Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
March 22, 2021
Top of the Agenda
U.S. Defense Secretary Visits Afghanistan Amid Efforts to End the Country’s Conflict
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III held surprise talks with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul yesterday as the United States and other foreign powers intensify efforts to wind down Afghanistan’s decades-long conflict. Afghanistan’s presidential palace said the officials shared concerns (TOLOnews) about increasing violence in the country and reiterated the importance of establishing peace. Austin tweeted that dialogue was “very helpful” (Reuters).

The meeting came as the United States faces a deadline to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by May 1, as agreed to in a deal with the Taliban last year. However, U.S. President Joe Biden has said meeting this deadline will be “tough,” and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance will not leave until the timing is right and certain conditions have been met (Al Jazeera). U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to meet (WSJ) with NATO allies this week.
Analysis
“If the Taliban doesn’t agree to an extension [of the deadline for withdrawing U.S. troops] (the odds are that it won’t), the Biden administration will be left with the unpalatable choices of pulling out anyway—risking a collapse of the Afghan state—or remaining embroiled in the ‘forever war,’” CFR’s Max Boot writes.

“If the United States withdraws all forces this year without a political settlement, the peace process would collapse and the scramble for power that would ensue would likely lead the country into a bloodier, multi-sided civil war,” the International Crisis Group’s Laurel Miller writes for CFR.

Pacific Rim
Australia Battles Severe Weather
Nearly twenty thousand people were evacuated (BBC) due to flooding in the Australian state of New South Wales. All but one of the country’s mainland states and territories are under a weather warning (SMH).
 
China/Philippines: Manila launched a diplomatic protest (Philippine Daily Inquirer) against Beijing and urged it to recall more than two hundred allegedly Chinese boats seen in a contested area of the South China Sea earlier this month, Philippine officials said.

South and Central Asia
Coronavirus Cases Spike in India
India reported nearly forty-seven thousand new COVID-19 cases today, its highest daily jump in months (PTI). Less than 4 percent of the population (BBC) has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Middle East and North Africa
Iran Doubles Down on Nuclear Deal Position
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reaffirmed his country’s commitment (RFE/RL) to only returning to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, which it has increasingly violated, after the United States lifts all sanctions against Iran.
 
This CFR Backgrounder explains the Iran nuclear deal.
 
Israel: The country holds its fourth parliamentary elections (AP) in two years tomorrow. Polls indicate a close race, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a slight edge. Tens of thousands of people urged Netanyahu to resign (TOI) at a protest in Jerusalem on Saturday.
 
CFR’s James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon preview the Israeli elections on The World Next Week podcast.
This Day in History: March 22, 1945
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and North Yemen form the Arab League to protect the region’s independence and promote cooperation among the members.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Congolese Opposition Candidate Dies on Election Day
The main opposition candidate in the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, died on his way to France to be treated for COVID-19 (AFP, France 24). President Denis Sassou-N’Guesso is expected to win the election, which occurred yesterday.
 
Mauritania/Qatar: Mauritania reestablished diplomatic ties (Al Jazeera) with Qatar, the Mauritanian foreign ministry announced. Nouakchott had severed relations with Doha in 2017 as part of a Saudi-led campaign against Qatar for its alleged support of terrorism, among other issues.

Europe
Turkey Withdraws From Accord on Protecting Women
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan withdrew Turkey from the Istanbul Convention, a treaty that seeks to prevent violence against women (Politico). Protests erupted in Turkey, and the European Union, the United States, and the UN women’s organization criticized Erdogan’s decision.
 
United Kingdom: A demonstration against a bill that would broaden the power of police to restrict protests turned violent in the city of Bristol. Officials condemned the incident (Guardian), during which protesters set fire to police vehicles and officers were injured.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at what police are like around the world.

Americas
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Rebukes Coronavirus-Cautious Officials
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called governors and mayors “tyrants” (BBC) for locking down their jurisdictions due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Ministry of Health waived a mandate for authorities to retain half their COVID-19 vaccine supplies for second doses. The move is an effort to swiftly distribute at least one dose to as many people as possible.
 
Mexico/United States: Mexico’s National Institute of Migration said authorities detained (LAHT) ninety-five Central American migrants who traveled by plane from southern Mexico to a city near the U.S.-Mexico border. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said “the border is closed” (WaPo) as an increasing number of migrants seek to enter the United States.

United States
Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Appears Effective in U.S. Trial
The University of Oxford and pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca announced that a U.S. clinical trial showed their COVID-19 vaccine to be safe and 79 percent effective overall (WaPo). AstraZeneca said it would apply for emergency use authorization.
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