The Observer said that Brexit led to a drop-off in exports to Europe in January—but the data paints a different picture

19 Feb 2021 | Full Fact's weekly news
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FACT CHECK
Did EU exports really drop 68% because of Brexit?

A report earlier this month in the Observer claimed that the volume of UK exports to the EU going through ports fell by 68% in January 2021, compared to the same month last year.

It claimed that this was mostly as a result of Brexit, as the transition period ended on 31 December.

The figure was attributed to a survey of Road Haulage Association (RHA) members. But the RHA has not responded to any further questions detailing how that figure was calculated.

Official statistics on overseas goods trade in January 2021 are due to be published on 12 March. But the Cabinet Office gave Full Fact early data.

It shows that in January 2021, the total number of outbound “roll-on roll-off” freight vehicles (vehicles which drive onto a ferry or a Channel Tunnel train and then drive off after landing in their destination) was just 27% lower than the January 2020 level, catching up towards the end of the month.

The Observer also claimed that a fall in exports was mainly due to Brexit.

But the Cabinet Office told us that goods exports to the EU increased in November and December 2020, indicating a stockpiling of goods ahead of the new year. This suggests that some of the drop off in January may have been a result of demand shifting forward to December in anticipation of difficulty with getting goods across the border.

And of course it’s worth considering the other big challenge which has affected that baseline—Covid-19.
What about exports to the rest of the world? ([link removed])
FACT CHECK
Layla Moran wrong to say that 400,000 people in the UK are "living with long Covid" ([link removed])

During Prime Minister’s Questions last week, Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran claimed that up to 400,000 people are currently living with “long Covid” in the UK.

Ms Moran, who also chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group on coronavirus, made the same claim in an interview with the Metro and in an interview on LBC.

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in December suggest that, among respondents to a UK Coronavirus Infection Survey, about 10% experienced symptoms for at least 12 weeks.

The latest government figures show around 4 million people have tested positive for Covid-19 in the UK since the start of the pandemic. Ms Moran arrived at her figure by applying the aforementioned 10% (of survey respondents who experienced symptoms for 12 weeks or more) to this 4 million figure—which gives you 400,000.

But this is an extremely crude calculation based on very limited data.

Just because someone experienced symptoms for more than 12 weeks last year, it does not necessarily mean they would still be experiencing symptoms now. But, under this calculation, 10% of everyone who had ever tested positive for Covid-19 would still be counted as sufferers of long Covid “right now”.

The ONS itself told Full Fact it hasn’t attempted to estimate the number of people living with symptoms for 12 weeks or more because it has an insufficient sample size of long Covid sufferers, meaning it would be impossible to make any reliable inferences.
Layla Moran’s response ([link removed])
In a pandemic, bad information g ([link removed]) ets in the way of effective action ([link removed])
The coronavirus pandemic has thrown the lives of millions into chaos. After the pandemic, we will need to conduct serious debates over how to repair the damage.

We need your help to ensure the response is only shaped by accurate information.

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FACT CHECK
Study did not find that vapers are 17% more likely to spread coronavirus ([link removed])

Last week, the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail both erroneously reported the findings of a study into vaping and coronavirus transmission—claiming that it increases risk of transmission by 17%.

But this wasn’t what the study actually found.

What it actually said is that so-called “high intensity vapers”—who use e-cigarettes which produce large plumes of vapour—pose an added risk to bystanders of between 5% and 17% in indoor spaces.

But these high-intensity vapers make up the minority of all UK vapers, at only about 10%. For the other 90%, the research found that they posed an increased risk of just 1%.

To put this into context, the paper found that standing near to someone who is merely speaking aloud increases your risk of catching Covid by 40-90%. If that person is also coughing, this increases to about 200%.
Little evidence of vaping risk ([link removed])
FACT CHECK
No, Covid-19 survival rate is not 99.991% among under-60s ([link removed])

A viral Facebook video has cited NHS England data to falsely claim that the Covid-19 survival rate for under-60s in the UK is 99.991%. This is wrong in a number of ways.

In particular, it has calculated the survival rate as the proportion of survivors among all under-60s in the UK.

But survival rates should instead be based on the proportion of survivors among those who have actually caught the virus.

The video also claims that there have been 4,717 Covid-19 deaths of people aged between 0 and 59 in the UK up to 21 January.

But these statistics only cover England—not the whole of the UK. They also only show the number of deaths in hospitals, meaning these numbers do not include people who died at home or in care homes or hospices.

There is currently no single recent source which shows all UK Covid-19 deaths broken down by age. But we do know that in England and Wales alone, more than 7,000 people under 60 have died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate since the start of the pandemic.
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