Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 10, 2021
Top of the Agenda
U.S. Navy Carries Out Exercise in South China Sea
Two U.S. aircraft carrier groups held joint drills in the South China Sea amid tensions between Washington and Beijing, which claims much of the waterway. The operation was the first of its kind (Al Jazeera) since July and occurred days after a U.S. vessel conducted a so-called freedom of navigation operation in the sea, drawing ire from China. In a call with reporters, the carriers’ commanders said Chinese military capacity in the South China Sea has recently increased (FT) but emphasized that the joint exercise did not target any country.
 
China’s Foreign Ministry pledged to take “necessary measures” to defend the country’s sovereignty and security. Chinese state media also suggested that the exercises were symbolic, rather than for a military purpose, a claim the U.S. commanders denied. The United States and its allies have increased pressure (SCMP) on China over the South China Sea. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that the United States will hold China “accountable for its efforts to threaten stability in the Indo-Pacific.”
Analysis
“There is the possibility of an accidental sea or air collision, but it’s unlikely a war will break out,” Nanjing University’s Zhu Feng tells the South China Morning Post.
 
“The United States has a strong interest in preventing China from asserting control over the South China Sea. Maintaining free and open access to this waterway is not only important for economic reasons, but also to uphold the global norm of freedom of navigation,” Georgetown University’s Oriana Skylar Mastro writes in a CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S. Navy’s role in foreign policy.

Pacific Rim
Australian Man Admits to Aiding North Korea
A South Korean–born Australian man pleaded guilty at the New South Wales Supreme Court to violating international sanctions by trying to broker the sales of goods including coal, arms, and petroleum for North Korea in late 2017. The transactions were unsuccessful (AFP).

South and Central Asia
Twitter Blocks Accounts Related to Indian Farmer Protests
The social media giant announced that it would block most of the accounts it had previously blocked, then permitted, after the Indian government said the users were inciting violence amid mass protests by farmers. New Delhi had threatened legal action (WSJ) against the company if it did not block the accounts, which will be restricted only within India.
 
Afghanistan: U.S. military forces in Afghanistan had their first year without a combat death (TOLO) in two decades. However, the Taliban has said it could still target U.S. service members if the United States violates its 2020 peace agreement with the group.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S.-Taliban peace deal.

Middle East and North Africa
Iran Suggests It Could Seek Nuclear Arms
Iran’s intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, hinted that the country would try to obtain nuclear weapons (NYT) if U.S. sanctions are not removed. A U.S. State Department spokesperson called the comments, which break from Iran’s long-standing denial that it wants nuclear weaponry, “very concerning.” New Israeli intelligence indicates Iran would need about two years to build a nuclear bomb itself.
 
This CFR timeline tracks U.S.-Iran relations.
 
Syria: The UN Security Council failed to negotiate a joint declaration about Syria, reportedly after Russia blocked talks (Al Jazeera) on the matter. The declaration was intended to revive deadlocked efforts to bring peace to Syria, where more than five hundred thousand people have died in a nearly decade-long conflict.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Study: Air Pollution Has Decreased in Northern Part of Region
A new study found that northern Sub-Saharan Africa’s air quality has improved (RFI) over the last fifteen years. The finding defies previous evidence that showed pollution increases with rapid development.
 
Uganda: The Supreme Court denied an application by the opposition leader known as Bobi Wine to amend his petition challenging President Yoweri Museveni’s January reelection. The court said Wine’s additions duplicated (Daily Monitor) what was already in the petition.

Europe
EU Considers Sanctions on Russia
During an address to the European Parliament, European Union Minister for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell raised the possibility (RFE/RL) of sanctions on Russia, which he said is on a “worrisome, authoritarian route,” for the jailing of opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Still, Borrell warned against a lasting EU-Russia confrontation.
 
Turkey: Defense Minister Hulusi Akar suggested the country would be willing to compromise over its acquisition of Russian-made S-400 missiles, which the United States opposed. He said that in return, Turkey would expect the United States (Al-Monitor) to reevaluate its support of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish force that has helped the United States fight the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria but that Turkey sees as part of a militant insurgency.

Americas
U.S. Monitors Haiti’s Political Instability
The U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince expressed concern (MercoPress) about possible damage to Haiti’s institutions after recent political turmoil and said it is reviewing the legality of a new executive order that removed three Supreme Court judges. Haiti’s opposition had appointed (LAHT) one of the ousted judges as the country’s interim president, arguing that President Jovenel Moise’s mandate was over.
 
Bolivia: Health-care workers in the country’s Santa Cruz region, where hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, began a two-day strike (Al Jazeera) to push officials to enforce lockdown measures. Bolivia has seen 229,000 COVID-19 cases.

United States
Senate to Proceed With Impeachment Trial
The Senate voted 56-44 to continue with the impeachment trial of former President Donald J. Trump, rejecting an argument (WaPo) by Trump’s defense team that the proceedings are unconstitutional because he is no longer in office. Before the vote, senators were shown a video juxtaposing Trump’s rhetoric with scenes from the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, which Trump is accused of inciting. The trial will proceed today.
This Day in History: February 10, 1962
American CIA pilot Francis Gary Powers is released by the Soviets in exchange for Colonel Rudolf Abel, a senior intelligence officer. The exchange takes place at the Glienicke Bridge in Berlin.
Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street - New York, NY 10065
Council on Foreign Relations

.

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp