While continuing to remain well above more typical levels, initial claims were down substantially in both the state and nation for the week of February 20. While the overall national numbers were lower likely due in part by severe weather conditions, they were also buoyed again by abnormally high claims processed in Ohio in both the regular and PUA programs.

In California, initial claims processed in the regular program were down sharply by 35.9% compared to the prior week, and PUA claims by a comparable rate at 31.7%. In the national totals, regular claims were down 15.6%; PUA claims were down 12.0%. Combined, total claims processed slumped 35.1% in California and 14.3% in the US.

The latest week’s results indicate that the overall trend remains highly variable in California, with the trend from the rest of the states largely steady after accounting for last week’s storms.

While California recently enacted a series of measures to provide assistance and other temporary relief actions for those low-income workers and businesses hit hardest by the state-ordered closures, measures to actually reduce unemployment will require opening up those businesses and jobs, incorporating the protective investments many previously made in anticipation of more flexibility under the state’s provisions. The most recent tier allocations for the week of February 23 from Department of Public Health show some minor movement in the Tier designations, with 5 counties moving from Tier 1 to Tier 2, and one going the other way from Tier 3 to Tier 2. Even with these shifts, 95% of the unemployed from the December numbers continue to be in counties under the most restrictive Tier 1 provision.

The chart above is based on the 1.7 million workers officially classified as unemployed in December. Adding in those leaving the labor force raises the total closer to 2.3 million.

In the most recent data from Centers for Disease Control, California was near but still below the national average in the administration of available vaccine supplies, even as states such as Texas fell behind due to last week’s storms. Total supplies were up 2.0 million for the week ( 9.9% of the national gain), while the number of shots administered was up 1.2 million (11.6% of the national total). To date, 7.9 million shots have been administered in the state covering 5.6 million people, or 14% of the population.

The unemployment insurance backlogs were substantially unchanged in the most recent data from EDD. Backlogged continuing claims as of February 17 were up 16.9% from the prior week. Backlogged initial claims edged down 1.6%. Combined, total backlogged claims were at 1,182,626, or 1.0% higher than the prior week. EDD defines backlogged initial claims are defined as those "applications for benefits that take more than 21 days to issue a first payment or to disqualify the individual, regardless of if the claimant or EDD need to take some kind of action." Backlogged continuing claims are defined as a "subset of all individuals who received at least one payment and are now waiting more than 21 days for further processing of payment or disqualification."

In the most recent data from EDD, California paid out a total of $122 billion in benefits under all the UI programs in the period March 7 through February 13. The most recent estimate is that up to $31 billion of this amount was paid out to fraudulent claims, consisting of $11 billion in known fraud and up to $20 billion in suspected fraud. The $122 billion amount also does not account for the additional $300 a week in enhanced benefits authorized under the federal pandemic relief bill passed in December. Unemployed workers were eligible for these enhanced benefits beginning December 27. California workers will not be receiving the enhanced amounts until at least the beginning of March due to administrative problems at EDD.

The most recent data from US Department of Labor indicates California’s outstanding loans from the Federal Unemployment Account were $19.4 billion, or 39% of the total amount owed by now 20 states. This amount does not include accumulated interest which under the second COVID relief bill is currently waived through March 14. Other rarely used provisions in federal law also allow the state to schedule payment on the interest over a three-year period.