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45% Chance of Less Popular Candidate Becoming President

The National Popular Vote compact would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

If the 2020 presidential election is within a 1% margin, the less popular candidate has a 45% chance of becoming President, according to a just-released University of Texas Electoral College Study.

The presidential elections of 2000 and 2016 were controversial in part because the candidate who had the most votes did not win. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the Electoral College after losing the popular vote by about 537,000. And in 2016, Republican Donald Trump won more electoral votes than Democrat Hillary Clinton, but lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million.

What are the odds of this happening again, especially twice in the past two decades? “Higher than you probably think,” said UT Austin economist Michael Geruso, lead author of the study.

“The probability of inversion is very tightly linked to the expected closeness of the race. And the last couple of decades have featured some of the closest presidential races in U.S. history,” Geruso said. “To the extent you think 2020 will be a close race, you should be prepared that an inversion is likely. That goes for any future election as well.”

In fact, the researchers estimate that if someone loses the popular vote by within 1%, or 1.3 million votes, he or she has a 45% chance of winning the election.

“Many factors contribute to inversions. Popular vote totals depend on the number of voters, but electors are allocated based on the number of persons in the last census — including children and adults who cannot vote,” Geruso said. “In short, only relying on a national popular vote to decide the presidency would eliminate the chance of mismatch between the president and the popular vote winner.” Learn more

HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM

State laws that award all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate getting the most votes inside each state are the reason it is possible to win the Presidency without getting the most votes nationwide.

The state-by-state winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes is not in the U.S. Constitution.

Winner-take-all was enacted by the states under their authority under Article II of the U.S. Constitution, which says, "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors...."

The winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes was not the Founding Fathers' choice. Winner-take-all was never debated at the Constitutional Convention or mentioned in the Federalist Papers. It was used by only three states in the nation's first presidential election in 1789 (and repealed by all three by 1800).

State winner-take-all laws may be changed in the same way as they were originally enacted -- namely by action of the state legislature. It does not take an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to change a state law. Indeed, the winner-take-all method was not enacted by means of a federal constitutional amendment.

The National Popular Vote interstate compact will go into effect when enacted by states with a majority of the presidential electors—that is, 270 of 538. After the compact comes into effect, each individual voter in all 50 states and DC will acquire a direct vote in the choice of all of the presidential electors from all of the states that enacted the compact. The presidential candidate supported by the most voters in all 50 states and DC will therefore win a majority of the presidential electors in the Electoral College (at least 270), and therefore become President.

The National Popular Vote bill is an achievable political goal. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia have already used their constitutional powers to replace current winner-take-all laws with the National Popular Vote interstate compact. These 16 jurisdictions have 196 electoral votes. This is only 74 short of the 270 needed to activate the bill.

The bill has been enacted into law by 5 small jurisdictions (Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the District of Columbia), 8 medium-sized states (Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington state), and 3 big states (California, Illinois, and New York). It has also passed one house in 8 additional states with 75 electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK). A total of 3,408 state legislators among all 50 states have endorsed it.

LEARN MORE

National Popular Vote web site has 14 explanatory videos
Answers to 131 myths
Cooper Union debate with Neal Peirce, author of The People's President; Dr. John Koza, Chair of National Popular Vote; Tara Ross, author of 3 books defending the current Electoral College system; and Trent England, Executive Vice-President of the Oklahoma Council on Public Affairs.
C-SPAN interview with Dr. John Koza
Former Michigan Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis speaks in favor of National Popular Vote on NBC
NPR debate on 1A show between Dr. John Koza and Tara Ross
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THINGS YOU CAN DO

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