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* TALKING POINT, BY DR KRISTIAN NIEMIETZ
* iN THE MEDIA
* VIRAL MYTHS
* NOT ON THE HIGH STREET?
* IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
* YOU'RE INVITED

On Tuesday, the IEA published my report Viral Myths: Why we risk learning the wrong lessons from the pandemic ([link removed]) . It debunks a number of economic fallacies that have become popular since the outbreak of Covid-19, namely in the areas of public spending, trade, and healthcare.

The report turned out not to be everyone's cup of tea. Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner MP described it as a "report disgracefully attacking the NHS and NHS staff ([link removed]) ", as well as "a disgusting attack from the IEA ([link removed]) ". In an open letter to the Health Secretary, Rayner said: "I urge you to […] make a public statement to condemn this report". David Lammy, the MP for Tottenham, made a similar point. Within minutes, the IEA was trending on Twitter, and a storm of outrage ensued.

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I don’t believe in the old adage that "there is no such thing as bad publicity". Of course there is. But what I do believe is that you can sometimes weaponise unjustified bad publicity in your favour. This is what happened in this case.

As an author, I often try to see things from the perspective of the "marginal reader," that is, someone who is moderately interested in the relevant subject area, but who would not, on their own initiative, read a 37-page report on it. How do I convince that person to stop watching TikTok videos, and read my publications instead?

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It turns out that that reader likes a bit of drama. A social media outrage storm will arouse their curiosity: they will want to know what all the fuss is about. And since there was drama aplenty, my report has now already been downloaded over 8,500 times, and in its wake, even sales of my old book "Universal healthcare without the NHS" ([link removed]) have gone up again (Top 20 in the categories "Medical Administration & Policy" and "Political Economy" on Amazon UK).

Apart from the immediate press coverage around the release, the report soon received follow-up coverage in the Spectator ([link removed]-) , the Daily Mail ([link removed]) and the Telegraph ([link removed]) , among others.

So thanks for all the free publicity, Ms Rayner and Mr Lammy. Pleasure doing business with you.

Dr Kristian Niemietz
Head of Political Economy, Institute of Economic Affairs
iN THE MEDIA

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*Going viral..
After an explosive reaction to Dr Kristian Niemietz's new paper, 'Viral Myths', the IEA team sprung into action to serve some harsh truths about the NHS and the UK's Covid performance. Kristian told talkRadio presenter Mark Dolan ([link removed]) that people had deliberately misunderstood his paper to score political points. He also appeared on Mike Graham's talkRadio show ([link removed]) and Michael Portillo's Times Radio show ([link removed]) (from 8m30s) to discuss the government's NHS reforms.

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*Doing the rounds.. On Monday, IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham appeared on BBC Politics Live to discuss the day's headlines. When asked whether the public would countenance winter jabs or years-long restrictions on large gatherings, Annabel responded that they probably would, but that the government needs to set out its tolerance for risk as we start to embark on the great reopening. In an exchange with Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff, Annabel made the case for reforming and improving the NHS – which she explored further in a piece for Reaction ([link removed]) . Watch the debate here ([link removed]) .

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*Bi-weekly wisdom.. IEA Director General Mark Littlewood penned his bi-weekly column for The Times, arguing that calls for state regulation of big tech are misguided. Although it may cause concern that a few big companies wield incredible power, people should not underestimate the market's ability to bring down monopolies and empower the consumer. In the past, people feared the power of platforms like MySpace only to see them collapse later down the line. All in all, we should choose the market over political intervention. Read the full column here ([link removed]) .

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*Budget anticipation.. As the Spring Budget approaches, speculation is growing as to whether the Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going to roll back the state or continue to spend, spend, spend his way out of the economic slump. Ahead of the Budget, Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at the IEA, suggested extending Covid support beyond April. He told The Telegraph ([link removed]) : "When it was suggested the furlough scheme might end in April, we were not anticipating the third national lockdown, so there might be a case for extending it".

Commenting on Friday's GDP figures revealing the UK economy had suffered its biggest decline on record in 2020, Julian said:

"The latest UK GDP numbers were not as bad as some feared, but it would still be dangerous to raise taxes in the March Budget. This would be far too soon after a year when the economy contracted by nearly 10 per cent and with a renewed decline almost certain this quarter."

Read his full response here ([link removed]) , and his comment piece in the Daily Express here ([link removed]) .
VIRAL MYTHS

Our Head of Political Economy Dr Kristian Niemietz's report 'Viral Myths: Why we risk learning the wrong lessons form the pandemic ([link removed]) ' needs no introduction. The central tenet of the research was to urge people not to take ideological victories from the pandemic, whether on the left or the right of the political spectrum. The research debunked three commonly held assumptions about the pandemic which have become conventional wisdom in political discourse. Kristian calls this "Coronfirmation bias," an issue which he tackled directly in a piece for CapX ([link removed]) .

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It has been widely asserted that austerity hampered the UK's capacity to tackle the virus, that excessive globalisation and dependence on China is to blame for our relatively poor Covid performance, and that the NHS was the star performer of the pandemic.

However, Kristian's research suggests that these claims are wrong. The best performers in the pandemic on a number of key indicators were the four "Asian Tigers": Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. These nations have lower public spending, open global economies with strong links with China, and healthcare systems that do not resemble the NHS.

