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February 26, 2021

Put the Minimum Wage Bill on the Floor

Democrats should want to get caught trying to expand wage

 

This picture, but in bill form, on the floor of Congress. (J. Scott
Applewhite/AP Photo)

The Chief

In the world's most boring update of LeBron James' "The
Decision," Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth McDonough quietly
announced her ruling

that the increase in the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025 is not in
order for budget reconciliation. We know that the minimum wage hike
produces changes in outlays and revenues, as the Congressional Budget
Office confirmed

earlier this month. What McDonough had to rule to put the provision out
of order under the "Byrd rule" is that those changes were "merely
incidental to the non-budgetary components of the provision." In other
words, she had to read the mind of a legislation and decide what parts
of it are incidental and what parts are primary.

That's where we're at in America.

It's a stupid process that's only necessary because a handful
Democrats refuse to overturn another stupid process, the filibuster and
minority rule. So they shoehorn the only legislating they can get done
in a polarized Senate into a plainly inappropriate mechanism meant to
resolve differences between the federal budget and public policy. "How
democracies die" may sound hyperbolic, but yeah, this would be the
path.

(As an aside, it's not clear to me that the parliamentarian is done
ruling. Changes to the souped-up child tax credit that allow for monthly
advance payments may also be on the chopping block
,
along with the boosts to Affordable Care Act exchanges. Again, stupid
process masking another stupid process.)

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Nevertheless, there are a lot of ways Democrats can get around this
ruling if they really want to. The problem is at least some of their
members have ruled most of these options out. The one option left seems
to be to take a vote. And that would be very much worth doing.

First off, yes, the Vice President can ignore the ruling of the
parliamentarian
.
And though both Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) have
said that they would uphold the Byrd rule to their dying breath, if you
read the latest Congressional Research Service report
on the subject,
you find that, if the chair rejects the parliamentarian's advice and
rules a minimum wage increase in order, it would take 60 votes, not 50,
to appeal that ruling. So Manchin and Sinema would need eight Democratic
friends and all the Republicans to succeed.

This even happened twice in 1993, when Al Gore was VP. And
interestingly, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she will keep the wage
increase in the bill that the House plans to pass today, meaning that
somewhere down the line, Harris will have to make a decision to accept
or ignore. (This is a testament to the power of House progressives, who
could easily sink the bill if Pelosi ditched the wage provision.)

But White House chief of staff Ron Klain said explicitly this week
that
Harris would not ignore the ruling. And Press Secretary Jen Psaki's
statement last night said Biden "respects the parliamentarian's
decision and the Senate's process." So it's not going to happen.

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer could fire the parliamentarian for
making a contrary ruling, and find someone who would put the minimum
wage increase in order. This happened as recently as 2001, when Trent
Lott fired the parliamentarian for adverse rulings in a 50-50 Senate.
But Schumer only said that he was "deeply disappointed" in the
decision, and I just don't see him firing McDonough at this time.

You could change the provision to make it Byrd-friendly. Sens. Ron Wyden
(D-OR) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are already talking about
turning
it into "a tax penalty for mega-corporations that refuse to pay a
living wage." That would probably pass muster, and with companies like
Amazon and Costco

already at or over $15, there's already pressure in the marketplace.

But you'd need to either get that into the base bill (not sure how
likely that is at this late date) or you'd need the votes for an
amendment. And if smaller businesses aren't incorporated it's a
stopgap solution with limited reach. Plus, for all these things you risk
a fight over the full reconciliation package; Sinema has called the
minimum wage increase "inappropriate" for the relief bill, and you
need every Senate Democrat to vote for it for passage. Schumer is trying
to lock down the relief bill

as we speak; no minimum wage, where there is a little opposition,
probably helps him.

You could wait and put the wage increase into the second reconciliation
bill, which will involve infrastructure and jobs. But though people
might be talking themselves into it being a better fit there, I don't
see what would make the parliamentarian change their mind.

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And of course, you could kill the filibuster and end this nonsense once
and for all, restoring majority rule in America. Of course, Manchin and
Sinema are opposed to that, and probably some unnamed Senators are as
well. The only way that changes, in my view, is if Democratic Senators
experience first-hand, again, the wages of total obstruction. And that
argues for putting the minimum wage bill on the floor.

The minimum wage is popular, across the political spectrum. It has
passed in recent voter initiatives in Arkansas, Florida, and Alaska.
Republicans have spent the entire week freaking out about it, coming up
with their own (inadequate) versions, like an increase to $10 an hour

by 2025 and indexed to inflation thereafter, tied to a tightening of
E-Verify rules on undocumented workers. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has a
wage insurance bill

that would top up wages through a partial refundable tax credit.

Both of these are not good ideas, but they reveal the weakness of the
Republican position. So does Sen. John Thune (R-SD) pulling the old
"in my day
we made $6
an hour and we liked it!" without recognizing that, adjusted for
inflation, that equals $24 an hour. Susan Collins is out there admitting

"it's obvious that we do need an increase in the minimum wage,"
and while you may not get 60 votes for $15 an hour, I think you'd be
surprised what negotiations could yield. Manchin proposed $11 an hour by
2022, which is approximately where the Raise the Wage Act
would
have been if it were adopted when released in 2019. I know performing
politics is a foreign concept, but maybe give it a try?

And if you can't get the 60th member of the Senate to go along, then
you put that on the list of policies where the popular will is being
thwarted. So we can have increased wages for 17 million workers or we
can have the filibuster. And we can have democracy reform, which is
incredibly popular
,
or we can have the filibuster. The idea that such theatrics won't move
anyone frankly dooms the nation, and I guess it's fine to give up if
you want. But even if you think this doesn't work on Democrats to
change the filibuster, it certainly lets the base know there's a
debate going on.

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There's a particular type of savvy political cynic constantly making
the case for doing nothing. They need to familiarize themselves with the
concept of "getting caught trying." Barack Obama failed to see the
point in such matters, but fighting for popular policies shows that you
actually stand for something. Pre-gaming everything out and talking
yourself into stasis projects weakness and really negates the point of
politics. Democrats have Congress. They can vote on legislation. The
room's reserved. Show rather than tell that you want every working
American to have a living wage. Put the bill on the floor.

What Day of Biden's Presidency Is It?

Day 38.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* I was on The Signal
talking
about Big Tech. Check it out here. (The Signal)

* The first airstrikes of the Biden presidency fall in Syria
, and
the lack of fanfare or outrage is concerning to me. (CNN)

* Just the $600 checks caused a 10 percent increase

in personal income in January. What's March going to look like with
another $1400 on the way? (Bureau of Economic Affairs)

* Biden will not let schools cancel

standardized testing this year. (CBS News)

* New Labor Department rule

says workers can refuse to go back to a hazardous workplace and still
collect unemployment. (Dept of Labor)

* This FCC subsidy

to low-income households for high-speed internet, up to $50 a month, is
a big deal. (New York Times)

* Will Congress expand the lower courts
?
(Slate)

* Federal judge rules the CDC eviction moratorium unconstitutional

because renting a home is not an economic activity! No injunction yet.
(CNN)

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