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March 25, 2021

President Manchin's Agenda

Plus, real talk about the border

 

Joe Manchin in his natural habitat, talking to reporters about things he
wants done. (Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images)

The Chief

Moderate members of Congress who represent the margin of victory on
legislation always get outsized attention. You might say that's why
they're moderates; nobody's hanging on Richard Blumenthal's every
word, after all (though they should! Blumenthal is an underrated
lawmaker. But I digress.) But the combination of an extremely narrow
Senate majority and pent-up demand for liberal policies have forced us
to peer entirely too deeply into the mind of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
And it's a pretty confusing place.

Manchin has kind of a shtick on big bills, where he stakes out a very
rigid position, calls for bipartisanship around it, and then signs on to
the Democratic position, once he wins something or other. That thing can
be harmless or even laudatory. On the American Rescue Plan it was the
Butch Lewis Act, the $86 billion multiemployer pension rescue, which was
a priority of a lot of the caucus but was Manchin's bill

for years. But it was also the cutback of $100 a week on the federal
unemployment enhancement in exchange for one additional week of
coverage, and the rapid narrowing of the phase-out on direct payments.
There was no economic or even political case for this other than for
Manchin to say he changed the law.

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Now we're seeing this play out on additional parts of the Democratic
agenda. Two weeks ago Manchin said Republicans had to be included

in any infrastructure bill in order to win his vote. This would threaten
to sink the entire project. Then yesterday he said

that the package would be "huge," as much as $4 trillion

(above the $3 trillion plan Biden will reportedly roll out next week),
and that it should be paid for by raising taxes on corporations and the
wealthy, something no Republican would ever agree to. Pressed on that
fundamental distinction, Manchin said Republican intransigence was not
"reasonable," asking, "Where do they think it's going to come
from? How are you going to fix America?"

This suggests that Manchin knows well that infrastructure will only
happen through the reconciliation process, and that "including"
Republicans means allowing them to reject tax increases before finding a
way around them. This increases the chances of success over the too-cute
White House theory that you could pass the pieces that Republicans like
through a regular bill and throw everything else into reconciliation,
hoping that the opposition just plays along. I don't know that every
dollar needs to be offset on this bill, but we're talking about
someone in Manchin who gets a call from staff daily updating him on the
precise national debt figure. So that's where we are.

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Of course, Manchin is making a lot of announcements these days, because
literally every item on the agenda is subservient to his agreement. As I
noted yesterday, he's against

anything even two inches to the left of the background check bill he
couldn't pass in 2013, making progress on gun safety so remote that
the Biden team is dipping into executive orders

to see what can be done. (I'm big on executive action, as you know,
but guns are an area where you need to legislate.) He was among those
taking down the $15 minimum wage bill
,
although his plan to get to $11 rapidly and then index to inflation
shares similarities with the long phase-in for $15. Bernie Sanders
apparently rejected this

in a meeting this week, which I think wasn't smart.

Wait there's more. Manchin opined on S.1, the democracy bill that
includes independent redistricting and voter participation standards and
more public financing of elections, which got its first Senate hearing

yesterday. He said that any bill on voting would need bipartisan support

"to be accepted as legitimate by U.S. voters." This essentially
gives voter-suppressing conservatives a veto over ending their own
suppression. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also told labor groups
this week

that they need to find 50 co-sponsors for the PRO Act, a welcome change
to labor law that would eliminate right-to-work laws and punish union
busting, to get a floor vote. Guess who's one of the 5 Democrats not
signed on? Manchin.

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I'll add here that Manchin did save the job of Colin Kahl
, nominated for a
chief policy position at the Defense Department. Manchin voted for Kahl
in committee, making it likely that he'd be confirmed. Manchin has
played kingmaker on all controversial nominations, taking down Neera
Tanden but mostly letting Biden's choices through.

Manchin is right now leading a group of 20 Senators

charged with showing that the Senate can work under the current rules.
Another way of saying that is that Manchin is leading a group that's
opposed to Senate majority rule and desperate to find a fig leaf to keep
it at bay. Manchin has said that the filibuster rule enables
"cooperation." If by that you mean cooperating on not doing much of
anything, sure. Manchin desperately wants common ground where none is to
be found. But he's still a West Virginia senator, and he'll take
money to build the Joe Manchin Suspension Bridge. Just not the Joe
Manchin Independent Redistricting Commission.

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Bordering on Truth

We've seen an interesting turnaround on the immigration narrative in
recent days. The media was set to anoint this "Biden's big
crisis," replete with photo evidence

and quotes from the "loyal opposition" like Stephen Miller
,
if you can believe it. But there's truth about the border to be found,
and it's seeping into the coverage
.

Much of the traffic at the border involves repeat expulsions

under the Title 42 order, which allows for immediate deportations on the
basis of protection from COVID. Factor in the repeat crossers and the
numbers are identical to 2019, when Trump was in office before the
pandemic. And if agents have to continually round up the same desperate
border crossers, then the Title 42 order isn't exactly protecting them
from alleged coronavirus exposure, now is it?

The exemption to Title 42 for unaccompanied minors is fueling family
separation
,
only before migrants get into America. I prefer to allow children a
refuge from violence
,
and it's important to understand that the opposing position is to send
them back into hell. But the choice is to follow international law and
let everyone seeking asylum a path to do so, or to violate it

through a draconian order, the exemptions of which are perpetuating an
influx of young people.

Immigration is endless fodder for demagoguery, but at least there's
some real talk

slipping into the usual coverage. Biden does need to manage the
situation because of the delicate politics; so far he's delegated to
Kamala Harris
,
whose focus will be on international diplomacy. Countries ravaged by
hurricanes

and bad COVID response will trigger out-migration, and the goal needs to
be making those countries more hospitable.

Here's a good op-ed on the subject

from Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar, of the border city of El Paso,
Texas. And here's a bad suggestion

from more moderate border Dem Filemon Vela, asserting that some children
are too old to get protection from violence.

What Day of Biden's Presidency Is It?

Day 65.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* The Agriculture Department pulls out of a lawsuit

that could have limited food assistance to 700,000 adults. Executive
action matters. (Fox61)

* Great overview of the Biden transition and personnel battles

from Jeff Hauser and David Segal. (Democracy Journal)

* Biden's ego might make him a good president
. (Discourse Blog)

* New Justice Department ruling states
that direct
payments and child tax credits will not count as estate assets in
bankruptcy. (DoJ)

* The SEC has opened an investigation into SPACs
,
interesting. (Reuters)

* Speaking of financial regulation, vintage Elizabeth Warren here
grilling a reluctant Janet
Yellen on enhanced supervision of asset managers. (YouTube)

* This attempted exemption

for Biden White House officials from financial disclosures is really
weak. (ABC News)

* Amazing that one ship stuck in the Suez Canal can damage the global
supply chain

this much. (Wall Street Journal)

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