[Political, legal, and demographic changes, along with census
delays, will shape the fight for fair maps and representation.]
[[link removed]]

THE REDISTRICTING LANDSCAPE, 2021–22  
[[link removed]]

 

Michael Li
February 11, 2021
Brennan Center for Justice
[[link removed]]


*
[[link removed]]
*
[[link removed]]
*
* [[link removed]]

_ Political, legal, and demographic changes, along with census
delays, will shape the fight for fair maps and representation. _

,

 

Under the best of circumstances, the redrawing of legislative and
congressional districts every 10 years is a fraught and abuse-prone
process. But the next round of redistricting in 2021 and 2022 will be
the most challenging in recent history. Even before the Covid-19
pandemic, intense fights over representation and fair maps were all
but certain in many states due to rapid demographic change and a
weakening of the legal framework governing redistricting. Invariably,
communities of color would bear much of the brunt, facing outright
discrimination in some places and being used as a convenient tool for
achieving unfair partisan advantage in others.

Covid-19, however, has further upended the redistricting cycle by
delaying the release of data needed by states to draw maps, and in
turn delaying redistricting.

This report looks at the upcoming redistricting cycle through the lens
of four factors that will influence outcomes in each state: who
controls map drawing; changes in the legal rules governing
redistricting over the last decade; pressures from population and
demographic shifts over the same period; and the potential impact of
the Covid-19 pandemic on the 2020 Census. In each state, the
confluence of these factors will determine the risk of manipulated
maps or whether, conversely, the redistricting process will produce
maps that reflect what voters want, respond to shifts in public
opinion, and protect the rights of communities of color.

Expect a tale of two countries. In much of the country, newly enacted
reforms and divided government will make it harder to force through
partisan gerrymanders or racially discriminatory maps. In other
states, however, there may be even greater room for unfair processes
and results than in 2011, when the nation saw some of the most
gerrymandered and racially discriminatory maps in its history.

Highlights: What’s New in 2021–22?

* POLITICAL CHANGES AND REFORMS: Single-party control of map drawing
is by far the biggest predictor of redistricting abuses. For the next
round of redistricting, the good news is that single-party control has
decreased due to a combination of reforms and elections that have
resulted in divided government. In total, six states have adopted
redistricting reforms that will be used in the upcoming redistricting
cycle, including Virginia in November 2020. Meanwhile, several other
states where maps are still drawn by legislatures and that saw
egregious gerrymandering last cycle now have divided governments.
Lawmakers in these states must now compromise or forfeit their map
drawing authority to the courts — where the likelihood of fair maps
is much higher. The impact of these changes is especially notable at
the congressional level: in the upcoming cycle, Republicans will have
sole control over the drawing of just 181 congressional districts,
compared with 213 districts after the 2010 elections. (The exact
number of seats could change slightly depending on the results of the
2020 Census.)
* LEGAL CHANGES: The legal landscape, by contrast, is more ominous
this time around. Map drawing in 2021–22 will take place with a
legal framework weakened by two major Supreme Court rulings. In 2013,
the Supreme Court gutted core protections of the Voting Rights Act
in _Shelby County v. Holder_. Then, in 2019, the Court closed the
door to federal court challenges to partisan gerrymanders in _Rucho
v. Common Cause_. But there is also hopeful news. The last decade saw
new jurisprudential fronts open with wins against partisan
gerrymandering in two state courts, suggesting that state
constitutions could emerge as an alternative route to challenge
gerrymandering in the 2021–22 cycle.
* DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION CHANGES: As has always been the case,
population changes will be a crucial driver of redistricting abuses.
The South in particular has grown rapidly and become both much more
racially and politically diverse since 2011, threatening the
long-standing political status quo. Similarly, some regions have seen
population decreases or significant demographic changes and could also
see battles over adjustments to maps. But while some parts of the
country experienced major changes, large parts of the country were
remarkably stable both in terms of demographics and population change,
lowering the redistricting stakes and in turn reducing the
gerrymandering risk.
* CENSUS DELAYS: As with so many areas of American life, Covid-19
has also roiled the next round of redistricting, creating uncertainty
about when states will get the data they need to draw maps. Data
delivery being delayed until next summer (as the Census Bureau at one
point suggested) would cascade into delays to the map drawing process
in many states — in some cases significantly. A number of states,
including Iowa and Maine, would have to make constitutional or legal
changes to avoid the process defaulting to the courts. States like
Texas would be required to draw maps in a special session, where there
typically are far fewer procedural protections and oversight
opportunities. And Virginia would likely not have new maps in place in
time for its 2021 legislative elections.

States to Watch

Legend Notes

* HIGHEST-RISK STATES: These states combine single-party political
control of the redistricting process with extremely fast growth and
demographic change. Additionally, for the first time in 50 years, they
will not be required to obtain preapproval to use maps under Section 5
of the Voting Rights Act.
* OTHER HIGH-RISK STATES: These states, though they are not growing
or changing demographically as fast as the highest-risk states, were
formerly covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act and will also
draw maps this decade under single-party control.
* LIKELY IMPROVED STATES: These states adopted redistricting
reforms in the last decade (though reforms could be challenged or
ignored in some places) or saw political changes that mean map drawing
will no longer be under a single party’s control.
* OTHER STATES TO WATCH: These states saw significant nonwhite
population growth in certain regions in the last decade and could see
fights over increased representation demands for growing communities
of color.

CLICK HERE
[[link removed]]
TO DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT

_MICHAEL LI serves as senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s
Democracy Program, where his work focuses on redistricting, voting
rights, and elections. Prior to joining the Brennan Center, Li
practiced law at Baker Botts L.L.P. in Dallas for ten years. He was
the author of a widely cited blog on redistricting and election law
issues that the New York Times called “indispensable.” He is a
regular writer and commentator on election law issues, appearing on
PBS Newshour, MSNBC, and NPR, and in print in the New York
Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Roll Call, Vox, National
Journal, Texas Tribune, Dallas Morning News, and San Antonio
Express-News, among others._

_In addition to his election law work, Li previously served as
executive director of Be One Texas, a donor alliance that oversaw
strategic and targeted investments in nonprofit organizations working
to increase voter participation and engagement in historically
disadvantaged African American and Hispanic communities in Texas._

_Li received his JD with honors from Tulane Law School and an
undergraduate degree in history from the University of Texas at
Austin._

_The Brennan Center fights to make elections fair, end mass
incarceration, and preserve our liberties — in Congress, the states,
the courts, and the court of public opinion. JOIN US IN BUILDING AN
AMERICA THAT IS DEMOCRATIC, JUST, AND FREE.
[[link removed]]_

*
[[link removed]]
*
[[link removed]]
*
* [[link removed]]

 

 

 

INTERPRET THE WORLD AND CHANGE IT

 

 

Submit via web [[link removed]]
Submit via email
Frequently asked questions [[link removed]]
Manage subscription [[link removed]]
Visit xxxxxx.org [[link removed]]

Twitter [[link removed]]

Facebook [[link removed]]

 




[link removed]

To unsubscribe, click the following link:
[link removed]