: Why is Florida the Covid anomaly?

If you read one thing today, let it be this profile of Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis from CNN's Jeff Zeleny.

If you've been angry at Covid restrictions and questioning whether they're necessary, it'll have you fist pumping.
If you're wondering why Florida's death rate is not much worse than California's, it won't exactly answer why.
If you've been living in lockdown and wondering why some people aren't, it might make you quite mad.

As DeSantis soars in the minds of many Republicans, it's worth noting that California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is on the brink of a possible recall election after he hypocritically dined out with friends while Californians were told to be at home.

Frustrations over data. It's worth noting here that there have been some questions about Florida's data. The Miami Herald reported in March about frustrations among researchers and journalists that the state's health department has been reluctant to share numbers that betray DeSantis' narrative. Read that here.

For now, DeSantis is the poster child of people who oppose Covid restrictions. What's in italics below comes from Zeleny's report:

No mask mandate. No business curbs. As many parts of the country embark on an uneasy march toward normalcy, Florida is not only back in business -- it's been in business for the better part of the past year. DeSantis' gamble to take a laissez faire approach appears to be paying off -- at least politically, at least for now, as other governors capturing attention in the opening phase of the pandemic now face steeper challenges.

Not fewer infections or deaths. But not more. Despite far fewer rules and restrictions, Florida lands nearly in the middle of all states on a variety of coronavirus metrics. The state has had about 3% more Covid-19 cases per capita than the US overall, but about 8% fewer deaths per capita. More than 32,000 Floridians have died of Covid-19, and the state's per capita death rate ranks 24th in the nation.

Living their lives. DeSantis -- who, at 42, is the nation's youngest governor -- is standing out among his peers and seizing upon what he and his supporters believe is a vindication for their policies.

Saving lives vs. saving livelihoods. Lockdowns and school openings are suddenly a new measure for voters to hold governors and other elected officials accountable, a sign that the politics of the pandemic could open an uncertain chapter for many holding public office. He will be among the governors putting his record to the test when he runs for re-election next year.

"We still have millions of kids across this country who are denied access to in-person education," DeSantis said at the news conference. "We still have businesses closed in many parts of this country. We have millions and millions of lives destroyed."

The economy is up in Florida. The unemployment rate in Florida is 4.8%, according to the latest figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to 6.8% in Texas, 8.8% in New York and 9% in California.

"If you look at what's happening in South Florida right now, I mean this place is booming. It would not be booming if it was shut down," DeSantis said last month as a crush of tourists began arriving. "Los Angeles isn't booming. New York City's not booming. It's booming here because you can live like a human being."

The Covid is not that much worse in Florida. Florida has recorded about 9,204 cases per 100,000 people and about 150 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. Across the country overall, there have been about 8,969 cases per 100,000 people and 163 deaths per 100,000 people.

Despite far more stringent restrictions, California only ranks one spot better than Florida in both measures. Its death rate is about 5% lower than Florida's, which means about 1,500 lives could have been saved in Florida if the state's death rate matched that of California.

But it's warmer, more humid, less dense. Comparing one state to another is complicated and often counterproductive, said Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida College of Public Health who maintains his own Covid dashboard. For example, he said, the humidity of Florida and the density of New York City offer entirely different scenarios for fighting coronavirus.

"What I'd love to ask about Florida is, if we had done things differently in Florida, what would it have looked like?" Salemi told CNN. "If you use those metrics of where Florida is relative to a lot of other states, we're looking middle of the pack. So no, it hasn't been a disaster in that we're leading in mortality per capita in cases per capita."

Cities have done what DeSantis would not. Florida has also benefitted from local ordinances requiring masks and restricting the sizes of gatherings. DeSantis has prohibited cities and counties from fining people for refusing to wear masks and is stirring outrage among local officials by pushing to strip their authority to put such rules in place at all.

Throughout the pandemic, it's that defiant and often combative DeSantis who has increasingly become the darling of Republicans. He declines most interview requests, including from CNN, even as he frequently appears on Fox News and other propaganda platforms. He has been locked in one fight after another with the state's media over transparency on Covid statistics and other issues.

Zeleny interviewed former Gov. (and former Republican) Charlie Crist, now a Democratic congressman, who is considering a challenge to DeSantis. Crist pointed out 33,000 Floridians have died, which is horrible. And he is among those calling for an investigation of whether DeSantis created a VIP scenario for vaccines.

Zeleny also talked to Floridians at the beach who were supportive, skeptical and in the dark about DeSantis.

Bottom Line: Now, DeSantis is seen by many grassroots conservatives as a potential 2024 presidential candidate. That path depends on his gubernatorial reelection next year.

His long-range future, of course, also depends on the outcome of the rest of the pandemic. Yet it's clear he hopes to make that his new calling card, which he telegraphed in a fundraising appeal for Republican governors that he sent to supporters on Tuesday.