Initial claims jumped again in California while easing in the rest of the US during the week of March 6. Combined with the higher California numbers and continued elevated claims in Ohio, the national numbers overall were largely stable.

In California, initial claims processed in the regular program were up 19.0% compared to the prior week, while PUA claims were up more sharply at 35.8%. In the national totals, regular claims were down 6.2%, while PUA claims rose 9.6%. Combined, total claims processed jumped 22.9% in California but were essentially level in the US total, edging down only 0.4%.

The latest week’s results indicate that the overall trend remains highly variable in California, with the trend from the rest of the states largely steady in a gradual downward trend.

The most recent tier allocations for the week of March 2 from Department of Public Health show increased movement in the Tier designations, with six counties moving from Tier 1 to Tier 2, two moving from Tier 2 to Tier 3, and one (Alpine) moving from Tier 3 to Tier 4. These shifts provide for some increased opportunities to reverse the growth in unemployment claims by returning workers to jobs. Even with these shifts, however, 83% of the unemployed from the December numbers continue to be in counties under the most restrictive Tier 1 provisions, and another 17% are in counties with the second most restrictive Tier 2 provisions. Furthermore, no counties are in a “green” tier removing all restrictions to allow jobs recovery to return to more normal conditions, nor are there any provisions for such a tier in the current Blueprint that would remove state control over job growth.

The chart above is based on the 1.7 million workers officially classified as unemployed in December. Adding in those leaving the labor force raises the total closer to 2.3 million. 

In the most recent data from Centers for Disease Control, California fell behind many other states in the share of vaccine doses being administered. Total vaccine supplies were up 2.5 million for the week (11.4% of the national gain), while the number of shots administered were up 1.4 million (8.3% of the national total). As of midday March 13, a total of 11.2 million shots have been administered in the state covering 7.6 million people, or 19% of the population.

EDD has not yet released their update of the backlog data for the week of March 10.

In the most recent data from EDD, California paid out a total of $126 billion in benefits under all the UI programs in the period March 7 through February 27. This amount does not yet include the benefit extensions approved in the December federal COVID Relief bill, as EDD just recently announced they are now able to process worker claims for this federal assistance. The most current estimate is that up to $31 billion of this amount was paid out to fraudulent claims, consisting of $11 billion in known fraud and up to $20 billion in suspected fraud.

The most recent data from US Department of Labor indicates California’s outstanding loans from the Federal Unemployment Account were $20.2 billion, or 39% of the total amount owed by 20 states.