Washington (February 16, 2021) – Commentators have long argued that America desperately needs more immigration because Americans are not having "enough" children. However, a new analysis of Census Bureau data by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that the total fertility rate of immigrants, as well as the native-born, continued to decline through 2019 — before Covid 19 hit.

In fact, 2019 was the first year in which the total fertility rate of immigrant women (legal and illegal to­gether) dropped below the level necessary to replace the existing population. As a result, the presence of immi­grants in the country has only a modest impact on overall fertility. Moreover, we find some evidence that the presence of immigrants may actually lower the fertility of native-born women, further reducing immigration ability to raise the nation's overall fertility rate.

"The idea that immigration is the solution to Americans not having 'enough' babies has always been exaggerated by advocates," said the report's lead author, Steven A. Camarota, the Center's Director of Research. "Now with the dramatic decline in immigrant fertility, what was a weak argument has evaporated."

Among the findings:

·       The total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime given current trends, fell to 2.02 children for immigrants — below the 2.1 necessary to replace the existing population. This means that, in the long run, immigration may add to the overall aging of the American population.

·       Immigrant fertility has declined more rapidly than that of native-born women in recent years. In 2008, immigrant wom­en had a TFR of 2.75 children; by 2019 it had fallen to 2.02 — a 0.73-child decline. For native-born women, it declined from 2.07 to 1.69 — a 0.38-child decline.

·       The TFR for all women (immigrant and native-born) in America in 2019 was 1.76. Excluding immi­grants, it would be 1.69 — the rate for natives. The difference is just .06 children (4 percent), which is the impact of immigrants.

·       Measuring fertility by births per thousand also shows that fertility fell more dramatically for immigrant women of reproductive age from 76 births per thousand in 2008 to 57 births per thousand in 2019 — a decline of 19 births per thousand. This contrasts with a decline of seven births per thousand for the native-born over this time period.

·       Even if the number of immigrant women ages 15-50 doubled, along with births to this population, it would still only raise the overall national birth rate for women by an additional one birth per thousand, or by 2.1 percent.

·       Immigration has a minor impact because the difference between immigrant and native fertility is too small to significantly change the nation's overall birth rate.

·       Immigration can also add to population aging in the long-term because the fertility for every major racial/ethnic group sending large numbers of immigrants is below replacement level among the native-born generation. In 2019, about three-fourths of immigrant women in their reproductive years were either Hispanic or Asian. The TFRs of native-born Hispanic and Asian women in 2019 were 1.77 and 1.42 respectively — both well below replacement level.

·       There is some evidence that immigration reduces native fertility. We find that in larger metropolitan areas, the higher the immigrant share of the population, the fewer children native-born women have. This is the case even after con­trolling for age, education, income, race, marital status, and other factors.

·       There are a number of possible reasons why immigration might lower the fertility of native-born Americans. It could be because it drives up housing costs for families with children, lowers wages for some American workers, or strains public services relied on by families, such as local schools. All of these factors may make American couples more reluctant to have children.

·       Although immigration has only a small impact on overall fertility and aging, it has a significant impact on popula­tion size. For example, new immigrants and births to immigrants between 2000 and 2019 added 35.9 million people to the country — equal to more than three-fourths of U.S. population growth over this time period.