Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 4, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Washington Extends Sole Arms Control Pact With Moscow
Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States extended (AFP) the 2011 New START treaty, its last remaining arms control agreement with Russia. The treaty was set to expire tomorrow. Russian President Vladimir Putin approved extending the treaty—which limits the countries’ nuclear arsenals—last week, and it will remain in effect until 2026. The Donald J. Trump administration had sought to conditionally extend the treaty, but negotiations failed (WaPo).
 
Moscow welcomed Washington’s move and expressed interest in further dialogue on arms control, a goal Blinken likewise noted (CNBC). Nonetheless, Blinken said the Joe Biden administration is “clear-eyed” about the challenges Russia poses and pledged to hold the country accountable. A slate of thorny issues are at the forefront (CNN) of the bilateral relationship, including U.S. opposition to Russia’s imprisonment of dissident Alexey Navalny, reports that Russia offered bounties for the killings of U.S. soldiers, and concerns that Russia was involved in a massive cyberattack on U.S. government and private entities. 
Analysis
“President Biden ordered...a sweeping review of Russia’s role in the SolarWinds hack and proposed that the New START treaty...be extended for five years. This places the Biden administration in a difficult position, seeking to both punish Russia for its extensive hacking operation against the U.S. government and private sector and preserve limitations on nuclear weapons,” CFR’s Adam Segal writes.
 
“This treaty not only prevents a needless arms race between Russia and the United States but also establishes verification measures that provide valuable information about Russia’s nuclear weapons and their modernization. The treaty’s limitations are especially advantageous to the United States, since Moscow has invested heavily in the development of nuclear weapons while Washington has not,” Michael McFaul writes for Foreign Affairs.

Pacific Rim
Biden, Moon Agree to Counter North Korea
In their first call since the U.S. presidential inauguration, President Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to work together on North Korea (Yonhap), among other issues. Seoul said the countries will develop a “comprehensive” strategy on Pyongyang, aim to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, and seek to promote lasting regional peace.
 
CFR’s Scott A. Snyder explains what kind of North Korea Biden will face.
 
Japan: Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori apologized for making sexist comments (Kyodo, Reuters), but he did not cede to public pressure for him to step down as head of the organizing committee for the Tokyo Olympic Games.

South and Central Asia
India Pressures Twitter to Re-block Accounts Linked to Protests
India’s government threatened Twitter with legal penalties if the social media platform does not re-suspend (FT) accounts posting content related to ongoing protests over agriculture laws. Twitter blocked and then unblocked such accounts earlier this week. Meanwhile, Washington urged the government (Al Jazeera) and protesters to resolve the dispute through “dialogue.”
 
Myanmar: Citing a need to ensure stability, the military junta blocked access (Reuters) to Facebook, a rallying platform for the opposition, until February 7. The United Nations intends to pressure Myanmar so that the coup fails, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.
 
CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick lays out potential policy responses to Myanmar’s coup.

Middle East and North Africa
IMF Warns of Another ‘Lost Decade’ for the Arab World
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Middle East director told the Financial Times that Arab countries could face another “lost decade” if they do not implement reforms and make investments to address their long-standing economic woes, which the pandemic has exacerbated.
 
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the IMF, the world’s controversial financial firefighter.
 
Iran/United States: The International Court of Justice ruled (Al-Monitor) that it has the jurisdiction to hear a lawsuit filed by Iran in 2018 that accuses the United States of violating the countries’ 1955 Treaty of Amity by imposing sanctions on Iran.

Sub-Saharan Africa
ICC Convicts Ugandan Rebel Commander
The International Criminal Court (ICC) convicted Ugandan Dominic Ongwen (Al Jazeera), a former commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebel group, of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Ongwen was previously a victim of war crimes, a first for the court, as he had been a child soldier in the LRA after the group abducted him.
 
This CFR Backgrounder explains the role of the ICC.
 
Tanzania: President John Magufuli called for the amendment of laws (Citizen) that require court judgments to be written in English, which he said reinforces colonialism. He argued they should be written in Kiswahili so more Tanzanians can understand them.

Europe
Belgian Court Convicts Iranian Diplomat in Bomb Plot
An Antwerp court sentenced an Iranian diplomat (BBC) to twenty years in jail for his role in a plot to bomb a 2018 rally held by an exiled opposition group near Paris. An Iranian official has not been tried for terrorism in the European Union since Iran’s 1979 revolution.

Americas
Canada Designates the Proud Boys a Terrorist Group
Canada designated thirteen new groups—including the Proud Boys, a white nationalist organization that is active in Canada and the United States—as terrorist entities. No other country has made (CBC) such a designation against the Proud Boys, which was linked to the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol last month.
 
Mexico: The country has stopped accepting migrant families who were turned back from the United States under a pandemic-related order from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Washington Post reports. More migrants have instead been released into the United States.

United States
Republican Lawmakers Face Criticism
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) rebuked Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) for espousing conspiracy theories and endorsing the executions of Democrats, but he stopped short (NYT) of punishing her. House Democrats are expected to move today to revoke Greene’s committee assignments. Separately, House Republicans voted against rescinding Representative Liz Cheney’s (R-WY) leadership role over her support of Trump’s impeachment.

Global
COVAX Unveils Plan for Distributing COVID-19 Vaccines
A vaccine access initiative co-led by the World Health Organization (WHO) published its plan to distribute an initial 337 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, which could allow (Al Jazeera) 145 countries to immunize around 3 percent of their populations by mid-year. The initiative, known as COVAX, will allocate doses based on countries’ population sizes.
This Day in History: February 4, 1945
U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin hold the Yalta Conference to discuss post-war Germany and Europe, terms of Soviet entry into the war in the Pacific, and the operation of the United Nations.
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