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They say a week is a long time in politics -- and this
was no ordinary week.

In the past few days, the Israeli election race has undergone a
dramatic shift: Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid has overtaken former Likud
MK Gideon Sa’ar as the main challenger to Prime Minister Netanyahu, and
is now considered the most likely alternative to serve as the next
prime minister.

Recent polling has shown a continued decline for Sa’ar’s New Hope
party, alongside a moderate uptick in support for Lapid’s secular,
centrist Yesh Atid. Lapid, who founded Yesh Atid in 2012, is a former
TV presenter and news anchor, a firm centrist and has been highly
critical of both the left and right in Israeli politics. As a
hard-nosed, security-minded supporter of a two-state solution, Lapid
has said “we're not looking for a happy marriage with the Palestinians,
but for a divorce agreement we can live with.”

With Lapid suddenly thrust into the spotlight opposite Netanyahu, many
pundits expect the race will now settle into a more traditional
contest, with Netanyahu painting Lapid as inexperienced, risky and
'far-left' while Lapid rails against the corruption, chaos and
increasing extremism of Netanyahu’s leadership.
Battle Lines Set as Parties Hit Final Merger Deadline
[2]Netanyahu
Midnight on February 4 marked the deadline for Israeli political
parties to finalize their tickets and strike any last-minute
joint-ticket arrangements. While this usually heralds a flurry of
last-minute announcements and dealmaking, the action this year has been
minimal.

There’s been little consolidation on the left, with Meretz and Labor
appearing confident enough in their ability to pass the 3.25% Knesset
entry threshold separately. The resurgence of the struggling Labor
Party under the leadership of Merav Michaeli has been a significant
story in this election. Early polls showed Israel’s once-dominant
political party being completely wiped out, but the most recent numbers
suggest the party is on track to gain seats.

Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai declared his departure from the race after he
failed to achieve an agreement to join Labor. The same goes for Ofer
Shelah, who separated from Yesh Atid after his demand to hold primaries
was not accepted by Yair Lapid. Both decided to quit in order to not
waste votes after multiple polls predicted their parties falling below
the threshold.

The Joint List of majority-Arab parties has splintered, with three of
the four parties running together, while the Islamic party Ra’am, which
has pursued closer ties with Prime Minister Netanyahu and been at odds
with the progressive social tilt of some of the other parties, will go
it alone and risk falling below the threshold.

In the center, there have been no major mergers between the parties,
which is a risk mainly for Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, teetering on
the edge of the vote threshold in recent polls. On the far right, a
trio of extremist parties have formed a joint slate, including Bezalel
Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, the anti-Arab Otzma Yehudit party
and the anti-LGBT Noam party. The merger was reportedly brokered by
Prime Minister Netanyahu himself to prevent any of the parties from
slipping below the threshold and letting far-right votes go to waste.

All in all, thirty-nine separate parties submitted lists but only a
dozen or so stand to gain enough votes to win any seats in the Knesset.
Who Is Yair Lapid?
[3]Yair Lapid
After working in the Los Angeles television industry in the 1980s, Yair
Lapid -- the son of a reporter turned politician -- began a career in
journalism. He also made a name for himself as an author and
screenwriter for television.

Following the trajectory of his father, Lapid entered politics in 2012,
launching a centrist secular party that dramatically outperformed
expectations. The success launched Lapid to the helm of the Finance
Ministry.

It was a honeymoon that didn’t last. Netanyahu fired Lapid two years
later and support for his party dropped to around 15% of voters. In
contrast to many other parties, however, Yesh Atid’s support levels
have remained relatively steady ever since.
The Battle to Define Yair Lapid
As Yair Lapid emerges as the strongest competitor to Prime Minister
Netanyahu, left-of-center Israelis are debating the merits of strategic
voting for the centrist Yesh Atid party ahead of more liberal and
progressive parties like Labor and Meretz. Much of the debate centers
around perceptions of the 57-year old, Tel Aviv-based politician
himself.

In Haaretz, Editor in Chief Aluf Benn praised Lapid for choosing to
oppose Netanyahu’s controversial, Jewish nationalist Nation-State law,
for uniting with Benny Gantz and Blue and White in an effort to defeat
Netanyahu and for splitting from that same coalition once Gantz agreed
to join a Netanyahu-led government. In the same paper, columnist Tchia
Dov hit out at Lapid’s condemnations of progressive advocacy groups,
refusal to join a government with Arab parties and use of an anti-Arab
slur, for which he later apologized.

Less nuance is likely from the Netanyahu camp, which has repeatedly
sought to define all centrist parties as leftists who will be weak on
national security.
What Can We Expect?
With left of center parties gaining in the polls, and Likud slightly
dipping, a Channel 13 survey showed that anti-Netanyahu parties are on
track to reach a 61 seat majority.

But there is little uniting the anti-Netanyahu parties beyond being,
well, anti-Netanyahu. A coalition would require an alliance of center,
right and left-wing parties, including Gideon Sa’ar’s ‘New Hope,’ which
is largely seen as a Likud photocopy under different leadership. And if
any of the anti-Netanyahu parties lose a tiny bit of support, a
coalition could require the participation of left-wing Meretz, making
this union of unlikely bedfellows even harder to imagine. Clearly much
can change before the election and anything remains possible, including
another outcome where no party has a clear path to a majority.



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