to the shutdown of entire
industries.

The lessons of supply chain vulnerability

are significant. We have super-sized ships
and
shipping companies which make our economy less resilient; the shipping
industry is nearly seven times more consolidated now than it was in
2000. Centralized production in Asian manufacturing hubs causes similar
problems. Matt Stoller

has a lot more about this built-in fragility into the global economic
system. Possible responses include reshoring (Intel is making a major
commitment
),
breaking apart consolidations that make the world so susceptible to
disruptions, and ending constant debt financing so big boats seem more
efficient and little things like quality control aren't sacrificed.

Support Independent, Fact-Checked Journalism

The Amazon union election: In a very real sense, the outcome of the
warehouse election in Bessemer, Alabama, which ends today, will set a
course for the revival of organized labor in the United States. Unions
know this; that's why they've made such a big bet on the outcome,
funneling resources to assist the RWDSU in their fight. Jeff Bezos knows
it; that's why he apparently ordered his PR department

to go insane on Twitter.

Suggesting that a win in Bessemer can spread across the country is
something we have heard in other contexts for a long time. But it really
is true here
;
Amazon has hundreds of thousands of warehouse workers, and retail more
generally could see a boost from a newly galvanized retail workers
union. Ultimately you need something like the PRO Act to allow for
widespread unionization; but something like this election could provide
a spark.

Union households went for Trump in increasing numbers but still not at
the same rate as similarly situated working class people. Biden clearly
wants blue-collar workers back

in the Democratic column; this could be a way to get there. We should
know the results pretty soon.

The pandemic isn't done: Variants in the United States have reversed
the trend on cases
,
although as I noted on Friday that might not necessarily lead to more
deaths. Variants in Brazil have that country with an out of control
outbreak, and that mutation has already been seen in New York. Variants
and a bad vaccine launch in Europe has countries spiraling and economies
sagging. And lack of vaccines throughout the world means that these
tragedies could be replicated for years.

Biden will still have to deal with COVID-19, maybe for the entire length
of his first term. The administration is reportedly considering lifting
the intellectual property shield

for vaccines and treatments (and treatments like a new pill for COVID
are arguably more important, because you end up needing to give it to
fewer people), and that will be a critical decision. We have to make
ameliorants to this crisis available to everyone as soon as humanly
possible.

We Depend on Your Donations

What Day of Biden's Presidency Is It?

Day 69.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* The CDC is extending the eviction moratorium

until June 30. (CDC)

* We are moving toward vaccine passports
.
(

**Washington Post**)

* Every dollar of the American Rescue Plan's money for schools should
go to upgrading HVAC systems
,
the return on investment is so great. (Axios)

* If Republican AGs manage to take down some of the ARP
,
it'll be a good lesson on how to judge-proof these bills. (

**New Republic**)

* Moderate Democrats are balking at the Biden tax increases
.
(Axios)

* U.S. concerned that China will take control of Taiwan
.
(

**Financial Times**)

* Meanwhile tariffs on China

will continue. (

**Wall Street Journal**)

* More on Congress's inaction

on the Congressional Review Act. (Kaiser Health News)

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