Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 22, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Iran, UN Watchdog Strike Deal for Monitoring Nuclear Sites
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that he reached a deal (Al Jazeera) with Iranian officials to allow the UN watchdog “necessary” verification and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities for up to three months. Still, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said access given to the IAEA under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, including snap inspections, will be fully suspended starting tomorrow, but that the Iranian agency could continue safeguards allowed by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Grossi said the agreement, which came after Iran threatened to limit nuclear inspections (RFE/RL) if the United States did not lift sanctions, “salvages the situation for now.” But the United States and Iran continue to be at odds over reviving the nuclear deal. The United States has said that Iran must return to compliance before talks can begin. Over the weekend, Iran said it is considering participating in talks with other signatories, but that the only way for the United States to return to the agreement, which it left in 2018, would be to lift sanctions on Iran. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran would seek compensation (Al Jazeera) for an estimated $1 trillion worth of damage caused by U.S. sanctions.
Analysis
“The [IAEA] has proven to be the only adult in the room so far. Here is to hoping that Iran & the US learn to be as flexible and creative in achieving their joint objective of reviving the [nuclear deal],” International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez tweets.

“[Former President Donald J.] Trump’s violation of the nuclear deal has severely discredited the notion of negotiating with the United States, let alone the prospect of a broader thaw. Putting the puzzle of U.S.-Iranian diplomacy back together will be tremendously difficult,” the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft’s Trita Parsi writes in Foreign Affairs.

Pacific Rim
China Urges U.S. to Walk Back Sanctions
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi today called on the United States (SCMP) to remove tariffs on Chinese products and sanctions on Chinese companies. He also said bilateral cooperation is needed to counter mounting global challenges, such as the pandemic and climate change. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States would maintain tariffs on China, pending a review.

CFR’s Brian K. Muzás explains why bipolarity is the wrong concept for U.S.-China relations.

New Zealand: Today marks the ten-year anniversary of an earthquake that struck the city of Christchurch (New Zealand Herald), killing nearly two hundred people. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern paid tribute to the victims (Guardian) at a memorial service.

South and Central Asia
Protests Continue in Myanmar Despite Violence
Myanmar reached a standstill today (WaPo) as workers went on strike and hundreds of thousands of people across the country protested the military junta that seized power on February 1. The rallies occurred amid an ongoing crackdown by the military, which warned it would use lethal force (Guardian). Police shot and killed two protesters on Saturday.

China/India: The countries announced that they finished withdrawing troops (Reuters) from around Pangong lake in the Himalayas as they seek to resolve a standoff over their contested border.

Middle East and North Africa
Libyan Minister Survives Assassination Attempt
Fathi Bashagha, the interior minister of Libya’s unity government, survived an assassination attempt yesterday, AFP reports. Assailants fired on the minister’s vehicle near the capital, Tripoli, an unnamed official said. Two perpetrators were arrested and another was hospitalized.
This Day in History: February 22, 1946
George F. Kennan, an American diplomat in Moscow, sends “the Long Telegram,” an eight-thousand-word telegram to the U.S. State Department detailing his views on the Soviet Union and outlining the foundation for the U.S. Cold War policy of containment.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Niger Holds Second Round of Presidential Election
Nigeriens voted yesterday in the second round of a presidential election that could lead to Niger’s first democratic power transfer since the country gained independence in 1960. However, seven election workers were killed and three others were injured when their vehicle struck a landmine (NPR) in the western region of Tillaberi.

Sudan: The country devalued its currency, fulfilling a demand (AP, Reuters) of foreign donors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but risking domestic discontent over a subsequent rise in the costs of goods and services. Sudan has one of the world’s highest annual inflation rates.

Europe
Belarusian, Russian Presidents to Meet Amid Sanctions Threat
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet today (RFE/RL) in the Russian city of Sochi to discuss economic ties, security, and other issues. The European Union could sanction Belarus and Russia today over their repression of dissent.

CFR’s Stephen Sestanovich explains how Russia’s recent protests challenge Putin.

UK: At the UN Human Rights Council today, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will call for a UN investigation (FT) of forced labor camps for Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang region. He is also expected to urge council members to take action on rights violations by Belarus, Myanmar, and Russia.

This CFR Backgrounder explains China’s repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang.

Americas
Ecuador Announces Second Candidate in Runoff Election After Weeks of Uncertainty
Ecuador’s National Electoral Council said conservative former banker Guillermo Lasso will advance (MercoPress) to the country’s April runoff presidential election, in which he will face leftist economist Andres Arauz. The third-place finisher in the first-round election on February 7 has alleged electoral fraud.

Argentina: President Alberto Fernandez called the actions (AFP) of former Minister of Health Gines Gonzalez Garcia “unforgivable” after reports that Garcia helped people skip the line to get COVID-19 vaccinations. Garcia resigned on Friday.

United States
U.S. Poised to Surpass Half a Million Coronavirus Deaths
The United States is expected to reach (WaPo) five hundred thousand reported coronavirus deaths today, the world’s highest COVID-19 death toll. However, new infections, hospitalizations, and fatalities are decreasing, and nearly 5.5 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated (Guardian) against the virus.
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