The paper does not wish to replace one set of biases with another. Instead, it demonstrates that an effective pandemic response is compatible with a variety of public spending levels, a variety of trade regimes, and a variety of healthcare systems. Ideological battles about the size and role of the state cannot be settled by a virus. Kristian wrote an article for Conservative Home explaining this point – which you can read here ([link removed]) .
NOT ON THE HIGH STREET?

Pressure is mounting on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to consider implementing a new online sales tax in the forthcoming budget. It was also reported that the Treasury is considering an "excess profits tax" on businesses that have boomed during the pandemic.

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Over on the IEA blog ([link removed]) , our Economics Fellow Julian Jessop wrote:

"There is no obvious public interest in taxing online spending more than spending on the high street. There is also little evidence that the 'online giants' are making unreasonable profits, or that digital businesses are systematically under-taxed. To cap it all, an online sales tax may not even raise a large amount of money."

In a column for Conservative Home, Emily Carver, IEA Head of Media, cast doubt over the idea that an online sales tax would help revive the high street. Rather than punishing the success of online retailers, she wrote, the government could focus on easing the burden on traditional bricks-and-mortar stores. Read her piece in full here ([link removed]) .

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

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*In Conversation with...
The Rt Hon David Davis MP made a memorable appearance on our In Conversation series this week. The Haltemprice and Howden MP pulled no punches as he discussed everything from Brexit, China-US relations, tax, regulation, and his take on the erosion of our civil liberties since the start of the pandemic. Davis told viewers that he was optimistic about the nation's future. He reminded viewers that: "In real terms, we are all wealthier than our predecessors because capitalism and liberal capitalist democracies have been a fantastic success story".

You can watch the full event here ([link removed]) .

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*History of Economics... On Monday we launched twelve new videos on economic history hosted by IEA Head of Education Dr Steve Davies. The series goes hand-in-hand with our Economics 101 series ([link removed]) which provides free, short, and informative explainer videos on a variety of topics. In History of Economics, Steve explains the fundamentals of economic history, including the industrial revolution and the growth of wealth and living standards. Whether you are a student struggling to access educational resources or you just want to polish up on your economics knowledge, watch our videos now ([link removed]) .

MAKE THE (LOCKDOWN) BREAKTHROUGH!

Looking for a lockdown project? We're swiftly approaching the deadline for our Richard Koch Breakthrough Prize – why not take part?

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The competition is looking for ideas to 'level up' Britain – and there’s a first prize of £50,000 for the winning essay. Our judges are seeking the best answers to this question:

"In the current severe economic climate, what pro-market, pro-enterprise policy would be the best way of supercharging growth, employment and living standards in 'left behind' Britain?"

Why not make lockdown work for you? You can find out all the details at
breakthroughprize.org.uk ([link removed]) .
YOU'RE INVITED

*In Conversation with.. The Rt Hon Lord Hannan of Kingsclere

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On Tuesday 23rd February, from 6-7pm, the Institute of Economic Affairs will host a discussion with The Rt Hon Lord Hannan of Kingsclere. IEA Director General Mark Littlewood will chair the discussion.

Dan Hannan was the former Conservative Member of the European Parliament for South East England from 1999 to 2020. Dan was a prominent Eurosceptic voice during the Brexit debate, being a founder of Vote Leave, and throughout his time as an MEP made the case of the UK leaving the EU. Dan is also one of Britain’s strongest advocates and champions of free trade. He currently serves on the UK Board of Trade and is President of the Initiative for Free Trade think tank. He is an author, columnist, and teaches at the University of Buckingham and the University of Francisco Marroquín.

If you would like to attend this webinar, please register by following the link here ([link removed]) or contact us directly at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])

*In Conversation with.. The Rt Hon Kwasi Kwarteng MP

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On Tuesday 2nd March, from 6-7pm, The Rt Hon Kwasi Kwarteng MP will sit down with IEA Director General Mark Littlewood for the latest in our In Conversation series, which features senior figures across public life.

Kwasi Kwarteng has been the Member of Parliament for Spelthorne since 2010. In 2018 he joined the government as Parliamentary Under-secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, before being promoted in 2019 to Minster of State for Business, Energy and Clean Growth. He is also the author of several books and holds a PhD from the University of Cambridge.

If you would like to attend this webinar, set a reminder on YouTube by following the link here ([link removed]) or contact us directly at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])

*Upcoming Sixth Form conferences

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Throughout February and March, the IEA and the Vinson Centre for the Public Understanding of Economics and Entrepreneurship at the University of Buckingham will be hosting a number of free conferences for Sixth Form students. Find out more here ([link removed]) . You can sign up for any of our planned conferences this term and if you are interested in partnering on a future event please drop Brittany a line (mailto:[email protected]?subject=Sixth%20Form%20Conference) .

* IIMR Money Webinar series

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On Wednesday 24th February, Gabriel Stein ([link removed]) of Stein Brothers (UK) will present on 'Macroeconomic forecasting and inflation leading indicators; 2021-22' as part of the Institute of International Monetary Research [at the University of Buckingham] Money Webinar Series. You can register here ([link removed]) .

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