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John—
It is nearly a month into the Biden administration, and Trump-era sanctions on Iran are still in place. Undoubtedly, many in the community are frustrated by the lack of movement and the perpetuation of inhumane sanctions, amid a pandemic no less.
We’re concerned that President Biden may be moving too slowly on fulfilling his campaign promise of returning to the nuclear deal. The administration’s public position that it won’t act unless Iran acts is a recipe for missing this opportunity. We believe it is imperative that Biden demonstrate the political will to reverse the U.S. decision to exit the deal.
At the same time, we recognize Biden is not fully staffed, including in key offices that will structure the lifting of sanctions. Thankfully, it appears that diplomatic momentum is finally building. It has just been announced, following meetings with Europe, the Biden administration has repealed Trump's "snapback" sanctions claim at the UN and announced the U.S. would agree to join talks with Iran convened by Europe to broker a path to return. While the road ahead is still full of uncertainties, there may be a breakthrough on the horizon.
Read on for answers to some of the most burning questions arising over the future of the Iran deal and check out our full breakdown here.
What’s taking Biden so long to return to the Iran deal?
While we would have loved to see sanctions lifted on Day 1 of Biden’s presidency, and recommended as much, the Biden team is cautious and deliberate. The new Iran envoy Rob Malley has spent his first two weeks consulting with parties to the nuclear deal and other stakeholders, likely in an effort to find common ground on how the U.S. can restore the deal. The reality is that the agreement involves many parties and moving pieces, and the administration is faced with urgent domestic priorities amidst the pandemic.
Is there reason to be optimistic?
Yes! This week, Qatar’s Foreign Minister was in Tehran outlining his support for the deal; German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Swiss President Guy Parmelin spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani; and the E3 foreign ministers consulted with Secretary of State Antony Blinken today and talks to broker a return may be imminent. If Biden outlines a new course on Iran at the Munich Security Conference he will speak at tomorrow, it could further pave the way for a smooth return to the deal.
What happens if Biden misses this window?
Biden can’t keep Trump’s approach on Iran and expect a different result. Those in Iran supporting the nuclear deal can only hold out for so long before hardline voices prevail. Conservatives in the Iranian parliament have already mandated that Iran reduce access to IAEA inspectors on February 23rd if sanctions aren’t lifted. These political forces have a vested interest in preventing Rouhani from restoring the nuclear deal ahead of the June presidential election—which itself could end the window to return to the deal.
What is NIAC doing?
The nuclear deal continues to be opposed by powerful constituencies who have lied, and been proven wrong, about the agreement. That’s why we are ramping up our efforts to build support for the deal in Congress and the general public. Since President Biden’s election, we have worked with allies to encourage 150 members of Congress to call for a return to the nuclear accord, provided briefs to the administration and media to advocate for our policies, and are in regular consultation with the coalition of groups supporting a U.S. return to the deal to counter misinformation and provide political support for—or pressure on—Biden to act.
In the days and weeks ahead, we’ll be publishing additional resources explaining the benefits of the deal—both for the Iranian people and global nonproliferation and security. Likewise, we will continue to make the case for swift return with the Biden administration, ensuring they live up to their commitment to restore the agreement and pursue diplomacy to resolve tension with Iran.
The work won’t be easy, and we hope you will continue to support us every step of the way.
We'll keep you updated as we learn more.
Best,
Ryan Costello
Policy Director, NIAC
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